Why the upcoming animal trials will be successful
For anyone not familiar with BSTG, they commenced animal studies with Mayo clinic on January 22 and Feb 2. The study results, which are very translatable to humans, are expected to be announced mid May. In the company website they state that they are trying to position themselves as a better treatment option for the devastating oesophageal cancer which currently has limited treatment.
From the company website:
"For the first time, Biostage is developing radically new ways to treat these life-threatening conditions. Clinical trials are being designed with the potential to demonstrate improved mortality rates, reduced complications, and enhanced patient quality of life."
-The key here is "Clinical trials are being designed with the potential to demonstrate improved mortality rates".
and again from the website:
"Esophagectomy, the current standard of care for resectable esophageal cancer, is a complex surgical resection requiring stomach “pull up” or the use of an intestinal segment that is resected with its arteries and veins and then repositioned in the chest to become the replacement esophagus. Esophagectomy, followed by stomach “pull up” or intestinal interposition, carries a mortality rate at 90 days that can be as high as 19%."
-the key here is "mortality rate at 90 days that can be as high as 19%."
Clearly we can all agree that they are going after improving the current mortality rate.
On April 22 they announced hiring a director for quality and operations. Hiring a person of this calibre takes time. And a person with 20 years experience would not take this position if the trials were not successful and the companies future was unsure. This director will take this position when there is certainty.
The smoking gun:
The animal operations began on Jan 22. The company is trying to position themselves to improve mortality rate at 90 days, The first results would be available on April 22, 90 days later. The day they posted the hiring of the new director was April 22, this would be the positive 90-day results the new director wanted to see before taking the position.
esophageal cancer, more than 17000 deaths per year in the US
If this company is successful with the implants, at $100K to $150K per operation, eventually treating 10000 patients per year in the US and Europe can generate over $1 Billion in sales. The current market cap is $25 million. This biotech could be a monster stock going forward, not to mention possibly becoming a leader in regenerative medicine. Just reaching a ridiculously low evaluation of $250 million is a 10 bagger from here.
And as always, do your own due diligence.
