Tuesday, April 19, 2016 8:02:17 PM
As before, I tried to act like I didn't know what happened as I play catch up.
In aggregate, it looks like more upside is in the works.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-09:41 opened the day with a sell of 1,186 for $1.53 followed by 9:31's 3.5K $1.53 putting b/a 2K:1.6K $1.5/5, 9:34's 3.6K $1.55, 9:3's ~6.2K $1.56 putting b/a to 2K:700 $1.54/8, 9:37-:39's ~6.5K $1.57->$1.59, and 9:41's ~6.9K $1.61/2 to end the period.
09:42-10:02, after a no-trade minute, began a fall with 9:43's 150 $1.61, 9:45's 4./5K $1.60->$1.5842, 9:48's 200 $1.5801 putting in the bottom, b/a became 1.8K:2.4K $1.60/3, 9:51-:52's ~2.1K $1.62/3, 9:53's ~2.3K $1.61/3, 9:55's 2K $1.61 putting b/a to 1.8K:200 $1.60/1, 9:58's 1.8K $1.61 began a serious medium-volume drop to 10:02's 300 $1.59->$1.56 to end the period.
10:03-10:11, after a no-trades two minutes, began a medium/low-volume sideways $1.56/7 with 10:04's 500 $1.57. 10:11's 200 $1.57 ended the period. B/a was ~4.9K:~6.9K $1.56/7.
10:12-10:44, after a no-trades four minutes, began with 10:16-:17's ~2.5K $1.57, did 10:19's 6.8K $1.57, 10:20's ~2.1K $1.59 putting b/a 1.6K:1.7K $1.57/$1.60, 10:25-26's 800 $1.60/1, 10:33's 1.2K $1.59/61 putting b/a 1.6K:2.9K $1.58/$1.61, and 10:44's 100 $1.61 ended the period.
10:45-10:54 did a climb up with 10:45-:46's ~1.1K $1.61->$1.62, 10:48-:54's 36.3K $1.63->$1.70.
10:55-11:15, after a no-trades two minutes, began a drop with 10:57-11:01's 10.5K $1.68->$1.66->$1.68->$1.67, leaving b/a 4.5K:1.6K $1.66/7, and began a low/medium-volume rise hitting $1.69 at 11:07. Then came a drop, after some medium and declining-volume $1.68/9 trading, and 11:13-:15's ~11.1K $1.68->$1.65 ended the period.
11:16-11:47, after a no-trade minute, began medium-volume $1.65/7 and at 11:21 put b/a to 600:19.4K $1.66/8 to begin low/medium-volume $1.66/8. 11:31 saw low/no-volume $1.67/8 begin and b/a at 4.1K:19.7K $1.67/8. 11:47's ~9.8K $1.68 ended the period.
11:48-12:10 began a big rise with 11:48's 23.8K $1.68->$1.67->$1.69, saw 11:52's ~77K $1.69->$1.75, rose on variable volume to $1.83 by 12:07, and hit $1.86 at 12:10 to end the period.
12:11-12:29 began a drop with 12:11's ~6.3K $1.86->$1.84 and began variable-volume steps lower, hitting $1.78 at 12:15 and $1.74 at 12:29 to end the period.
12:30-13:05 began a small rise, on low volume, to $1.77/$1.81 by 12:35, and went low/medium-volume $1.78/9 and end the period 13:05's 500 $1.79.
13:06-14:01 initiated another series of steps up with 13:06's $1.79/81, beginning with mostly low/medium-volume and later some higher volume, to hit $1.82 at 13:11, $1.83 at 13:14, $1.85 at 13:17, $1.86 at 13:22 and 13:23 did ~20.8K $1.84/6), and $1.8699 at 13:24. Then came 13:25-:46's low/no-volume, going medium/high-volume the last five minutes, $1.83/5. 14:47-14:01 began a rise, which went parabolic, on low, then medium and then high volume, and peaked on 14:01's ~25.2K $1.92->$1.97->$1.94 to end the period.
14:02-14:14 began a halting series of steps down with 14:02's ~5.2K $1.92 and on variable volume, but mostly medium and low volume, hit $1.87 at 14:06, and $1.83 on 14:14's ~38.6K to end the period.
14:15-15:00, after a no-trades five minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.84/6 until 14:35 began a series of very low/no-volume mini-steps up to hit $1.88 at 14:33. Then, after 14:45-:50's no trades, 14:51's ~16.2K $1.85/8 led to very low/no-volume $1.87/8. 15:00's 1.4K $1.88 ended the period.
15:01-15:21 began with ~1.6K $1.89/90 to start another step-up series on very low/no-volume $1.89/90 through 15:05, hit $1.91 at 15:06, $1.94 at 15:07, $1.95 at 15:08 and did medium, rising to high, volume $1.89/$1.94 to end the period on 15:21's ~2.3K $1.92/4.
15:22-15:39 began with a drop to $1.91 on ~3.9K, sagged lower to $1.87 on 15:24-:25's ~23K, and began low-volume $1.88/90 until 15:36 started a medium/high-volume drop, hitting $1.80 on 15:39's $31.9K to end the period.
15:40-16:00 began a medium.high-volume move up on 15:40's ~10.2K $1.80/2, hit $1.85 on 15:44's ~1.5K $1.83/5, hit $1.87 on 15:51's 22.6K $1.84/7, hit $1.89 on 15:54's ~9.2K $1.87/9, and traded there to close the period and day on the closing buy of 4,024 for $1.89.
There were nine AH trades $1.90/$1.94.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 48 larger trades (>=5a & 10 4K+)K) totaling 307,643, 24.69% of day's volume, with a $1.8262 VWAP.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:Ending Period Period Period Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High Dollar Val. VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
09:41 29635 $1.5300 $1.6200 $46,579.73 $1.5718 2.38% 37.42%
10:02 16707 $1.5600 $1.6300 $26,781.58 $1.6030 1.34% 47.66%
10:11 6700 $1.5600 $1.5700 $10,501.56 $1.5674 0.54% 49.56%
10:44 13700 $1.5650 $1.6100 $21,611.66 $1.5775 1.10% 47.37% Incl 10:19 $1.5700 5,900
10:54 37175 $1.6100 $1.7000 $61,659.59 $1.6586 2.98% 57.01%
11:47 66199 $1.6500 $1.6900 $110,677.29 $1.6719 5.31% 56.00% Incl 11:47 $1.6800 9,300
12:10 235608 $1.6700 $1.8600 $411,599.33 $1.7470 18.91% 56.43% Incl 11:52 $1.7000 4,499 5,250 10,100
11:52 $1.7213 5,000 $1.7232 5,000
11:52 $1.7500 8,099 11:53 $1.7400 5,000
11:55 $1.7400 5,000 11:58 $1.7633 5,000
12:04 $1.7700 5,400 5,000
12:05 $1.7900 6,699
12:29 66464 $1.7400 $1.8599 $119,518.39 $1.7982 5.33% 53.45% Incl 12:15 $1.7800 4,799 $1.7929 5,000
13:05 53955 $1.7600 $1.8070 $96,302.07 $1.7849 4.33% 53.46% Incl 12:31 $1.7620 5,000
14:01 235816 $1.7900 $1.9700 $443,390.93 $1.8802 18.93% 53.94% Incl 13:25 $1.8400 5,000 13:43 $1.8399 5,000
13:46 $1.8500 5,100 13:54 $1.8700 5,031
13:54 $1.8700 5,969 13:57 $1.9100 4,630
13:57 $1.9050 4,630 $1.9099 6,400
13:58 $1.9018 4,710 13:59 $1.9321 4,500
13:59 $1.9302 4,500 14:01 $1.9400 9,900
14:14 100971 $1.8300 $1.9400 $190,141.96 $1.8831 8.10% 51.53% Incl 14:05 $1.9200 4,960 14:09 $1.8799 5,000
14:14 $1.8300 4,725 $1.8400 5,040
14:14 $1.8401 7,300
15:00 59120 $1.8300 $1.8800 $110,057.11 $1.8616 4.74% 50.95% Incl 14:51 $1.8500 11,300 14:52 $1.8699 5,000
15:21 76347 $1.8900 $1.9500 $146,321.38 $1.9165 6.13% 51.11% Incl 15:08 $1.9307 7,000 15:17 $1.9100 4,700
15:19 $1.9200 14,000
15:39 83502 $1.8000 $1.9101 $155,155.47 $1.8581 6.70% 48.23% Incl 15:24 $1.9000 5,700 15:39 $1.8000 5,000
15:39 $1.8000 6,500
16:00 146908 $1.8001 $1.8900 $271,569.63 $1.8486 11.79% 48.60% Incl 15:40 $1.8001 9,900 15:41 $1.8137 7,245
15:43 $1.8100 9,557 15:57 $1.8870 5,300
15:59 $1.8870 5,000 $1.8900 19,000
19:53 7934 $1.9000 $1.9400 $15,351.96 $1.9350 0.64% 48.85%
On my minimal chart yesterday I noted we got the confirming close above resistances of both the rising green line and the sideways channel. I said { The range compression and lower volume are a concern as they suggest consolidation and offer no real hint about the next move up or down. Our history would suggest that we come back and test one of those two lines. Because of our history I would consider this most likely. }__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -4.38% 0.79% 20.70% 24.34% 239.85%
Prior 4.32% -2.19% 18.06% 14.39% 494.82%
Thank goodness history decided not to repeat! Today we got a low just about right atop the sideways channel resistance (upper red line) and blew through the $1.69 potential resistance (the new orange horizontal line, tested and held on 4/11) on strong rising volume. As before, we're "pushing" the upper 13-period Bollinger limit too.
I finished yesterday's minimal chart discussion with { So I think I'll just go neutral here and join the (apparent) crowd with "wait and see". }. Good move because I've become so jaded on $CPST I'm sure I would've leaned toward the bearish side and suggested we were going lower.
Today, just on this chart, traditional TA would suggest more near-term upside is available.
On my one-year chart the 10, 20 and 50-day SMAs continue to rise and if range just stays where its at they will continue to do so for a long time. In fact, a "longer" time if we hold current levels - on the order of 45 trading days for the 50, 20 for the 20 and 10 for the 10! After these periods they'll start swapping out more recent values on the tail and we'll have to see what develops.
The oscillators I watch all flipped again today, going from all weaker yesterday (an effect of a short one-day consolidation on reduced volume) to all improving today. RSI, MFI (untrusted by me), Williams %R, and full stochastic are overbought and all are above neutral, even accumulation/distribution!
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.1237 and $1.7875 ($1.1652 and $1.6379 yesterday) continues to raise the mid-point as the upper limit rises faster than the lower limit falls.
All in, this stuff, thanks especially to the strong rising volume, suggests more near-term upside is available.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, a sign of normalcy, and the buy percentage is just below where I think it needs to be for sustained appreciation. But this may be splitting hairs as most of the time we get a one of few days rise we haven't actually made 50%+, but 48%, 49%. Might need to check on this in the near future.
Unfortunately the short percentage seems far from where I think it needs to be. But with Nyse ARCA short sales, which were as high as 44% during the period I've been doing this daily post, my 15%, above the average and mode, but below the maximum, is about the best I can do. Over the long-haul I'll need to work up a new "normal" short percentage with this 15% factored in.
Until then, I have to assess based on what's in front of me and the short percentage being so low is a negative.
The spread - need I say it - was extremely wide. It was produced by a strong rise until the last 45 minutes of the day, after which it gave back a relatively small portion of the day;'s gain and recovered a small part of that loss in the last five minutes. This kind of spread, even in an up trend is not sustainable and I wouldn't be surprised if we gave some of the gain back during the day tomorrow. That's not to say we'll go lower, in aggregate, but I would expect some profit-taking or hitting of the ATM to come into play during the day.
VWAP movement another great YOWZAH! Having too of these, and today bigger, in three days makes me leery. It's totally out of character for this symbol. But "don't fight the tape" applies here - more near-term upside looks possible using this metric.
All in, only the short percentage, which is now suspect, suggests something negative. Given that I have to think my unconventional stuff is, in aggregate, suggesting more near-term upside.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
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