NanoViricides Inc. (NNVC)

[Puffer]

you're kidding right? You just stated what I stated in my last post. I gave you a valuation on what a successful flu drug would bring based on current drugs in the market. That's a valuation (as you even state) based on FDA approval. I clearly stipulated "if it works in humans". That value as stated is obviously just as valid today as it was when I wrote the post, as anybody in the industry would tell you. Look around the biotech/drug discovery industry, 5x sales is conservative. The question is not what the value of such a drug would be but whether NNVC can successfully produce it (and within a reasonable timeframe). Pegging a valuation on a successful flu drug is a far cry from a prediction on stock price. Thanks for proving my point.

Puffer's $350 a share prediction.

Oh hell, I was bored, so I looked, and this is what I found.

First, some context. I was explaining why you might buy a stock that you think has much worse than 50% odds of succeeding. At the time NNVC was going for about 0.50 a share, pre-split (not very different from what it is now). I pointed out that if you think NNVC will be worth at least $5 a share after FDA approval of Flucide then it makes sense to buy at 0.50 so long as you think the odds of success are significantly better than 10%. That $5 number was merely a "for instance", not a prediction. Obviously if you think the stock price will be much higher than $5 then you'd be willing to buy at 0.50 with much worse than 10% odds of success. But Puffer misinterpreted my $5 number as a prediction, and here was his response:

investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=84548319

Quote:
$5 if works in humans? That would be a market cap of only $750M... you would be off by a factor of about 20. The market for an effective flu drug is estimated at 3 to 7B annually. (Tamiflu did about $3B in '09). Take the low number and slap a modest 5X sales on it and you get $15B in market cap for the one drug. That allows nothing for the instant upward revaluation of their entire portfolio once the first drug is approved, not to mention sales of those drugs.


Obviously Puffer believed $5 to be too low by at least a factor of 20, i.e., he considered a reasonable price for NNVC stock after FDA approval of Flucide to be $100 a share, $350 post reverse split.

BTW, I still consider the odds of NNVC succeeding to be well south of 50%. And I see no reason to believe that NNVC will necessarily be worth 5x sales, when many profitable businesses are worth a lot less than that.