Tuesday, April 26, 2016 10:08:32 PM
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-10:36 opened the day on a 5,605 unknown at $1.75 and traded as high as $1.78 on another 2,027 shares. Then came 9:31's 19.2K $1.77->$1.78->$1.76, 9:32-:41's very low/no-volume $1.76/7, 9:41-:42's ~5K $1.76->$1.74, 9:43-:52's mostly no and a few very low-volume minutes $1.74/7, 9:53-:54's ~21.9K $1.75, 9:55-10:36's mostly very low/no-volume (interrupted by some one-minute smaller volume spikes) $1.74/6, and ended the period on 10:36's 1,232 $1.74/5.
10:37-11:16 did a drop on 10:37's 50.5K $1.74->$1.71->$1.73 (new intra-day low) followed by 10:38-:40's very low-volume recovery to $1.73, 10:45's ~13.2K $1.73, 10:46-:11:16's very low/no-volume (mostly no) $1.71/3 end the period on 11:16's 534 $1.72/3.
11:17-11:48, after a no-trade minute, stepped lower beginning with 11:18-:19's ~43K $1.71 and 11:20-:21's ~18.3K $1.72->$1.73->$1.70 (new intra-day low). Next came 11:22-11:44's very low/no-volume $.71/2, 11:45's ~18.5K $1.71->$1.70, and 11:46-:48s 13K $1.71->$1.72 to end the period.
11:49-12:23, after two no-trades minutes, did 11:51-:53's ~13.4K $1.69 (new intra-day low), 11:55-:56's ~3.2K $1.69->$1.68 (new intra-day low), and immediately came back up to do 11:57-12:07's very low/no-volume $1.69/$1.70, 12:10's ~4.6K $1.69-$1.68, and ended the period on 12:23's 12.5K $1.68/9.
12:24-12:39, after a no-trades two minutes, began steps down when it did 12:26's ~15.9K $1.68->$1.67 (new intra-day low), 12:34's 1.8K $1.66 (new intra-day low), and 12:35-:39's ~31.4K $1.66/7 ended the period.
12:40-13:02, after two no-trades minutes, started very low/no-volume $1.67/8, got 12:53-:54's ~16.5K there, and ended the period on 13:02's ~8K $1.67/8.
13:03-16:00, after a no-trades two minutes, did 13:05-:06's ~6.3K $1.67->$1.66->$1.65 (new intra-day low), did a recovery to $1.66/7 on 13:08-:09's ~14.5K $1.66/7, did 13:10-:18's no trades, 13:19's 400 $1.67/8, 13:20-:21's 400 $1.67->$1.66, 13:25's 4K $1.65, and began 13:33-:49 very low/no-volume $1.65/7, 13:50-15:46's very low/no-volume $1.66/7 (interrupted by 13:58-:59's ~35.1K $1.67, 14:11's 501 $1.67/8, 15:07's ~4.4K $1.67/8, and 15:32-:41's low-volume (and a couple higher volume minutes)), did higher volume 15:57-16:00 $1.66/7 to end the period on 16:00's 1,825 buy for $1.67.
There were no AH trades.
Including the opening trade (closing didn't qualify), there were 28 larger trades (>=5K & 8 4K+) totaling 240,475, 31.93% of day's volume, with a $1.6953 VWAP. Excluding the opening trade, there were 27 larger trades totaling 234,870, 31.18% of day's volume, with a $1.6940 VWAP.
That 39K+ 11:18 trade really skewed the percentage of day's volume that larger blocks represented. It still would have been high without it, but not so egregiously so.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:36 88787 $1.7400 $1.7800 $155,801.50 $1.7548 11.79% 46.54% Incl 09:30 $1.7500 5,605 09:31 $1.7700 6,800
09:31 $1.7700 5,400 10:00 $1.7457 4,800
10:16 $1.7500 4,800
11:16 86750 $1.7100 $1.7363 $149,259.17 $1.7206 11.52% 34.84% Incl 10:37 $1.7100 13,220 $1.7200 10,000
10:45 $1.7300 11,068
11:48 104875 $1.7000 $1.7300 $179,263.01 $1.7093 13.92% 26.62% Incl 11:18 $1.7100 39,928 11:38 $1.7199 4,900
11:45 $1.7000 4,000 $1.7100 4,700
11:48 $1.7200 10,027
12:23 47380 $1.6800 $1.7000 $79,916.21 $1.6867 6.29% 29.04%
12:39 59931 $1.6600 $1.6800 $100,067.58 $1.6697 7.96% 28.57% Incl 12:26 $1.6800 4,580 $1.6700 8,400
12:27 $1.6700 5,347 12:39 $1.6700 10,000
13:02 27462 $1.6700 $1.6800 $45,953.07 $1.6733 3.65% 29.71% Incl 13:02 $1.6700 7,600
16:00 333048 $1.6500 $1.6800 $554,112.70 $1.6638 44.22% 37.29% Incl 13:09 $1.6700 4,800 13:43 $1.6500 12,400
13:51 $1.6614 5,000 13:58 $1.6700 6,900
13:58 $1.6700 8,600 13:59 $1.6700 7,000
14:46 $1.6660 5,000 15:52 $1.6500 11,200
15:58 $1.6600 4,400 15:59 $1.6601 14,000
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
On my minimal chart I've been saying such as { the volume keeps falling, but is still too high to suggest a bottom is quite near } for some days. Today seems to have proven the justification for that view as on a down day with a larger spread we have increasing volume. Worse than that, the prior three days combined with today is starting a cupping pattern on the volume bars with the rise coming on the right side of the cupping pattern during a down move. The rise wasn't enough to consider it end a down trend. So that suggests more near-term downside is likely.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -0.57% -4.35% -0.56% -5.65% 18.01%
Prior -4.35% -0.29% -6.77% -1.12% -23.96%
As part of the wide spread we penetrated the $1.67-$1.70 potential resistance (orange line) and closed below it. If we close below again tomorrow the conventional TA says the support break is confirmed and we can expect further movement towards the next potential support.
This would be either the rising green line, ~ $1.55 today and rising ~1 cent/day, or the upper red horizontal line, $1.53. I do not expect this line to be strong support - it is too old and has only a few tests, including four failures in the eight tests. Pretty much random behavior there.
The next potential support is the $1.53 price (upper red line). That has many touches and is potentially strong support, although only two of the touches have "high" volume, suggesting less strength than the number of touches would suggest. Recall that it is the upper line on a sideways trading channel that held sway from the time price range began to move, on 12/7/2015, towards the lower bound, contacting it on 12/15/2015. we weren't able to break above the channel's resistance (that means with confirmation) until 4/13/2016, after a couple positive PRs had appeared.
I would expect at least a pause there, considering only conventional TA, with a rebound up some before falling to test the support again. We'll be better able to assess the likely behavior once we get down there.which I'm thinking will happen in the near future.
We have a particular candlestick pattern here, a "Southern Doji" which is supposed to act as a bullish reversal. Unfortunately Bulkowski notes it does so only 52% of the time, essentially random. Personally I'm reading this as nothing but a pause as others who do charts recognize the potential support and wait to see if it will break back above. If not, the momo and swing traders will likely dump, adding to whatever pressure is generated by the ATM (if still in use) and selling by the financiers (but they could be out of shares already? Especially if they shorted in advance of receiving the shares and used the received shares to cover their short positions).
On my one-year chart the 10, 20 and 50-day SMAs continue the predicated rise. If we hold this price range a couple more days they will keep rising. Otherwise the the 10-day will begin to sag in two or three days, depending on how far price range drops - could be faster if a large drop occurs immediately.
The oscillators I watch, except for accumulation/distribution which had a small rise, weakened again and money flow and full stochastic are deep in oversold but the others are just all below neutral, except Williams %R which is likely to enter oversold tomorrow.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.1993 and $2.3915 ($1.1472 and $2.4035 yesterday) continue converging with the mid-point rising as the lower limit is rising faster than the upper limit is falling.
All in, I see no near-term positive indications. Best hope is a brief sideways move until some more PR appears to act as a catalyst.
I don't bet on it because of the rising and cupping volume over this last four days. That strongly suggests near-term weakening or flat at best.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions. Short percentage estimate is just below my desired range (needs re-check) and buy percentage move further below what is needed for sustained appreciation.
The spread widened again, reinforcing the story told by the conventional volume cupping and increasing - likely more near-term weakness.
VWAP movement is reinforcing that story, putting the lie to the doji candlestick's suggestion of a bullish reversal.
All in, no good this way comes.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
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