YRC Worldwide Inc (YRCW)

[GuyBig]

Projected YRCW Stock Performance AFTER the 4/28 Earnings Release

Consensus earnings estimates for the 1st Q is a loss of 38 cents a share. That means a loss of $12.7 million. YRCW has consistently mismanaged to lose money in the first Q and to have negative earnings surprises. For the past three quarters. lawsuits and workmen's comp have been favorable, but if YRCW reverts to its 1st Q pattern for the past 4 years, something or other will make the loss worse. I picture a $20 million loss for the first quarter.

If there's a $20 million loss and YRCW has already tested its trailing 52 week low of $6.28, its reasonable to picture the price falling to its all time low after the 2nd reverse split of $5.75 in March, 2013. Adjusted for the tripling of shares outstanding, that would be $1.73 a share.

SPECULATORS -- no one owning YRCW is an INVESTOR -- buying here when YRCW has a market cap of $295 million have a downside risk of 30 to 80%. The market cap is likely to fall to $200 million BEFORE the earnings report and may fall to $60 million AFTER the report.