Titan Pharmaceuticals Inc (TTNP)

[Doctor Detroit]

Whatever

I'm starting to check this stock way too much, which ain't good. Time to embrace the suck.

Probuphine will either be approved or not. If not, I'm screwed, but whatever, I took the risk. If its approved, then I believe things will be good.

The approval itself should shoot the price up over $10. I don't think anything else will move the price until then, unless we happen to get an Adcom that creates some buzz.

I expect the price to go down sharply following the post-approval peak: too many people will either want to take profits, or get discouraged the peak wasn't high enough and bail.

And then things will really get interesting. I took a look at the "bottom ten" of the 145 issuers held by iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (Titan isn't one of them). So, these are the ten smallest holdings of the fund, all of which have market caps in the $50 to $200 million range.

All of them appear to have institutional ownership between 25 and 50% (September and August numbers). So, I expect in the 2-3 months following approval, 25 to 50% of the float will be bought up by institutions (remember, around 15% of the outstanding is owned by Braeburn, Broadfin and some dude I can't remember his name).

So the availability of shares will be reduced, press on probuphine should pick up and I think TTNP breaks $20 before the end of the Summer..at which point TTNP will probably do a secondary offering for cash (say 2 million shares at $12.50) and we end up 2016 around $15 or so.

Either that or it will be bankrupt.