Friday, October 09, 2015 9:21:49 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 10/08 2015 EOD
If I got out of the weeds and took the 5,000 foot view, today would be described as flat with small perturbations all day until the last forty-five minutes when price tanked on volume and established the day's low. This new low was -3.68% off the prior intra-day low of $0.2606 set at 10:13, normally part of the early-day volatility. In aggregate this fits with yesterday's post below my non-traditional stuff, { All considered, I think we'll see the first signs of flattening begin to appear today. This should be accompanied by reducing volume again. } Just prior to that, while discussing the spread, I noted { ... So even though it's a bit high still, I don't think it suggests a lot of weakening. } On this one I'm not sure if today was "a lot of weakening" or not. See details below and make your judgement.
There was one pre-market trade of 3.2K at $0.28, the unofficial high for the day. The "official" high was $0.2704.
Trading opened with a normal 48,420 share block at $0.27 and trading went absolutely flat $0.266/$0.2699 through 9:39 and then lows began rising until 9:47 when a one-minute ~46K spike from $0.2699 to $0.266 again ended the period. 09:49-10:09 (no trades last minute) began a flattish $0.2694/$0.27 period until 9:59 when the lows dropped to $0.2673/4 for three minutes and then went again flattish at $0.2674/$0.27 ending the period at $0.269. 10:10-10:13 was a four-minute 101.7K drop to $0.2606, setting the official intra-day low. 10:14-10:32 was a three-minute 19K recovery trading back up to $0.269, after which a slow low-volume deterioration to $0.2648 instituted a flat $0.2646/$0.265 range to end the period. 10:33-10:48 began with 59.7K taking price to $0.2617 and began low-volume trading sideways at $0.2618/$0.2642 with slowly rising lows. 10:49-11:04 continued the low volume trading but with a very slowly rising range ending the period at $0.2649. 11:05-11:20 began with a four-minute 93.7K volume that dropped to $0.2628 and began low-volume flat trading at $0.2628/9 while b/a was $0.2629/$0.2660 and began trading that spread at 11:15, with rising lows, ending the period at $0.2651/9. 11:21-12:13 began with ~16.6K up to $0.268 and low-volume $0.266/$0.2679 sideways trading, with rising lows, followed, which lead to the range moving to $0.2676/85 at 11:52 and the period ended at $0.2676/$0.268. 12:14-13:45 (no trades last minute) began with a low-volume five minutes dropping price to $0.266 followed by very low-volume trading at $0.266/$0.2675 then 12:35-12:37 traded 51K in three minutes taking price to $0.265, traded sideways until 12:41 when a rise began, on low volume that took the range back up to $0.2674/$0.268 at 12:47 when low-volume sideways at $0.2676/7 occurred, followed by a halting low-volume rise beginning at 13:36 and ending the period at $0.2679. 13:46-15:06 began a medium-volume rise that went to $0.27 by 13:55 and began low-volume $0.2692/$0.27 sideways trading, with a 100/10K share imbalance to the sell side at 14:10. There was a four-minute volume of 55.5K at 14:45/:50 $0.2699/$0.27 that resulted in nothing. B/a quantity was 5.3K/35.3k $0.2699/$0.27 right after that, at 52.7K traded at that range at 15:01, again with no effect on trading. 15:07-15:28 looked like it might start the EOD volatility early as the first minute traded 76.696 at $0.2696/$0.27 followed by medium-volume sideways trading until 15:16 when another one-minute 52.2K $0$0.27->$0.268 move began a low-volume sideways $0.268/$0.2698 range began with b/a again having a sell imbalance and ending at $0.268/9. 15:29-15:48 began with a 14.2K drop to $0.2662 and went sideways at $0.2666 for a couple minutes and then did 54.9K $0.268->$0.262 over five minutes beginning at 15:34 and then came back up to $0.2663/$0.268 by 15:40, dropped back to $0.262/$0.265 at 15:44, etc., etc., etc. through the period end, ending at $0.2649. 15:49-16:00 began the real EOD volatility, dropping to $0.2611 on just ~25.5K and plunging in the next four minutes to $0.251. Price came back up and went sideways $0.255/7 into the close when a very small closing trade of 123 shares at $0.256 ended the period.
Including the opening block, there were twelve larger trades (>=20K) totaling 401,619 shares, 19.83% of day's volume, with a VWAP of $0.2651. Excluding the opening block, there were eleven larger trades tota;ing 353,140 shares, 17.44% of day's volume, with a VWAP of $0.2645.
In a more traditional vein, I'm still awaiting a trend to appear on my minimal chart. As is my wont, I do have a first potential descending support but with only the origin and one touch it is nowhere near mature. It's strength right now is only that it's slope is identical to my prior descending channel support, the orange lines, which did well until the pre-announcement of crappy results to be reported.
On my one-year chart, we're still trading mid-point of my longer-term descending channel and slightly below the 13-period Bollinger band, currently $0.2016/$0.3988 and just below all my SMAs. All the oscillators but MFI (untrusted by me) improved and all are out of oversold, eliminating that as an impetus for some upward movement. All oscillators I watch are still below neutral.
Considering the price action and again-reduced volume, I believe this is typical of the start of short-term consolidation, which should exhibit slowing rate of decline in the lows and highs initially and then narrowing spreads. Since tomorrow is Friday, we might see both today.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, the preferred correlation, but short percentage is well below my preferred range (needs re-check) for the sixth consecutive day. This is an abnormal situation and we should see that reverse soon, but likely not on a Friday? I think a lot of it is due to the number of larger block trades, which tend to be inter/intra-broker trades that normally don't generate short sales.
The spread increased, and is borderline ATM. Since we are not in a well-defined down-trend, I think, like yesterday, that we'll see some weakness, but not excessive.
In aggregate, consolidation is what I take away from this.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
If I got out of the weeds and took the 5,000 foot view, today would be described as flat with small perturbations all day until the last forty-five minutes when price tanked on volume and established the day's low. This new low was -3.68% off the prior intra-day low of $0.2606 set at 10:13, normally part of the early-day volatility. In aggregate this fits with yesterday's post below my non-traditional stuff, { All considered, I think we'll see the first signs of flattening begin to appear today. This should be accompanied by reducing volume again. } Just prior to that, while discussing the spread, I noted { ... So even though it's a bit high still, I don't think it suggests a lot of weakening. } On this one I'm not sure if today was "a lot of weakening" or not. See details below and make your judgement.
There was one pre-market trade of 3.2K at $0.28, the unofficial high for the day. The "official" high was $0.2704.
Trading opened with a normal 48,420 share block at $0.27 and trading went absolutely flat $0.266/$0.2699 through 9:39 and then lows began rising until 9:47 when a one-minute ~46K spike from $0.2699 to $0.266 again ended the period. 09:49-10:09 (no trades last minute) began a flattish $0.2694/$0.27 period until 9:59 when the lows dropped to $0.2673/4 for three minutes and then went again flattish at $0.2674/$0.27 ending the period at $0.269. 10:10-10:13 was a four-minute 101.7K drop to $0.2606, setting the official intra-day low. 10:14-10:32 was a three-minute 19K recovery trading back up to $0.269, after which a slow low-volume deterioration to $0.2648 instituted a flat $0.2646/$0.265 range to end the period. 10:33-10:48 began with 59.7K taking price to $0.2617 and began low-volume trading sideways at $0.2618/$0.2642 with slowly rising lows. 10:49-11:04 continued the low volume trading but with a very slowly rising range ending the period at $0.2649. 11:05-11:20 began with a four-minute 93.7K volume that dropped to $0.2628 and began low-volume flat trading at $0.2628/9 while b/a was $0.2629/$0.2660 and began trading that spread at 11:15, with rising lows, ending the period at $0.2651/9. 11:21-12:13 began with ~16.6K up to $0.268 and low-volume $0.266/$0.2679 sideways trading, with rising lows, followed, which lead to the range moving to $0.2676/85 at 11:52 and the period ended at $0.2676/$0.268. 12:14-13:45 (no trades last minute) began with a low-volume five minutes dropping price to $0.266 followed by very low-volume trading at $0.266/$0.2675 then 12:35-12:37 traded 51K in three minutes taking price to $0.265, traded sideways until 12:41 when a rise began, on low volume that took the range back up to $0.2674/$0.268 at 12:47 when low-volume sideways at $0.2676/7 occurred, followed by a halting low-volume rise beginning at 13:36 and ending the period at $0.2679. 13:46-15:06 began a medium-volume rise that went to $0.27 by 13:55 and began low-volume $0.2692/$0.27 sideways trading, with a 100/10K share imbalance to the sell side at 14:10. There was a four-minute volume of 55.5K at 14:45/:50 $0.2699/$0.27 that resulted in nothing. B/a quantity was 5.3K/35.3k $0.2699/$0.27 right after that, at 52.7K traded at that range at 15:01, again with no effect on trading. 15:07-15:28 looked like it might start the EOD volatility early as the first minute traded 76.696 at $0.2696/$0.27 followed by medium-volume sideways trading until 15:16 when another one-minute 52.2K $0$0.27->$0.268 move began a low-volume sideways $0.268/$0.2698 range began with b/a again having a sell imbalance and ending at $0.268/9. 15:29-15:48 began with a 14.2K drop to $0.2662 and went sideways at $0.2666 for a couple minutes and then did 54.9K $0.268->$0.262 over five minutes beginning at 15:34 and then came back up to $0.2663/$0.268 by 15:40, dropped back to $0.262/$0.265 at 15:44, etc., etc., etc. through the period end, ending at $0.2649. 15:49-16:00 began the real EOD volatility, dropping to $0.2611 on just ~25.5K and plunging in the next four minutes to $0.251. Price came back up and went sideways $0.255/7 into the close when a very small closing trade of 123 shares at $0.256 ended the period.
Including the opening block, there were twelve larger trades (>=20K) totaling 401,619 shares, 19.83% of day's volume, with a VWAP of $0.2651. Excluding the opening block, there were eleven larger trades tota;ing 353,140 shares, 17.44% of day's volume, with a VWAP of $0.2645.
On the traditional TA front, movements of the open, low, high, close and volume were 3.97%, -1.38%, -3.43%, -3.43%, and -41.94% respectively, vs. yesterday's 10.51%, 11.92%, 9.80%, 4.17%, and -26.35% respectively. If we used the pre-market high of $0.28, the high movement would be 0.00% instead of -3.43%. In aggregate I think it fits with the start of "flattening" I expected today. This is supported by the volume drop. If not for that we would be seeing suggestions of much lower.Ending Period Period Period Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High Dollar Val. VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
09:48 206290 $0.2660 $0.2800 $55,409.35 $0.2686 10.19% 66.10% Incl 09:30 $0.2700 48,479 09:36 $0.2699 20,000
10:08 64043 $0.2673 $0.2700 $17,265.50 $0.2696 3.16% 54.47%
10:13 101601 $0.2606 $0.2684 $26,994.03 $0.2657 5.02% 51.54%
10:32 39751 $0.2609 $0.2690 $10,550.91 $0.2654 1.96% 47.36%
10:48 108350 $0.2617 $0.2646 $28,413.36 $0.2622 5.35% 41.91% Incl 10:35 $0.2617 45,400
11:04 23300 $0.2643 $0.2652 $6,172.90 $0.2649 1.15% 41.35%
11:20 112376 $0.2628 $0.2670 $29,752.83 $0.2648 5.55% 40.08% Incl 11:08 $0.2640 32,000
12:13 196259 $0.2651 $0.2690 $52,510.63 $0.2676 9.69% 37.22%
13:44 180959 $0.2650 $0.2684 $48,291.71 $0.2669 8.93% 34.97% Incl 12:37 $0.2650 23,500
15:06 313076 $0.2679 $0.2704 $84,444.10 $0.2697 15.46% 40.82% Incl 15:01 $0.2700 50,000
15:28 171371 $0.2679 $0.2700 $46,191.27 $0.2695 8.46% 40.34% Incl 15:07 $0.2700 50,000 15:16 $0.2697 20,000
15:48 157845 $0.2620 $0.2680 $41,714.91 $0.2643 7.79% 37.92% Incl 15:44 $0.2620 31,586
16:00 347441 $0.2510 $0.2640 $89,684.50 $0.2581 17.15% 37.71% Incl 15:51 $0.2600 20,000 $0.2600 21,654
15:56 $0.2550 39,000
In a more traditional vein, I'm still awaiting a trend to appear on my minimal chart. As is my wont, I do have a first potential descending support but with only the origin and one touch it is nowhere near mature. It's strength right now is only that it's slope is identical to my prior descending channel support, the orange lines, which did well until the pre-announcement of crappy results to be reported.
On my one-year chart, we're still trading mid-point of my longer-term descending channel and slightly below the 13-period Bollinger band, currently $0.2016/$0.3988 and just below all my SMAs. All the oscillators but MFI (untrusted by me) improved and all are out of oversold, eliminating that as an impetus for some upward movement. All oscillators I watch are still below neutral.
Considering the price action and again-reduced volume, I believe this is typical of the start of short-term consolidation, which should exhibit slowing rate of decline in the lows and highs initially and then narrowing spreads. Since tomorrow is Friday, we might see both today.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, the preferred correlation, but short percentage is well below my preferred range (needs re-check) for the sixth consecutive day. This is an abnormal situation and we should see that reverse soon, but likely not on a Friday? I think a lot of it is due to the number of larger block trades, which tend to be inter/intra-broker trades that normally don't generate short sales.
The spread increased, and is borderline ATM. Since we are not in a well-defined down-trend, I think, like yesterday, that we'll see some weakness, but not excessive.
In aggregate, consolidation is what I take away from this.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
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