My guess is that if it goes up 10+ cents Wed on high volume, there there is some real news we just don't know yet. That is just too large a percentage increase in price in too short of a period of time to be random accumulation, given recent headwinds (the no stop at interim, large dilution recently). If it is real news, options I see are:
1) Leak from DMC that primary outcome was positive, and they are just waiting on secondaries to become more robust,
2) New BP partnership (possibly contingent on positive R-I results) to replace Kowa
3) Outright buyout.
4) Possible patent news, NCE, mentioned recently
5) Expanded labeling for V
6) Huge manipulations by hidden hands for unknown purposes (other than obviously to make money)
7) Something totally out of left field re: a new or ongoing V trial not related to R-I.
I think odds of #3 in absence of R-I results is slim.
I think #1 is plausible, but no idea of odds.
I think #2 will definitely happen at some point within the year (i.e., they will not renew with Kowa when agreement expires), but whether it is now, who knows.
I think #4 does not seem like enough good news to drive price rise and volume recently
I think #5 is conceivable, and appears consistent with what has happened to some other companies (as noted on board previously). However, it would seem surprising to me given that there has been no company guidance that they are seeking this, which is not information that they would seem compelled to withhold.
I guess that leaves #1, #2, #7, as most likely in my view, with #6 (manipulations) next in order of likelihood. I would not bet on any of these though.
