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Re: bigcat2 post# 90761

Tuesday, 10/06/2015 6:39:27 PM

Tuesday, October 06, 2015 6:39:27 PM

Post# of 97237
$SPHS Phase 3 data is coming in Q4. According to company's last PR in Dec 2014, the trial is finishing (has finished apparently) in Sep 2015.

http://investor.sophiris.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=887602

"The IDMC conveyed this recommendation to Sophiris in a manner that would not unblind the study nor reveal the actual measured treatment effect. Sophiris and others directly involved in the study will remain blinded to treatment group assignment as the 52 week monitoring period continues until after the last patient has completed the study, which is anticipated to be in September 2015."

As far as your question for how important a positive P3 result should be, I would say that if you step back a bit, and look at the potential market for prostate hypertrophy, and ask "What should a company with a potentially positive phase 3 result be valued at if the trial is a success in a market as huge as BPH?" then I would think you would agree that the current market cap of ~15M$ is severely, severely underpriced. I would say that a 100M$ market cap (about 6-7$ per share) would be reasonable, IMO.

As for downside, I think 50c would be possible, IF the trial fails, and that would be considering that the company also has a phase 2 trial in prostate cancer that would be finishing up in early 2016.

GLTA. DYODD.
-g

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