I was told that one of my old posts was brought up. Funny how after 12+ months nothing significant has changed in this argument.
It is futile to try and convince the 2 factions that the other may have valid points. Those who choose to ignore the glaring and obvious signals (that have been flashing for the past 9 years) surely aren't going to start caring about them now. And those who believe that insignificant and often irrelevant or conflicting statements from the company do not equate to actual progress will also likely not change their point of view.
This will be my only post for the year, so I'm going to cover a lot. You are all welcome to disregard what I say, but if you reread what I spent too much of my free time in my last years in college trying to do: namely get clarity and accountability on developments and comments made by the company, you'll see I was significantly more right than wrong in my past posts.
In '11 I said no tox completed in '12, in '12 I said no tox completed '13, in '13 I said no tox completed in '14 and now in '15 I'm saying no tox completed in '15. All the while the company was claiming it WOULD be completed in these years. My record remains 100% correct for past predictions and will remain so until the end of '15 when I will post again to say tox will not be completed in '16. And Seymour and Diwan know why. It's natural to think "no way, that's ridiculous" but it was also natural to feel "no way, that's ridiculous" when I said no tox in '13 and no tox in '14.
'14 saw: no operational facility, no tox completion, no successful scale up, no clinicals begun, no additional results reported for ANY of the cides.
As Seymour calls it: "A great year!"
The RS was a huge bust. The company is worth SIGNIFICANTLY less today than it was when it did the RS, as are investors' shares. Well, not ALL investors as Dr.B is getting a guaranteed return on his $$$. And Diwan (and his wife) and Seymour are still making out BIG TIME.
'15 will be worse.
I asked in '13 what people would say if tox were not completed and the facility were not operational in '14 and heard "it would never happen," "silly question," ...but those who were willing to at least contemplate divergent perspectives said they would be greatly concerned.
Well?
Remember the claim that clinicals would be starting in late '14 or early '15? Recently Diwan said 12-18 months until clinicals. That's '16 at the earliest! Once again, they move the goal posts and mgmt hopes all will accept it. They have to. If the market did accept reality, the obvious truth is too painful. Hopes and fortunes gone.
The market just don't realize that they are already gone, at least the fortunes part.
The idea that a failed USAMRIID test will have little impact on the stock or company is absurd. On this I agree with you. Remember, we've been hearing for YEARS that the reason this is taking so long to move through the system is that it is an entirely new platform and type of treatment. That's been the excuse for the delays and "large quantity" requirements for Tox, production issues, facility requirements, FDA not sure how to treat this "revolutionary new form of treatment"... and a myriad of other stall tactics. If Ebola fails, it means the entire platform is in question and suspect. Like antibiotics, it's a platform, they are proven to either work or not work. So if Ebolacide II is a bust, why would anyone believe Flucide will work? It's the platform and technology that is being tested. And if it DOES work and the SP Doubles (a huge IF) then maybe I'll jump back in at $5. Which is still below what many here are holding it at.
BTW, I am no longer a holder of NNVC. I was never short and held for over 8 years. But when I saw most (over 50%) of the "friends and family" shares being dumped (yes, I'm that close), slowly and methodically, so as not to upset the cart too much, I got out too. Did pretty well. IF this thing ever moves, which i honestly don't think it will, there will be plenty of time to get back in. Even if it get's to $5 again, if they truly have a cure for viruses, then this will be a double or triple digit stock. No need to risk losing everything when there will still be plenty of time for getting in if they ever do anything. Which they won't.
See you in Jan of '16, When I will add another year of missed promises and deadlines, another round of dilution and probably at least one new "flavor of the month" that will become the new priority, delaying any and all movement of Flucide. Facility won't be operational yet, and they will still have the same 3 (or is it 6) employees. Remember the mantra: '12 is the year...no, '13 is the year...no, '14 is the Year...no '15 is the year! Anyone else see the pattern?
Oh, and Seymour's nephew, is either an impostor or a liar. I call selling over 50% of your shares dumping. Especially when you look at what was done with the money - yes I know (hint: Seymour doesn't give anything away for free).
New facility will not produce tox material in '15. Scale up production will not be completed in '15.
Tox will not be completed in '15.
Go NNVC!
