FWIW:
Quote:
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COARSE GRAINS: Projected 2016/17 U.S. feed grain supplies are increased this month with
higher forecast corn, sorghum, barley, and oats production. Corn production is forecast at a
record 15.2 billion bushels, up 613 million from the July projection. The season’s first surveybased
corn yield forecast, at 175.1 bushels per acre, is up 7.1 bushels from last month’s trendbased
projection and above the record 171.0 bushels in 2014/15. The Crop Production report
indicates that nearly all Corn Belt states, with the exception of Minnesota and South Dakota, are
forecast to have yields above a year ago. Sorghum production is forecast 55 million bushels
higher with the forecast yield 8.4 bushels per acre above last month’s projection.
WASDE-556-2
U.S. corn supplies for 2016/17 are projected at a record 16.9 billion bushels, up 1.5 billion from
the prior year with the larger crop and small increases in beginning stocks and imports. Ending
stocks for 2015/16 are raised 5 million bushels reflecting a larger import projection and offsetting
usage changes. Imports are raised as the pace of organic corn imports through June has been
above expectations. Corn use for ethanol production in 2015/16 is lowered 25 million bushels,
based on the latest indications from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report. An
offsetting 25-million-bushel increase is made to corn exports supported by the recent robust pace
of shipments and sales.
Total U.S. corn use for 2016/17 is projected 300 million bushels higher at a record 14.5 billion.
Feed and residual use is raised 175 million bushels with the larger crop and lower expected
prices. Exports are projected 125 million bushels higher, reflecting the relative competitiveness
of U.S. corn on the world market and large new-crop outstanding sales. Corn ending stocks for
2016/17 are projected 328 million bushels higher and, if realized, would be the highest since
1987/88. The projected range for the season-average corn price received by producers is
lowered 25 cents on both ends to $2.85 to $3.45 per bushel. This would be down 45 cents at the
midpoint from the $3.55 to $3.65 per bushel range now expected for 2015/16. The all barley price
is raised this month based on early indications of prices received by farmers for malting barley.
Foreign coarse grain supplies for 2016/17 are projected 5.1 million tons higher this month with a
2.3-million-ton increase in beginning stocks and a 3.0-million-ton increase in production. Foreign
corn carryin is up, mostly reflecting lower 2015/16 corn feeding in Indonesia, Canada, and
Ukraine as 2015/16 corn production increases for the EU and South Africa offset a further
reduction for Brazil. Foreign corn production for 2016/17 is raised 2.1 million tons with increases
for Argentina, India, and Mexico more than offsetting reductions for the EU and Canada. Corn
area is raised in Argentina on an expected reduction in planted area for wheat and small grains.
For India, corn area is increased as favorable rainfall has boosted plantings to date as reported
in the latest government statistics. Abundant summer rainfall in Mexico boosts corn yield
prospects, but persistent dryness in Ontario reduces the outlook for production in Canada. EU
corn production is lowered mostly on reductions for Spain and France.
Global coarse grain consumption for 2016/17 is raised 8.9 million tons this month with higher
corn use in the United States accounting for half of the increase. Outside the United States, corn
feeding is raised for Mexico, India, and the EU. Partly offsetting is a 1.0-million-ton reduction in
corn feeding for Indonesia, where government import licensing policy is expected to reduce corn
imports. Global coarse grain trade is raised reflecting increases for corn and to a lesser extent
barley. Global 2016/17 coarse grain ending stocks are projected 13.4 million tons higher
reflecting larger corn and barley stocks. Global corn stocks are projected 12.4 million tons higher
with the United States accounting for two-thirds of the increase.
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CORN
