Investorhub, like you I prefer and hope for any scenario that maximizes arcam's influence in any sector, aviation, medical or others. But, and this is a big but, given the abject lack of news and specific documentation, we just don't know. Idle speculation, especially the type that sees bogeymen around every corner, draws conclusions based on little facts and simply guesses re relevant detail serves no purpose.
We do not know what is actually going on in the minds of buyers or even what decisions they have actually made. We do not really know what parts will be EBM produced, in what engines, what the time frames for decision making are, or what conclusions buyers will make. It is not surprising that if the only engine blades will be in is the 9x, that avio is staggering their buy as that engine will not be In production for years. All that is needed now are a few test blades.
So what are the current 10 avio machines producing. Test blades, other parts, blades for the test leap and 9x engines, commercial blades for the nx, etc????? We just don't know yet some spend a lot of posts speculating. I remember last year that one posted over and over that the leap engine was already in mass production based on the existence of 30. The same source said the leap had already been certified as had arcam blades. Not true as confirmed by the big announcement at the end of last year that the leap had just been approved. No mention of blade approval.
We just don't know. I wish we had more solid info but we don't. We don't know what will happen, how many blades can be produced with one machine or how many parts will be needed.
What we do know is that GE has said it likes ebm and has put money where its mouth is. We also know that a lot of aviation companies have been experimenting and researching EBM and many have positive statements to make about it. We do know that eBm has positive advantages over traditional manufacturing: Can be designed individually which cannot be traditionally manufactured, less waste, more durability, make one part rather than composites of several, more efficient use of metal, more dense, etc etc etc. When the cost and quality of an EbM part exceeds that of traditionally manufactured parts, and the buyer convinces themselves that the EBM made part can effectively replace the existing part at a better quality and cost, and the regulators concur (I know some have said the regulators have no say over individual ebm parts, huh) then we will see a conversion from the traditional to the ebm and consequent arcam printer sales.
But as we have with this first bulk GE order, it will take time and will be at the whim of the buyer re the total number of machines sold and the timing thereof. Some gave up on the bulk order and rene's statements of same but as I've said for years believe Rene, believe his guidance and good things will eventually happen just not in the time frame we might prefer. And as ive also said for years, Investor it is not a zero sum game as some think. EBM will get its share of aviation parts as Rene as said and other technology will get theirs. There is room for al given the number of engines and the huge number of parts that each engine needs.
