Short Term Trading Member Forum

[techcharter]

Time to CACkle in French.

The French CAC index made a new 52 week high within the past week while I wasn't looking. This helps to clarify its E-wave count.

Wave 4 Triangle: This is a big one, 7 months long. June 2014 high to first early January 2015 pullback. I originally counted this as a bunch of wave 1-2 combinations, but now must change it.

Wave 5 Motive thrust: Classic post-triangle behavior. Last chance to get off the elevator. The wave looks complete, but the bullish count has not been eliminated. Falling below 4500 would be a hint of the top being in since the price would have broken its lower trendline. Falling below 4200 would confirm the top and reversal.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CAC&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p24181651555

But lets step WAY back and look at the BIG picture.

Count 1:
WAVE 4 Triangle from Year 2000 high to Year 2011 low.
WAVE 5 in Wave 5. Truncating with respect to WAVE 3.

Count 2:
WAVE 4 Flat from Year 2000 high to Year 2009 low.
WAVE 5 in Wave 5. Ending Diagonal and truncating with respect to WAVE 3.

Both portend major crashes. Count 2 implies a faster crash than Count 1.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Index&symb=fr%3A1804546&time=20&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=1%2F4%2F2013&freq=2&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=8&x=17&y=18