Friday, October 24, 2014 10:38:30 PM
Conventional market valuation number is 5 time annual sale, therefore we have a market valuation of 8.4X5=$42 billions.
By industry average, for a breakthrough technology in drug/life science, the royalty for "ready for launch" product is 30% (adjusted by profit margin).
In other words, we could expect 0.3X42=$12.6 billions royalty income for CTIX.
In my experience, this $12.6 won't all reflect in stock price. CTIX is a company in developing. It has to yield some interests to others, internally and externally. I believe 70% of stock price realization is more realistic, based on my experience. That is to say that we could expect 0.7x12.6=$8.82 billions market cap for B alone, within next 3 years according to Leo' workaholic tempo.
But, I actually believe BK's 15% market penetration rate is way too low. I expected a 30% market penetration rate a minimum. We could easily see a $15 billion market cap for Brilacidin alone. That'll give us $136 apiece for the stock price.
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