Nice insight but nobody knew the Chinese would allow the black market to mine, refine and distribute 100,000s of mtons of rare earths (do you really believe the govt did not know)?
It's all up to the Chinese now. It was 97% Chinese production a decade ago, 90% a few years later, now, thanks to Molycorp and Lynas, less.
Mountain Pass will survive. But Molycorp MUST prepare for potential dishonesty on the latest press releases from China. There are no more excuses about "oh it's the black market" -- if this continues, we have to prepare for a future of lower prices, and Molycorp will have to decide what business it's in. Mining may have to be mothballed or slowed until Hot China cools off after burning up all of it's coal, burning out all of it's people, and contaminating all of it's land and water. It's really that simple.
Molycorp will survive, maybe in a smaller form. It is unlikely that China has a snowball's chance in hell if it does not turn the ship around, and quickly. Not just in the rare earths space, either.
What happens here will be a bellwether for the economy as a whole.
