Galena Biopharma fka GALE

[esedu]

Dr. David Fujii's series on projected Neuvax efficacy

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3809756-neuvax-vaccine-matter-signal-integrity
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3837936-neuvax-vaccine-matter-signal-integrity-part-2
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3959991-neuvax-vaccine-matter-signal-integrity-addendum

From the conclusions of the second and third articles

A 70th breast cancer recurrence event in early January 2016 (the most conservative projected date) thus predicts (1) no possibility of NeuVax efficacy equaling 30% or less (the minimum Special Protocol Assessment threshold required for approval by the FDA), (2) less than a 0.5% chance of NeuVax efficacy equaling 50% or less, (3) a 35% chance of NeuVax efficacy between 51% and 78%, and (4) a 65% chance of NeuVax efficacy greater than 78%. This is indeed a strong and highly encouraging signal!

A 70th breast cancer recurrence event in late March 2016 thus predicts (1) no possibility of NeuVax efficacy equaling 30% or less (the minimum Special Protocol Assessment threshold required for approval by the FDA), (2) no possibility of NeuVax efficacy equaling 50% or less, (3) a 21% chance of NeuVax efficacy between 51% and 78%, and (4) a 79% chance of NeuVax efficacy greater than 78%. This indeed is still a strong and highly encouraging signal!

The 70th event occurred sometime between these two dates, most likely in February (it takes time to adjudicate the event), making the actual efficacy land somewhere between these two projections.