Saturday, October 10, 2015 5:25:35 PM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 10/09 2015 EOD
Well, I figure the effects of the bad results pre-announcement should be about wearing off, so I'm leaning slightly more positive than the raw traditional TA and my experimental stuff might suggest. Keep that in mind.
There were 4.150 shares in pre-market trades, all at $0.27.
Trading opened with, apparently, no opening "block", as the first trade was 1K shares at $0.27. Price immediately dropped to $0.2516 from $0.27 in the same first minute on 132.23K and began low-volume sideways trading $0.2516/$0.254 with falling highs, and rising lows later, ending the period at $0.2517/8 at 09:49. 9:50-09:56 began with 127.54K dropping price to $0.25 and then beginning medium-volume trading at $0.25/$0.251 with rapidly falling highs. The period ended at $0.25. 09:57-10:00 began with ~519.2K (including blocks of 106.5K and 156.1K) to $0.243 and the next minute dropping price to $0.2424. ~39.4K ended the plunge, and period, taking price from $0.242 to $0.2454. 10:02-10:24 began very low-volume trading at $0.245, dropped to $0.2422 again and began climbing, hitting $0.2475 at 10:07 and dropped back to begin low-volume sideways trading $0.2449/$0.2454 with falling highs, ending the period at $0.2449/$0.245. 10:25-10:43 began with low-volume trading at $0.2449/$0.2452 with a rising range, peaking at $0.2475 and going sideways at that level on very low volume, ending the period at $0.2474/5. 10:44-10:49 was just more very low-volume sideways trading that ended at $0.2479/$0.248. 10:50-10:55 began with 112K in three minutes that took price to $0.2484 and traded sideways on low volume there. 10:56-11:10 began a (now?) typical low-volume step up every few minutes, getting to $0.2511/$0.2546 to end the period. 11:11-11:55 began with low-volume sideways $0.253 trading, and did steps down to $0.2512 by 11:24 and went sideways at $0.2512/$0.2529 with falling highs and then rising lows, ending the period at $0.2519. 11:56-12:18 began with a two-minute 49.4K drop to $0.2525->$0.2464, began relatively high-volume sideways trading at $0.2464/$0.248 with rising lows until 12:13 when range became $0.2466/$0.2473. 12:19-12:36 began with ~20.6K and 100 shares in the next minute taking price to $0.2447 and dropped to $0.244 on 28.1K at 12:24 and began immediately recovering, hitting $0.2477 at 12:29 and beginning $0.245/$0.$0.2476 low-volume sideways trading. 12:37-13:42 began with a 5.5K bump to $0.2501 and did a low-volume step up to $0.2517 followed by a two-minute 15.8K move back down to $0.2465, a couple zero-volume minutes and then went sideways at $0.2465/$0.2498 on very low volume with rising lows, hitting $0.25 on 100 shares at 13:14 and then going sideways at $0.249/$0.2499 on low volume, ending the period at $0.249/$0.2493. 13:43-14:38 began with 8.8K in two minutes taking price to $0.2465 and then doing low-volume trading at $0.2467/$0/2468 and then $0.2468/$0.2481, ending at $0.248/$0.2481. 14:39-15:33 stepped up to $0.2494 on small volume and traded low-volume sideways at $0.2486/$0.2494, narrowed until 15:21 when range moved to $0.2479/$0.2487. 15:34-15:59 made a two-minute ~115.6K drop to $0.245, traded low volume $0.2451/$0.2452 until 15:47 when the EOD volatility kicked in and we traded medium-volume $0.2452/$0.$0.2482, with highs rising to $0.2487 and the period ended at $0.245/$0.2487. 16:00 closed with a very small 724 share trade at $0.245.
Including the opening block, there were eleven larger trades (>=20K), totaling 655,200 shares, 25.52% of day's volume, with a VWAP of $0.2486. Excluding the opening block, there were ten totaling 620,240, 24.16% of day's volume, with a VWAP of $0.2483.
Yesterday I opined { ... which should exhibit slowing rate of decline in the lows and highs initially and then narrowing spreads. Since tomorrow is Friday, we might see both today. } I'm batting .666 - rate of decline for the low increased and for the high decreased and the spread didn't start to narrow yet (see below). For a Friday, the intra-day behavior was a bit more vigorous than I expected - both in terms of movement and volume.
I'm still awaiting a trend to appear on my minimal chart.
On my one-year chart, we're topping around the mid-point of my longer-term descending channel, with the bulk of the day's action below it. We're trading further below the mid-point, $0.2923, of the 13-period Bollinger band whose limits are currently $0.1949 and $0.3897.
All the oscillators I watch deteriorated today.
With the volume increased I don't have a clue if it is indicative of accelerating downward pressure leading to another run at the recently-set all-time low, or if it's like a "capitulation" event.
Our price range is still in the area of a consolidation, using the 50% mark of the $0.2011->$0.28 range of the recent up-leg, and ISTM that is still just as likely as anything else at this point, using only the more traditional TA stuff.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions today - not good. However, the short percentage is mid-point of my desired range (needs re-check), which is a good sign (check what the readings were over the prior seven days!).
Note in the intra-day breakdown above what the buy percentages did throughout the day - a general strengthening until the mid-3x% range was hit and there was not one substantial re-trace lower in the buy percentages as the day progressed.
However, there is a caution associated with this observation. Take note of the VWAP decline and what volumes were doing along the way - a lot of the buys could have been MMs doing covering buys of shorted shares. Check the prices on the larger trades early in the day along with the VWAPs of the early trading in general. What this suggests is the the MMs would want to hold price higher as the shares from the sell orders they handled flowed into their control IF they did do covering buys and are about to become short-term long.
If we're returning to a near-normal state, as the short percentage suggests, this seems a likely scenario.
N.B. It just occurred to me that "covering buys" might imply something to the reader which I do not intend - "buys" as in buy percentage. I don't think MMs do a lot of hitting the offers, which would be flagged as a buy, because that costs them fees from the exchanges as they would be then "liquidity takers" rather than "liquidity providers". I suspect that since they can easily move price around, especially in low volume periods, with very small trades, they will more likely move the price and then enter a bid and wait for it to get hit as their predominant method of doing covering buys. This way they get both a good covering price and they get fees from the exchanges for being a "liquidity provider". Just wanted to dispel any misunderstanding I might have caused there.
The spread is still a bit wide for my taste, but as with yesterday I'm not yet reading us in a strong down leg and so I don't believe this a strong negative indicator. However, that's what I thought yesterday and VWAP dropped ~6.5%! So maybe my conclusions are a contrarian indicator for now.
Regardless, the short percentage reading and the way buy percentage performed intra-day has me thinking sideways seems likely for now, especially when considered in light of having re-traced to the mid-point of the recent leg up.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
Well, I figure the effects of the bad results pre-announcement should be about wearing off, so I'm leaning slightly more positive than the raw traditional TA and my experimental stuff might suggest. Keep that in mind.
There were 4.150 shares in pre-market trades, all at $0.27.
Trading opened with, apparently, no opening "block", as the first trade was 1K shares at $0.27. Price immediately dropped to $0.2516 from $0.27 in the same first minute on 132.23K and began low-volume sideways trading $0.2516/$0.254 with falling highs, and rising lows later, ending the period at $0.2517/8 at 09:49. 9:50-09:56 began with 127.54K dropping price to $0.25 and then beginning medium-volume trading at $0.25/$0.251 with rapidly falling highs. The period ended at $0.25. 09:57-10:00 began with ~519.2K (including blocks of 106.5K and 156.1K) to $0.243 and the next minute dropping price to $0.2424. ~39.4K ended the plunge, and period, taking price from $0.242 to $0.2454. 10:02-10:24 began very low-volume trading at $0.245, dropped to $0.2422 again and began climbing, hitting $0.2475 at 10:07 and dropped back to begin low-volume sideways trading $0.2449/$0.2454 with falling highs, ending the period at $0.2449/$0.245. 10:25-10:43 began with low-volume trading at $0.2449/$0.2452 with a rising range, peaking at $0.2475 and going sideways at that level on very low volume, ending the period at $0.2474/5. 10:44-10:49 was just more very low-volume sideways trading that ended at $0.2479/$0.248. 10:50-10:55 began with 112K in three minutes that took price to $0.2484 and traded sideways on low volume there. 10:56-11:10 began a (now?) typical low-volume step up every few minutes, getting to $0.2511/$0.2546 to end the period. 11:11-11:55 began with low-volume sideways $0.253 trading, and did steps down to $0.2512 by 11:24 and went sideways at $0.2512/$0.2529 with falling highs and then rising lows, ending the period at $0.2519. 11:56-12:18 began with a two-minute 49.4K drop to $0.2525->$0.2464, began relatively high-volume sideways trading at $0.2464/$0.248 with rising lows until 12:13 when range became $0.2466/$0.2473. 12:19-12:36 began with ~20.6K and 100 shares in the next minute taking price to $0.2447 and dropped to $0.244 on 28.1K at 12:24 and began immediately recovering, hitting $0.2477 at 12:29 and beginning $0.245/$0.$0.2476 low-volume sideways trading. 12:37-13:42 began with a 5.5K bump to $0.2501 and did a low-volume step up to $0.2517 followed by a two-minute 15.8K move back down to $0.2465, a couple zero-volume minutes and then went sideways at $0.2465/$0.2498 on very low volume with rising lows, hitting $0.25 on 100 shares at 13:14 and then going sideways at $0.249/$0.2499 on low volume, ending the period at $0.249/$0.2493. 13:43-14:38 began with 8.8K in two minutes taking price to $0.2465 and then doing low-volume trading at $0.2467/$0/2468 and then $0.2468/$0.2481, ending at $0.248/$0.2481. 14:39-15:33 stepped up to $0.2494 on small volume and traded low-volume sideways at $0.2486/$0.2494, narrowed until 15:21 when range moved to $0.2479/$0.2487. 15:34-15:59 made a two-minute ~115.6K drop to $0.245, traded low volume $0.2451/$0.2452 until 15:47 when the EOD volatility kicked in and we traded medium-volume $0.2452/$0.$0.2482, with highs rising to $0.2487 and the period ended at $0.245/$0.2487. 16:00 closed with a very small 724 share trade at $0.245.
Including the opening block, there were eleven larger trades (>=20K), totaling 655,200 shares, 25.52% of day's volume, with a VWAP of $0.2486. Excluding the opening block, there were ten totaling 620,240, 24.16% of day's volume, with a VWAP of $0.2483.
On the traditional TA front, movements of the open, low, high, close and volume were 0.00%, -3.59%, -0.15%, -2.89%, and 26.78% respectively, vs. yesterday's 3.97%, -1.38%, -3.43%, -3.43%, and -41.94% respectively.Ending Period Period Period Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High Dollar Val. VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
09:49 266825 $0.2510 $0.2700 $67,679.96 $0.2536 10.39% 20.79%
09:56 204942 $0.2500 $0.2517 $51,322.45 $0.2504 7.98% 16.59% Incl 09:30 $0.2540 34,960 09:53 $0.2500 44,200
10:00 560265 $0.2420 $0.2503 $139,374.91 $0.2488 21.82% 14.79% Incl 09:57 $0.2500 106,500 156,140 $0.2450 37,100
10:24 232214 $0.2422 $0.2475 $56,881.98 $0.2450 9.04% 26.96% Incl 10:04 $0.2448 40,000 10:13 $0.2454 59,500
10:43 130684 $0.2449 $0.2475 $32,101.68 $0.2456 5.09% 29.01%
10:49 20400 $0.2474 $0.2480 $5,058.51 $0.2480 0.79% 30.07%
10:55 114967 $0.2479 $0.2484 $28,555.53 $0.2484 4.48% 31.77% Incl $0.2484 10:50 78,900 10:51 23,400
11:10 65050 $0.2483 $0.2546 $16,338.58 $0.2512 2.53% 33.25%
11:55 72544 $0.2511 $0.2541 $18,291.12 $0.2521 2.83% 32.92%
12:18 123867 $0.2464 $0.2525 $30,777.41 $0.2485 4.82% 33.06% Incl 11:59 $0.2468 20,000
12:36 170759 $0.2440 $0.2477 $42,031.80 $0.2461 6.65% 34.21% Incl 12:28 $0.2475 54,500
13:42 122581 $0.2460 $0.2517 $30,518.74 $0.2490 4.77% 33.83%
14:38 87499 $0.2465 $0.2490 $21,648.31 $0.2474 3.41% 34.49%
15:33 78052 $0.2479 $0.2494 $19,416.66 $0.2488 3.04% 34.34%
15:59 313631 $0.2450 $0.2487 $77,299.74 $0.2465 12.21% 34.91%
16:00 1448 $0.2487 $0.2487 $360.12 $0.2487 0.06% 34.95%
Yesterday I opined { ... which should exhibit slowing rate of decline in the lows and highs initially and then narrowing spreads. Since tomorrow is Friday, we might see both today. } I'm batting .666 - rate of decline for the low increased and for the high decreased and the spread didn't start to narrow yet (see below). For a Friday, the intra-day behavior was a bit more vigorous than I expected - both in terms of movement and volume.
I'm still awaiting a trend to appear on my minimal chart.
On my one-year chart, we're topping around the mid-point of my longer-term descending channel, with the bulk of the day's action below it. We're trading further below the mid-point, $0.2923, of the 13-period Bollinger band whose limits are currently $0.1949 and $0.3897.
All the oscillators I watch deteriorated today.
With the volume increased I don't have a clue if it is indicative of accelerating downward pressure leading to another run at the recently-set all-time low, or if it's like a "capitulation" event.
Our price range is still in the area of a consolidation, using the 50% mark of the $0.2011->$0.28 range of the recent up-leg, and ISTM that is still just as likely as anything else at this point, using only the more traditional TA stuff.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions today - not good. However, the short percentage is mid-point of my desired range (needs re-check), which is a good sign (check what the readings were over the prior seven days!).
Note in the intra-day breakdown above what the buy percentages did throughout the day - a general strengthening until the mid-3x% range was hit and there was not one substantial re-trace lower in the buy percentages as the day progressed.
However, there is a caution associated with this observation. Take note of the VWAP decline and what volumes were doing along the way - a lot of the buys could have been MMs doing covering buys of shorted shares. Check the prices on the larger trades early in the day along with the VWAPs of the early trading in general. What this suggests is the the MMs would want to hold price higher as the shares from the sell orders they handled flowed into their control IF they did do covering buys and are about to become short-term long.
If we're returning to a near-normal state, as the short percentage suggests, this seems a likely scenario.
N.B. It just occurred to me that "covering buys" might imply something to the reader which I do not intend - "buys" as in buy percentage. I don't think MMs do a lot of hitting the offers, which would be flagged as a buy, because that costs them fees from the exchanges as they would be then "liquidity takers" rather than "liquidity providers". I suspect that since they can easily move price around, especially in low volume periods, with very small trades, they will more likely move the price and then enter a bid and wait for it to get hit as their predominant method of doing covering buys. This way they get both a good covering price and they get fees from the exchanges for being a "liquidity provider". Just wanted to dispel any misunderstanding I might have caused there.
The spread is still a bit wide for my taste, but as with yesterday I'm not yet reading us in a strong down leg and so I don't believe this a strong negative indicator. However, that's what I thought yesterday and VWAP dropped ~6.5%! So maybe my conclusions are a contrarian indicator for now.
Regardless, the short percentage reading and the way buy percentage performed intra-day has me thinking sideways seems likely for now, especially when considered in light of having re-traced to the mid-point of the recent leg up.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
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