Callon Petroleum (CPE)

[DragonBear]

by 2015 Saudi will have lost 400bil???

The Saudis started the price war in just the last 3-4 months. Their entire oil revenue for 2013 was $274B. Claims they have lost out on $400B in 4 months of 2014 is hyperbolic.

Pickens needs to take an Aricept. The Saudi target is the US frackers. The Saudis aren't pumping more oil, and selling it for less just for giggles. Cripple the US frackers, grab market share, and then allow oil prices to go back up. The real risk for the Saudis is that meanwhile OPEC falls apart.

If the Saudis are going to back off, it will be before Jun, or the US summer driving season of peak demand. If the US GDP takes off from yesterday's 5%, that would be another factor. Oil won't be going back to $100 anytime in 2015. But $70 would eliminate the pressure on the US frackers. The time scale is either 3-6 months, or over a year (yuk).

A CPE needs the shorter time frame in order to meet its debt payments.