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Tuesday, 06/14/2016 1:13:49 PM

Tuesday, June 14, 2016 1:13:49 PM

Post# of 13692
One Trillion dollars!

That's how much more this company is worth since it filed for BK in my estimates.

I looked at the company's 2016 Annual Report (p. 10) and it's latest 10Q filed last May (p. 55).

At the end of 2015, the company had 77.9 millions of barrels of oil reserves, 61 millions of barrels of natural gas liquids, and 1,113,800 millions of cubic feet of natural gas. The May 10Q claimed that at the end of March, oil was at $43.93/barrel, natural gas liquids at $10.73/barrel, and natural gas at $1.61 per million cubic feet. I am assuming in its BK Plan & Disclosure Statement that the company used these stats, or something close to them to assess the company's equity. Again, we need Exhibits D, E, & F of the Disclosure Plan to see their math.

At any rate, if you do the math, at the end of March, the company roughly had proven reserves worth $1.8 trillion dollars.

As of today, all of these commodity prices have gone up. Oil is now at $48.30/barrel, natural gas liquids are now almost doubled at $20.50/barrel, and natural gas is now at $2.51 per million cubic feet.

If you do the math, that means, as of today, the company's proven reserves are now worth an additional $1.014 trillion dollars. Again, that's a rough estimate because I'm sure production since January till today has lowered the reserves that are documented in the Annual Report.

The big change in the company's equity is not so much because of rising oil prices, it's really because of the rise in natural gas prices. The company's reserves of natural gas are so huge that if natural gas rises by just a penny, the company is becomes worth another $10 million!

Also, if oil rises by one dollar, the company becomes worth another $80 million, because of those oil reserves.

So, I think given the rebound in both oil and natural gas in the weeks since the company filed BK, the company's equity is now much, much larger and there should be a very strong case for not cancelling our shares.

You can get the 2016 Annual Report here:
http://d1lge852tjjqow.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001349436/c72684c1-3ff4-46b2-b25b-7795f680cf89.pdf?noexit=true

And the May 10Q here:
http://d1lge852tjjqow.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001349436/4cbd2bb3-8097-4044-91fd-aa307c620630.pdf?noexit=true

And here are my sources for today's commodity prices:
http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/crude-oil.aspx
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EER_EPLLPA_PF4_Y44MB_DPG&f=D
https://www.oilcrudeprice.com/natural-gas-price/

I also have a spreadsheet of all this, if anyone is interested.

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