Sovaldi Warehousing and Otezla Trends Continue UBS
Update on Sovaldi prescription data: TRx -6%, NRX -2% w/w
Scripts for Gilead's Sovaldi during the week ending July 18 were released this morning with total scripts of 7,551, down 6% from last week. New Rx were 2,889, down 2% w/w. The trend continues to suggest warehousing ahead of the ledipasvir / sofosbuvir combo expected in 4Q. A total of 19,461 scripts and 7,271 new scripts have been recorded in 3Q. Conservatively, we are tracking to $1.3bn for 3Q Sovaldi sales (current Bloomberg consensus is $2.4bn) if no additional patients are added for the rest of the quarter. We assume 95% complete therapy (97.5% refill in months 2 and 3 each), a 12% gross-to-net pricing (more conservative than Gilead comments imply), a 0.88 correction factor suggested by scripts vs. reported sales, and 10% of NRx are actually refills. Below, we include a plot of the launch thus far for Sovaldi, compared to the same period of the launches for Incivek and Victrelis.
Update on Otezla prescription data: TRx +4%, NRx +4% w/w
Scripts for Celgene's Otezla indicate TRx of 812 (up 4% w/w), and NRx of 605 (up 4% w/w) during the week ending July 18. Below, we include a plot of the launch thus far for Otezla, compared to the same period of the launch for Xeljanz. Launch-to-date, Otezla TRx is tracking 75% higher than Xeljanz’s launch, despite the fact that the Otezla Rx trends exclude the titration packs offered to patients to initiate therapy.
