El Nino is ending! After transitioning to neutral conditions, it's likely that sea-surface water temperatures in the equatorial east and central Pacific Ocean could continue to cool to the point that La Niña may emerge in the fall, NOAA said. However, they cautioned that much uncertainty remains, though there is computer model and physical evidence that La Niña conditions could develop.
La Niña is the opposite of El Niño, namely, a cooling of the equatorial east-central Pacific Ocean.
Of course, if La Niña does develop, the strength of it (weak, moderate or strong) will determine what impacts it may have on the weather in North America and elsewhere next winter (2016-2017).
We could get a bitter cold winter
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The end of an El Niño event is often followed by the reversal of the phenomenon, known as La Niña, although that isn’t a given. While El Niño and its impact might be better known, prices for crops such as soy, corn and wheat can move around 50% more during a La Niña event, based on a measure of the volatility of prices, said Erik Norland, senior economist at CME Group from New York.
“The likelihood that the current El Niño peaks soon and turns into a potentially strong La Niña by late 2016 or early 2017 is something that participants in agricultural markets should track closely,” Mr. Norland said.
The impact of La Niña may not be limited to agriculture. The La Niña that lasted from 1998 through to 2000 caused colder-than-normal winters in the U.S. and Canada, sending prices of natural gas higher, according to CME Group.
