I think the current price is all about the probably of approval and the cost and time needed to get that approval. I believe the price is going down because most investors are in this for the ADT, and at the time of the CC the CEO could not tell is exactly where we stand and the timeline for moving forward. He indicated that if there was going to be more tests it would delay us by months, but he did not indicate how much it would cost. So there is fear associated with the unknown. What he promised a year ago is that they would be ready to file in Dec and they are. But we are waiting on the FDA. Given he originally planned to have the meeting in Oct and file in Dec it looks like he was estimating that they would take 2 months to figure out whether he could file. So the ambiguity could continue through Jan.
The call also focused on the generic business much more than previous calls. I believe that is because there wasn't much to report on the ADT side of things. Other tests are ongoing and we don't know for sure what the FDA will want for us to file and he said this on the call, but he doesn't haven finalized tests to report. I'm bet he is not going to start new ones until he hears back from the FDA on Eli-200.
I'm not too worried as any follow on tests will certainly be much less than 33+ million (which is about how much LPC funding we have left).
The very positive part of the call was with respect to the generics. Not only in that Isradipine will launch before the end of the year, but also "we expect a much greater contribution from Phendimetrazine in 2015". Combine that with their improved economic and labor efficiencies we should be seeing revenue bumps as we move forward which decreases the reliance on the LPC funding. Before the end of the year we may also get a PR about a decision on a marketing partner, recall that was one of the reasons that the CEO was on the west coast. Not sure it will move the price, but it is establishing the foundation once something is approved.
