Friday, July 25, 2014 12:48:21 PM
This is a simplified investment valuation model that Wall Street uses for development stage biotechs:
1. How long until topline trial results are out?
2. What are the odds that the results will meet the primary endpoint?
3. What is the market size of the drug if approved?
When I bought the stock in early 2013, topline results were supposed to be out in late 2014 since the trial was going to wrap up in Q2. A while back I pointed to a presentation that she made in 2011 that said results would be out in 2013.
Not knowing where we stand on #1 is affecting our investment. If someone thinks a good investment strategy is "It doesn't matter what I paid - what the stock price is today - or how many years until I make a profit", then don't plan on being successful at investing.
And by the way, how long someone has held the stock is irrelevant to whatever point they are making.
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