Last point on this.
The power of incumbent players to control the market depends upon the type of market opportunity. Which kind of market does Wave operate in?
In a theoretically open market, in which innovators and incumbents operate on a level playing field, incumbents cannot influence rule-makers, don't control the supply chain and don't define access to the market, there's no reason that a company with a new idea should not succeed. But this all things equal market is a unicorn fantasy. Only optimistic investors inhabit this untroubled realm in which there are no market politics and are astonished by Wave's lack of traction.
In a market of optional common standards, it is going to be fairly tricky to avoid the prisoner's dilemma. Folks will pursue their own self-interest. In the TC world, this means that standards are likely edited to give preferences to incumbents. If there was a theoretically trustworthy sovereign authority at TC's heart, or if the incumbent actors could be ranged against each other to ensure an equitable environment, perhaps things could be designed to ensure equality of opportunity. But at present, the way the TC market is forming, it looks like sovereign involvement weakens security and there is a significant dollop of incumbent preference built in.
In a series of parallel proprietary ecosystems like mobile telephony, the innovator has little opportunity to enter the market. OS vendors like Apple managed it. If I remember correctly, they did so by working with a struggling carrier (AT&T), offering some sort of exclusivity and bringing immense credibility on the demand side. Once Apple established its foothold, demand dynamics took over and the other carriers joined up. Smaller innovators don't have that advantage.
In a quasi-monopolistic ecosystem like the Windows-related network environment or the Apple store, opportunists do get chances to push their products into the market; but if the market proves substantial, their projects are liable to be absorbed by the quasi-monopolist. If you are fortunate, your little business is purchased. If you are unfortunate, your enterprise is crushed or marginalised.
Lastly, there's the undiscovered country. Moving into a territory that no one has built in previously and no controlling proprietory interests exist. You build your own supply chain and distribution network from the ground up. If you go in this direction, I suggest you need to have a strong demand dynamic in play. You have to offer something that is unthreatening, very shiny and for which the marketing message is extremely simple. You want the customer step to seem small - not a giant leap into the dark. The new paradigm message is a disaster - you want to provide a path that looks evolutionary even if you are actually doing something very new. Customer pull is the main force you have going for you. Customer feedback will help shape your product. If you can get demand behind you, perhaps the sky's the limit.
I think Wave has tried to operate in each of the realistic environments above. But the one that contained the most hope was the last.
Unfortunately, they haven't yet found a product the market seems to want in volume. I think Solms has gone about things the right way. But the measure of success is in the cash flows. Sometimes the market doesn't exist the way you hope it does.
For me, the main issue is that the carriers and OS vendors want the customer relationship. It's very hard to get around that.
