Now here comes my take on current situation:
1. There has been no change in the status of Reliance rail. They are still warning about this , but based on info from Denny this is a false worry on 800 million mismatch etc. There are other ssr's that amount to what 1.5 billion in total that may be worry but they are rated higher than Reliance Rail. Some of those Chilean toll roads are what bbb?
2. I still think we worry, talk too much about Puerto Rico. Not something that's going to amount to more than 20%-30% loss and it's already reserved for , and they even have purchased some bonds to offset the positions. I thought they said holding bonds increases exposure. Does not seem logical but may be for accounting purposes.
3. There is still 698 million in loss adjustment expenses for Rmbs. In operating supplements this is netted by the 277 million in cash flow certificates . This is roughly 300-400 million that would seem to me to be a pretty certain loss since it's rmbs backed by real estate. Of course most of this would be offset by winning the Greenpoint litigation ,but some recovery is already assumed in those figures.
4. There's still 2 billion plus in claims paying resources and perhaps half of that or more belongs to common or perhaps more as a result of the restructuring. I find it hard to imagine more than 400 million in losses , mostly from rmbs but we still have to run around warning the sky is falling until it doesn't. Then we have to have Nyisd certify the sky did not fall.
5. When 4# is completed the real book value will be allowed to be given back to shareholders plus pay off note holders. $6 plus or minus Greenpoint plus mc Quarrie plus toll roads plus Detroit property Plus how much of the Billion in tax losses will be recoverable.
6. I may not understand the situation even close to Denny or many other's. I may come up with $10 per share , others may be all the way between $ 5 to 15$. Who cares? 5> 1.46. Denny will explain to us(then change his estimates based on new news) whether the" bridge" can withstand 3.5 times or 20 times more weight than the maximum traffic on the bridge. My intuition let's me feel safe using the bridge. For your amusement the company is still saying the bridge is not safe. They are sand bagging for the New York insurance department and the accountants in the financials.
7. That's my current opinion of "The Margin of Safety" of Syncora.