Oil & Gas - Energy - Commodities - Resources (OILBRENT)

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Peek Into Crude Oil Future Through Futures

* August 13, 2016

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of August 9, 2016. Change is week-over-week.

Crude oil: Saudi Arabia pumped a record 10.7 million barrels per day in July, and Iran has pushed up production to 3.9 mb/d. In July, OPEC’s crude production rose by 46,000 b/d m/m to 33.1 mb/d. OPEC, along with Russia, is seeing an increase in production. Mexico and the U.S. are going the other way.

In the week ended last Friday, U.S. crude production dropped by another 15,000 b/d to 8.4 mb/d – a five-week low. Production is down meaningfully since peaking at 9.61 mb/d in the June 5th week last year.

Stocks of both gasoline and distillates dropped – the former by 2.8 million barrels to 235.4 million barrels and the latter by two million barrels to 151.2 million barrels. Gasoline stocks have been drawn down by 23.3 million barrels since February 12th this year.

Crude imports dropped, too, by 334,000 b/d to 8.4 mb/d, but the prior week was the highest since October 19, 2012.

Refinery utilization fell by 1.1 percentage points to 92.2 percent – a seven-week low.

Crude stocks jumped 1.1 million barrels to 523.6 million barrels. Inventory is now up 4.1 million barrels in the past three weeks – although down 19.8 million barrels from the April 29th high of 543.4 million barrels, which was the highest since the all-time high 545.2 million barrels in October 1929.

Last week produced a hammer candle on spot West Texas Intermediate crude. This week, it struggled to build on it … until Saudi oil minister’s Thursday remarks about possible action to stabilize prices in OPEC’s informal meeting in late September. The jawboning worked. Spot WTI rallied six percent in that session, breaking out of $42.50-$43.50 resistance, and rallied another 2.3 percent on Friday. Will it stick?

Currently net long 266.9k, down 8.4k.



http://www.hedgopia.com/cot-peek-into-future-through-futures-56/

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