Marani Brands Inc. (MRIB)

[Matthew Berg]

What revs, what is the bottom line? No one knows for sure. They need to produce the evidence of it. They also need to provide closure on the "big contracts" that were PR'd so long ago. A few sales here and there are good, but don't keep the lights on.

Actually we can very accurately estimate revenues both for Q2, Q3 and the fiscal year from documented financials and factual information. In essence we can cut through all the BS claims of real product, real management, real contracts, real ads, etc. which do not exist and look strictly at undebatable REAL numbers.

Q1 is easy because the company released the revenue numbers. $2,500 in gross sales which was $0 in actual revenue. We also know there was no revenue in the previous two quarters from documented financials. Q2 is the only number we don't have which is also the final Q of the MRIB fiscal year. Knowing that there were no revenues for the first three quarters of their fiscal year we can easily estimate with 100% certainty the maximum amount of revenue for Q2 2014 and the last MRIB fiscal year. It may not be the exact number but if we err to the high side the final estimate is absolutely undebatable.

Everything comes down to product available for sale. We are not sure about old inventory or how the accounting was done but it's been reported as high as $130,000. Let's err to the high side and give them that. We know another container arrived and upped inventory by another $145,000 in gross margin product for a total inventory of $275,000. We know it's not true but let's say that MRIB sold 100% of that inventory. Sold out completely in Q2. That comes to revenue of $275K for Q2 and also the total for the year. That's revenue, NOT PROFIT! So we know for a FACT MRIB cannot report any more than that for the entire year. As it applies to share price BEFORE expenses it amounts to $.0005 per share. Not good considering you haven't paid anyone yet.

Moving to the real numbers, earnings. We can get pretty accurate here as well erring to the high side. With $275,000 in gross margin or revenue we apply a generous operating margin of 40%. So we know that absolute maximum earnings for the year will be $110,000. FACT: it cannot be more. Disregarding the reported $360,000 in just SGA for the nine months ended at Q1 2014, earnings cannot total more than .0002 per share. At a 20X multiple we get an estimated PPS of around $.004. That's it folks. Can't be no more.

That said, I've assumed they sold every last bottle they had and all in June 2014. I've assumed they had less than 50% of the expenses actually reported. I've also assumed they got top dollar for every last bottle with no returns or discounts. I've given MRIB a net operating margin of 40% which is outrageously generous and unrealistic but nonetheless every single number is in favor of the company. AND, we haven't even touched on the $2 million in current debt already on the books. Bottom line is I have been generous to a fault but it clearly illustrates why this company is not even worth the PPS it's at now. That PPS is not zero yet simply resting on the hope of international contracts coming through which we all know is a bunch of hooey and a ruse used by the company in the past.

What we all need to be aware of is that the trading you're seeing is not manipulation or MMs up to no good nor is it panic selling. It is zero cost holders with not only the above information which as you can see is easy to calculate, but owners of inside information close to the company or creditors to whom the books were made available or even actual insiders and/or their nominees. They are simply systematically unloading every chance they get before it totally bottoms out and certainly before the next financials come out which I absolutely guarantee will be far from the rosy picture I've painted above and far from "pleasant". Any bounce will only be a function of those who try to prop PPS with above market tiny trades as they slip further and further under water. The big money will come back and hammer them every time with millions of shares that must be disposed of before September 30th.