I suggest you read the account on this topic published by Traderfan yesterday. He is the person who has good Insight into these questions. I would just like to add: let's assume there is a 70 % probability that something will happen. The fact that it does not happen does not PROVE that there was no such probability. My guess that it was likely that there would be a gap-down was not proved to be false because there was no gap-down.
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