My opinion...
Sure revenues from Block 9 natural gas would be great, but they are still at least 2 years away IMO. They need a pipeline (gas/oil) to get Block 9 revenues going and you don't truck gas short term for quick revenue, do they? (some oily folk can correct me if I'm wrong). Progress on an oil pipeline (that could carry gas too) would be even better, but that is just talk and paper MOUs. It's not desinged, not engineered or bid out, so again, IMO it will take a lot of time and probalby longer than any of we investors wish. Remember this is Africa and fast track isn't part of the culture and all of the materials, supplies have to be imported. So IMO with regard to gas in Block 9, I'd guess we sell all of B9 to Marathon or another buyer... instead of waiting for a pipeline and revenue.
IMO what will move the share price (now that the reserves report has come and disappointed...) is one or more of these:
1. One or more new basin discoveries... IMO this is the most likely price mover near term and what I'm banking on. KH said a week ago that we have two look alike basins to drill soon. I like look alike basins! Then we have Turkana 10BA with much potential...5 billion P-10 (see the presentations for the past two years) to drill late next year. So my money (literally) is on discovering new basins and success with the drill bit.
2. Serious talk or real offer to buy AOIFF or sell off a percentage. My hope is eventually, yes, we'll be sold, but we have another year of basin opening work to do. What price we get depends on where we are at with expanding out our recent successes and the new basins success or failure. I have a lot of faith in the Lundins. They are much smarter than I, so I plan to ride their expertise to the sellout point for most of my shares.
3. Certainty with the Kenyan Govt. and tax /takings laws. I sounds like some of the capital gains issues are settled (5%), but more ahead in national legislation - to be introduced next month some one posted a few days ago. IMO the Kenyans are getting greedy...just like we investors. The sooner the political uncertainty around Kenya's share is settled, the better for our shareprice. It would be nice to see some Kenyan Presidnetial leadership. IMO it is unlikely we get a buy out until this uncertainty is settled. Also, I don't trust the Oil Minsiter David Chirchir. He's a slimey one, with a big ego, IMO.
Disclosure. I'm not an industry expert,not a Kenyan epert... just a reglualr investor, long on AOI.
Best to you all and IMHO.
dat
