Shell Plc (SHEL)

[Timothy Smith]

Shell's (RDS.A, RDS.B) $7B flop north of Alaska means billions of barrels of crude oil likely will remain locked away in Arctic waters from the U.S. to Russia, at least as long as prices remain anywhere near $50/bbl.

The result "will scare everybody away from trying [to drill in the Arctic] for a long, long time," says Per Magnus Nysveen, head of analysis at the Rystad Energy consultancy. “If Shell can’t do it... there is really nobody that can do it.”

With OPEC members still controlling 72% of proved oil reserves, the largely unexplored Arctic could be the last great prize; Alaskan waters alone are believed to hold ~25B barrels of oil, but drilling in remote waters is expensive.

Also a factor, a Shell source told Reuters, was the difficulty in navigating the U.S. regulatory process; the Obama administration dealt a blow to Shell in June when it ruled that laws protecting walrus and polar bears prevented the drilling of two rigs simultaneously at close range.