Wednesday, July 16, 2014 3:25:18 AM
this new factor, the Yellen statement, just makes the tricky picture a little more tricky to watch now.
The basic targets ought to remain the same because PVCT has already been collapsed to unreal lows. 30 cents/ 45 cents, after reaching a cycle top at 3.70....that's a 90 % collapse from that wave top. A normal pullback should have held support around 1.60-2.20 area. that long sideways stretch of support zone. This collapse to 45 cents is still a ridiculous Bottom zone. But having said that, it does become a target as a Bottom. I doubt 45 cents will be tested. The first realistic target bottom would be the 64 Gap area. Maybe now,with Yellen bearish comment, we could see that target as being 'in play' with more potential. Up to this point I was not setting stink bids at 64 cents. Most were set around 70/73/75/80.
When you look at the XBI charts, how long did it take for that big pullback wave to reach the bottom ...late February thru mid April, about 7 weeks. and then slid sideways at the bottom for another month.
Of course each individual stock has its own movement speed.
PVCT collapsed like lightning. its previous significant moves took place over what looks like 6 days time periods.
The problem with analyzing PVCT chart is that it has behaved with very little correlation to the biotech indexes. So it may not even be very helpful to compare it to any other charts. But as I looked at and posted all these other charts, what shows most clear to me is that each individual biotech has been doing its own thing, some have correlated well with the index, but many do not. If you just go look at the IBB and XBI Holdings, the list of each individual biotech shows which ones have done well, and which have not, its a big mixed bag .
So all these charts, don't really help me to analyze PVCT.
But glancing at different charts has shown me that some went soaring , while others pulled back, some are at a top zone still, and others are in a middle zone , waiting to go down more, or rally back. This exercise feels like a lot of effort with little fruits for my labor.
what does that tell us about these biotech stocks. its important to pick only the good ones. . and to have strong due diligence ,and to know the companies we own.
It must take a lot of effort to do a lot of research , and to keep up with all the fundamentals . and the best time to do that research and buy the ones you want was 2 years ago for many of them. and 1 year ago for the others.
It makes me feel like the February top zone, or any current top zone that some are now making...was/is the place to take a lot of profit. and watch what the rest of the year does for a pullback. The time to buy was 1 and 2 years ago. the time to take profit was Feb/March , and Yellen's forecast warning might be very real .
I like the top zone targets for PVCT. 1.45/1.55/1.65/1.80 etc etc
as places to take some profits. and the buy zone from 80 to 64 cents.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=PVCT&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&i=p89290616269&r=1405489227767
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=PVCT&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&i=p69426849925&r=1405489532061
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=PVCT&p=W&b=5&g=0&i=p95391017930&r=1405489740524
Heres a few other good biotechs that have made big pullbacks from the February top, their bounce thru may/june, and now, and they seem to follow along the XBI/IBB index charts.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=TTPH&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&i=p32483252646&r=1405490078614
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SGEN&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&i=p89068724557&r=1405490433676
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=GALT&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&i=p59049384701&r=1405491180101
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=CBST&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&i=p79064011153&r=1405491462147
But the problem is other biotech stocks have done better in this cycle, maybe bubbled up with momentum and publicity hype, but their charts look different , and are still at top zones.when will these come crashing down, I wonder.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=FLML&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&i=p29601703826&r=1405491664686
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=DRTX&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&i=p51325859834&r=1405491711292
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=CELG&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&i=p87029200326&r=1405492284825
I guess all I can say is with PVCT , I might buy some more below 80. and I will sell some at and above 1.45(1.40-1.85)
and that's about all I need to plan for .
Recent PVCT News
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