Alimera Sciences Inc (ALIM)

[rancher64]

2017 Valuation

The way ALIM grabbing market shares, I see $70M+ sales easy in 2017. And positive cash flow to fund ILUVIEN's other indications Phase-3. That could cost around $15M over 2/3 years - and all will be funded thru positive cash flow generated from 2017 onwards.

With such sales growth and large DME market, ALIM could hist $500M+ annual revenue in 5 years. At end of 2017, with around $70M+ revenue, what could be the market cap? High potency bio-tech sales 7 to 10 times forward sales. So at 7 times forward sales, by end of 2017, ALIM should have market cap of $70M X 7 = $490M ($500M approx). Total number of O/S 45M , so it would be $10 to $11 per share.

ALIM is a buyout target for sure. If big pharmas bid sometimes in 2018 and ALIM's market cap hovers around $500M to $600M range, I bet the buyout could easily happen for $2B atleast. That's $45/sh. Recently JAZZ pharma bought out CPXX for $1.2B ($30/sh) and CPXX has not made any sales yet, its patient population is tiny and peak revenue only $200M.

ALIM can grow independently with ILUVIEN and can be multi-billion dollar company over next 5 years, but I doubt it will be around that long - ALIM will be bought out in 2/3 years for sure.