Iraqi Dinar Discussion Board

[Sunnybank]

Another nice long Goat read from Dinar Detectives:

4-13-15 Mnt Goat: Hello Everyone. If you haven’t done so already I suggest you read my last news letter dated 4/10. It will help you understand this news today since it is a continuing saga in the revaluation story of the Iraq dinar.

The events taking place may be complicated to understand since they are multi-layered and all interconnected. I will try to break them down into simple terms so we can all understand.

Remember that all the news in the region is all about getting to a place of peace and security and this is the main issue now facing Iraq. With (relative) peace and (relative) security will come prosperity. When they prosper we get paid…..lol….

Today’s News
Today is Monday April 13th and yes there is still no Iraq currency RV.

Surprise! Surprise! Surprise! Are you surprised once again another weekend has passed and still no RV?

But wait……now we are now being told by some intel gurus there is a plan to exchange us all out early, even prior to the currency exchanges having live rates.

All I can say is it great entertainment….lol…Meinen Hubby and I roll on the floor laughing over this stuff…..lol….

Honestly if I thought it was going to RV any time soon (within the next days or weeks) I would honestly say so but this is just not going to be the case since there is absolutely no sound evidence of this being the case.

So relax and enjoy the Springtime! We still may have a some time to go prior to completing the revaluation process.

I have been attempting to explain to all of you why this is the case and what the delay is. Have you been listening? I am not just telling you that there is going to be no RV in the near future but rather I am explaining to you why this is the case and what evidence there is to support the NO RV viewpoint more so than having an RV.

Again what is the near future? I do not think June is that far away. Also consider that there could be more quickly won battles with ISIS and thus the rollout plan could be expedited.

But I can only tell you what I now know to be true and I will not fabricate lies to keep you on pins and needles each and every weekend waiting for the RV on Monday.

Oh but many of you are in the clouds and desire the RV so badly that you will believe more anyone giving you this rush of “hopium” each week. You are like junkies! They have clouded your better judgment and you minds are not clear to see the truth of the matter.

So to you I say - GOOD LUCK with that!

Okay - so back to reality. What do we know as verifiable facts and not rumors.

[Solution to the Liquidity Problem]

As I stated in my last news letter we were told that Iraq had a solution to their liquidity problem and that the solution was going to take effect prior to the end of this month (April).

Remember what I told you about liquidity. Lack of liquidity does not mean you are broke or bankrupt. It simply means you do not have readily available cash to pay debtors.

Kind of like you owning 3 homes but don’t have enough cash in your checking account to pay the electric bills. So what do you do? Well you go out and find some more cash……right?

You do this by either bringing in more revenues or you can sell some of your existing assets.

In the case of Iraq the liquidity problem was at the local banks not the CBI so let me make this point very clear. Iraq is very wealthy and rolling is dough…lol….:)

So here is the heart of the liquidity issue - Since they had been exchanging the 3 zero notes for USD, as part of the project to delete the zeroes, the banks no longer has readily available cash (dinars) to meet their new banking laws liquidity standards.

They had been exchanging dinars (lower denoms) for USD. The dinars however are the lower denoms and not worth much unless there is a significant increase in the value of the dinar.

So what does the average citizens do with them? I have to tell you that in the rollout plan of the lower denoms they were supposed to pull the trigger on the revaluation as soon as a certain percentage of provinces had the lower dinars and then followup quickly with the rest after the announcement. The lower denoms were supposed to have increased value over the USD by now.

So now much of the currency was tied up in the form of USD in the bank vaults. A new banking law stipulated they were only to conduct banking transactions in dinars and could no longer use USD (or other foreign currencies) for this purpose.

So they had plenty of cash (in USD) but in actuality could not lend it out or use it for the general public or even pay contractors. How can the banks even make any money to stay in business? How can they get around this liquidity issue?

To get around this liquidity issue, the banks must now turn in their 3 zero notes to the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) and in return get issued more of the new lower denominations (paper and coins) going forward.

This is the new money to be used going forward for loans and everyday use. Remember the CBI just does not hand out FREE money!

But many of the banks could not do this since the CBI refused to exchange and thus transfer these new currencies to the banks while they were still under ISIS occupation. Do you see the problem?

This tells us once again this RV IS A SECURITY issue since they even halted the RV process due to it. Why can't some see this?

This ISIS is like a clogged drain. It caused the liquidity problem! ISIS is stopping the flow of the undergoing revaluation process. Was it coincidental is that all of sudden Iraq announces a liquidity problem after ISIS began taking control of the major cities of Anbar, Turik and Mosul? Go figure!

So since the project to delete the zeros (which includes the switchover to the lower denoms was put on hold) the banks reverted back to using the USD in disregard to the new banking law.

There was no alternative. The justification was that the CBI caused this violation of the law. So we see pressure then on the CBI to fix this issue. How do they fix it? I just told you above how they can fix it.

The CBI needs to continue the project to delete the zeros and issue the banks the needed lower denominations and soak up the USD. The CBI does not want a large influx of USD in circulation again in Iraq. They are at a critical junction. An opportune time to RV. Like a ripe peach, it must be picked or it spoils.

So they do this by getting rid of ISIS and thus allowing the CBI to continue their exchanges with the banks of USD for the new lower denominations (the new currency to replace the provisional currency).

Oh … but wait the CBI desperately needs this USD now tied up at the local banks too to allocate to the general budget to pay the bills (ongoing govt services and programs) and fund the needed projects. Time is of the essence.

Also let us not forget the process of how these funds get paid out to the contractors. The funds are transferred to the local banks to pay since the contractors do not go to the CBI to cash their checks or get electronic transfer of funds. It does not work that way. They must go to the local banks.

It is the local banks that interact with the consumer. These funds must be in dinars. Do you see the cycle re-accurring here with this cash flow issue?

Do you see why they would say they have a liquidity problem? Do you also now see the solution(s)?

Then to our surprise the other day out pops a major 2014 budget revision as it gets raced through parliament, gets ratified and posted in the Gazette in record time. It tells us the gauge for funding the 2014 budget has been raised to $56 a barrel. What was this all about?

As a side note - It also now includes sections related to HCL that were left out of the first draft budget completed and posted in the Gazette. This was expected since we know they have been paying out already on HCL. This also confirms to use once again HCL is done.

My impression is they are actually a bit behind on getting out this legislation. We have seen multiple payments already on HCL funding to the provinces. Come early May we will see yet another payment.

Like clock work articles will tell us the amount. We should all watch for it. How much more of a confirmation do we need that HCL is done? Have I made believers out of you disbelievers yet?

[Issuance of the Lower Denominations]

Then on Sunday out pops another article that announces to us that the GOI finance committee is to set up a separate committee to study the 50,000 and 100,000 dinar categories of coins (this is not about the paper notes).

The article says that they are concerned about issuing these coins since these denominations are the same as the 3 zero paper notes they have been already deleting out of circulation in the project to delete the zeros. So why bother issuing these coins? I do not see this study taking too long……lol….but you know Iraq….lol….:)

I also like this article because it reinforces to us many things we already knew:

1) proof that Iraq has already been deleting the 3 zero notes out of circulation (project to delete the zeros has been ongoing);

2) their determination and necessity to continue the project and complete it very soon.

My take on these two categories of coins (50,000 and 100,000) is also that these coins are old and have been kicking around for quite some time (since 2006).

Remember in the early stages of rolling out the new “provisional” currency with the “program” rate they desired to also roll out matching coins. If you were in this investment then you would have read many articles on this topic? I was in it and I can remember the fiasco with these coins way back then.

What a mess! Just another indication that you can’t forget past events either and how they now tie into current events and articles we are reading. If you want a true picture of status of this RV rollout process you must know the past too.

In the early stages of getting on the “provisional” currency they minted these coins and tried to roll them out to the general public.

They were widely accepted by the general public however the black market swiftly gobbled them up and melted them down for the value of the precious metal since it was worth more that the face value of the coins at the time.

They could not keep enough of them in circulation to make any real impact. It was expensive to mint them and expensive to keep the stocked in circulation.

So they halted the coin rollout project even way back then So we see these 2 denonimations of coins resurface out of the warehouse once again. These are not newly minted coins.

They know they can not issue ANY coins without also increasing the net value of the money (revaluation). They tried it before, as I have explained and it simply will not work once again. They know this fact.

So you see they want and desire to complete the rollout of all the lower denominations (paper and coins) but simple can not do so at this time. They will keep rehashing these coins over and over again but their hands are tied until the revaluation happens.

[Help with Terrorism]

I will state once again my position on terrorism in Iraq.

NO REVALUATION (or instatement) OF THE IQD WITHOUT SECURITY AND STABILITY!

The UN and the USA are determined to push their agenda on the elimination of terrorism in Iraq (in fact eventually throughout the middle east).This is not up for conjecture but is a fact!

But we are talking now about Iraq and its RV. We do not expect to have peace throughout the entire middle east before Iraq see its currency RV just so you know. Mnt Goat, the UN or the USA is not saying this.

The USA would love to come back into Iraq and sweep through these cities and clean up ISIS but there are two major obstacles.

If you have been paying any attention to the news you know what they are:

1) Prime minister Abadi (thus Iraq) does not want another massive buildup of USA troops or any international troop buildup in their country.

They just finally got rid of the USA in 2011 and are now having a problem with over 1 million Iranian militias. The last thing they need is to start a war between these militias and the USA ground forces.

Abadi is hoping he can convince an eventual peaceful Iranian pullout by pressure from the GCC.

Abadi is smart and he is using the Iranian Kud forces as long as he can to fight ISIS. But his stance is to ultimately get rid of them too.

Abadi knows the new agenda for the middle east in coming.

Having said all this I am not saying Iraq is not allowing USA airbase access in Iraq and does not want help in setting up a modern airforce (F16 fighters and ground support).

Don’t get carried away and be so quick to bash me on this topic. This is like comparing apples to oranges. One hand it is the heavy concentrations and movement of foreign troops that is not welcomed in Iraq mostly by the citizens who live and work their.

2) The government would luv to have USA come in and kick butt with ISIS. But is doing so comes a price. They will need immunity, they will need marshall law. So you see it is not that simple! Iraq is not going along with these conditions.

But the stance is mainly a political one in not allowing foreign troops to come in massive force. The USA will not risk small contingencies of soldiers fighting alongside ill-equipped, ill- trained Iraq soldiers.

The risk is simply too high and the American public would crucify the current Obama administration for allowing a screw up.

So instead the USA led coalition brings advisors, supply weapons and ammunitions along with air support. So in support of the Peshmerga, the Iraqi army, the Iranian militias they fight. Slowly chipping away at ISIS and it takes time.

They have many timetables. One is for relative success with ISIS the other is in the rollout process. They are attempting to coincide the events. So slow down in the ISIS fighting slows down the RV rollout process.

There is timetable too. So many of you readers I am sure are now asking - what is this timetable?

I have told you the timetable as Iraq too has announced it. They told us point bank that they do not expect to have ISIS cleaned up anytime prior to early summer (brings us to mid June). What more do you want?

They actually came right out and told us! THIS IS THEIR TIMETABLE ! Do I need to repeat it again? Are you listening this time?

However in having this timetable causes other issues too some of which I mentioned today already.

[A New ISIS Strategy]

However recently a new strategy. How about holding on to the cities once liberated so you don’t have to go back and re-fight them over and over again?

This takes yet more ground troops to protect the areas once cleared. This has been a major part of the problem all along. Another issue is in letting the ISIS (enemy) flee from the battlefield only to end up regrouping and moving on to take (or re-take) yet another city.

Thus encirclement tactics began in the taking back Turik as they cut off supplies and encircled the enemy, slowly squeezing the circle tighter and tighter. No one escapes to fight another day.

The only way out is surrender or death! This is the only way to fight ISIS. It is more costly and involves many more ground troops and holding and securing much more territory. It is costly, more time consuming but gets the job done. This is where they are today if you really want to know.

So you see there had to be a re-thinking of how to handle ISIS. The early stages of the battles it was thought to be a cake walk but this was proven not to be true since many Sunni citizens defected over to fight with ISIS. There was also no way to cutoff their re-supplies.

Their attitude was the lesser of two evils since many of the promises from the old Maliki government never materialized and this was their solution (at least ISIS made them believe it would be). Now that they see the new Abadi government is very different we are seeing the changes take place.

Lack of support from the USA is not about president Obama being a week president or a peace monger. I can assure you of that. In fact the USA is giving vast amounts of support and we see Abadi today in Washington asking yet for more. (This meeting today is not about the RV! ….lol…..:)….)

The support we see as outsiders often may not meet our usual expectations as sightseers but I can assure you the USA is not weak and is using all possible means allowed to help the people of Iraq in their fight against terrorism.

Naunawa Province deputy in Iraqi parliament stated 10000 Kurdish forces of Peshmerga would participate in operation to liberate the Iraqi northern city of Mosul, center of the province that fell to the control of the Islamic State (IS) in June last year.

Hanin al-Ghado told IMN that the Kurdish forces would participate along with Iraqi forces in operation to liberate the city. The operation would state from Spaiker base, the official said.

Al-Ghado added that the date of the operation would be announced by Iraqi Prime Minister Hiader al-Abadi and Iraqi armed forces commander.

Arguably the most important article of the GCC charter is Article 4, which states that the alliance was formed to strengthen relations among its member countries and to promote cooperation among the countries’ citizens. The GCC also has a defense planning council that coordinates MILITARY COOPERATION between member countries.

So you can see that Iraq is not going to fail. It is a foundational, a pivotal country in the Middle East and soon to join the GCC.

Peace and Luv To Ya All.