Happy Friday.
Currently the PPS is down 10% and the back-biting rats are back in force. The board has gotten very nasty and personal again.
I’ve been thinking about all the various discussion topics and have come to some conclusions of my own:
We really don’t know what game plans are being devised by management, and we can’t expect to know. We also don’t know what considerations the FDA is making with respect to Vascepa, and we never will. We also don’t know the extent that Vascepa will be accepted by the medical community.
Given all this uncertainty - the regulatory snafus, the less-than-stellar rollout of V, the balance sheet issues, there is great room for doubting the prospects of AMRN. And that is certainly reflected in the current stock price (down to $0.94 as I write this). However, there is still a GREAT DEAL of positive potential:
1) FDA could agree to an expanded label, especially since they seem to have painted themselves into a corner with their SPA decision. 2) Sales could begin to accelerate. KOWA’s involvement, further acceptance by insurers, more referrals based on positive patient results, etc. – all of these are potential drivers. 3) REDUCE-IT might produce excellent results. Not at all out of the question. 4) Additional CV-related studies – like the ones Zumantu frequently finds and posts – could eventually sway not just the FDA, but key organizations to give EPA the same kind of respect that statins have enjoyed. 5) Purified EPA will begin to gain traction in non-CVD treatments (off label prescriptions, primarily). 6) Unknown developments in knowledge about how EPA works and its potential benefits.
Given what we DON’T know, it’s easy to be down on this investment. But given what we DO know, in terms of potential upsides, I see no reason to sell off even at this level and take a huge loss. It may seem like the longs are dreaming, but I feel otherwise.
Having the best-in-class EPA drug is reason to stay the course, while the experts sort out where EPA belongs in the medical playbook. It’s not going away anytime soon, that’s for sure.
