Jess, Vid, et al, Again, I appreciate all here who contribute with logic, ideas, information, fact based theories and more as for me it is essential to keeping the faith and persevering with Ariad in a healthy way.
Like most, I have had my anxious times (albeit almost 3 years now for me) and have come to the following theory of sorts:
1. Denner is patient and knows what he is doing in "staging" both the accumulation of shares and timing along with providing (management & BOD changes along with rolling out the science in a planned fashion) leadership and plan (even though the plan is unknown to us here). Of course he is well known in the industry and the other "players" (institutions) are not only following his lead (and perhaps counsel at some legal level) but also part of the plan. They are all IN at levels that range from the high 4's to the high 7's (maybe 8's in some cases) and in their mind are almost assured of a 2X (it seems that we all agree here at least that a BO would be at least 14-15) at least.
2. So with that assumption, "they" are letting the shorts play their games in the 7-9 range and buying some time in setting the stage with maneuvering (ASCO news, Brig, Incyte Europe, management changes and more) so that they can continue to allow "the plan" to set up. Absolutely, this takes patience and discipline which they can all afford because they know the plan and can all get on board. Let's face it this is perhaps a once in a decade opportunity....."company with a pps in the $20's has their only drug pulled and the pps drops to $2....relatively quickly thereafter the drug is reinstated EXCEPT this provides an ideal opportunity to not only load up but get involved, make huge changes and set the stage for a 3x-XX return on the post "plunged" pps."
3. Now everything is in place and is the good part. There are 30M+ shorts who are temporarily in the way and the "big boys" still have some dry powder to turn the switch at will when the time is right and for sure they are not taking that step until the setup is ripe. All it will take is for more institutional buying to come in and the shorts will be squeezed without mercy as they (the shorts) don't have nearly the amount of ammunition (money to continue their games) as the long players in the mix. IMHO, right now the big boys are playing cat and mouse in allowing the shorts to keep going in the $7-9 range YET in the end when they "want to" the game is over. For some reason, (perhaps out of my intellectual range), the 7-9 range is providing a purpose in buying time, not showing the hand and more in the saga that lies ahead.
4. This is ONLY my take at this moment in time and I am so grateful for all here (many who know so much more about Ariad and who have been here for a decade or more) who have shared what they know and think. As every day passes, I am more and more convinced that very good things are in store. Short term (with the move in recent days) please view with caution as we have watched this movie before (up and down between literally the high 4's at year end to the mid nine's not long ago) as the shorts are STILL in control of the short term pps.
My point in all of this is WAIT with patience. IMHO the bigger drug companies are increasingly pressured to GROW and with that acquisitions are one of the quickest ways to achieve that mandate (literally by stockholders and BOD'S). ARIAD who is hardly ideal (as pointed out by 2da and BR, etc with their previous history, balance sheet and more) IMHO is a very ripe target for all the positive reasons as espoused by many here. The valuation IMHO of Ariad is not about balance sheets or net sales levels but more about it's future potential as an add on for the future stream of expected earnings and volume in a bigger player.
As always thanks for listening and sorry if this got too long. All IMHO
