Innovation Pharmaceuticals Inc (IPIX)

[I Need Help]

Today's trade looked constructive. Volume is still reasonably good, 183,146 shares, especially when considering the upcoming holiday weekend.

I liked that CTIX found good support at and above the $2 level. I actually nibbled on additional shares at $2.01 myself.

Tomorrow should be a very low volume day for the market. I think the exchanges will be open for the whole day, but most traders will probably be looking to leave early for their extended weekends. Because of this, I would assume tomorrow will be a pretty light trading day for CTIX. But, one never knows for sure.

I would expect there to be some pent up demand for CTIX shares when the market opens on Tuesday.

Most buying has been coming in clumps. Very little activity most of the day, with usually two active buying periods. I have noticed this trend for a few weeks. Mostly, the activity has been mid morning and afternoon. Today, had a light active period in the morning, and one very, light period at the close. As one would assume, price is weakest in between the buying periods, with rallies during. This behavior, I believe, supports Smart Money or professional accumulation. If retail, I think the buying would be more random throughout the day. Also, there has been virtually no trading during the market lunch hour (extended many times). The purchasing has been significantly down the past two sessions, which corresponds to general market volume being light. Really, lots of professionals and traders take extended labor day vacations. The upcoming shortened trade week will most likely be a light volume week too. Retail investors are likely to be taking vacations as well.

Market and company news tends to be lighter going into and through most Labor Day weekends. So, I support some who have posted that it is less likely for a PR to come out until the second week of Sept., which also happens to be R&R week. But, CTIX could surprise. I think the company is sitting on news. Just my thinking.

My observations have led me to have the opinion that non-retail is still driving the price and supporting the price. This participation has been significantly down the past two sessions, but is still active. This activity is the biggest single reason for my current optimism concerning PPS. I anticipated price to be soft the last few days, and I really am unsure what tomorrow will bring. But, I think the nonretail will be a support for the price, and I think it will return in force before the R&R presentation. Retail investors will likely pour in whenever a substantial and positive PR or story hits the wires. A good possibility will be the R&R conference, maybe a PR just before or after. I think the strength of retail involvement will determine whether there will be sell off on the news or a rally beyond the news.

I think it is possible that CTIX could make a yearly high around the time of the R&R conference. While there is always the possibility the PPS can decline, I think the proximity to the R&R conference will give price support.

Selling from profit taking has most likely been up the past two sessions. Overall, I see no significant selling pressure. But, there has been more large block selling during high volume days. I would expect more of this next week. Actually, I am not seeing much evidence for any participants trying to depress (shorts) or goose the share price. Nonretail has been active for periods of time, not seeming to time their activity on low price support or pushing the price higher. There has been no evidence of any price painting at close.

As the price has moved higher, walls of selling have materialized. Yesterday, there was significant resistance at $2.10 and $2.11 (never really breached). Buyers have not really attacked the walls. They have been patient, buying just below the walls. One aspect of this is that motivated sellers will reduce their Ask's, allowing buyers to take shares at a lower price and weakening the walls. A day like today, actually appeared to be very constructive as another consolidation day. Looking at the last three days, most of the activity and consolidation has taken place between $2.04 and $2.10.

My general thinking and forward looking analysis is much in line with what I have read from TOB's and some other's posts.

There may be some quick trade opportunities in the next several sessions, but I think the results could be mixed and the risk high.

Some technicals are still in the overbought, and profit takers could still put some pressure on the price. Though, I would assume most profit taking has been done for the present. There also may be some savvy investors/traders stepping in to buy on dips. As is typical for CTIX, most shares are pretty much locked down and not in float.

Best to all. For those taking an early vacation, enjoy.