Hey Will, there are a few things we need to keep in mind. One, CIGS technology, although very promising 2 years ago when Tom began the project, is no longer cost competitive with Si. This means dumping R&D $$$ into the technology is foolhardy, even if it is better technology.
Two, while reports have been made about the efficiency of XsunX's CIGS solar cells (16% +), they were not made in his prototype disposition equipment. They were one-off samples which simply prove that the technology is feasible. Plus, Si modules now have efficiencies this high....my standard imported "budget" module comes in at 15.7%. That module is made of Si cells that typically test at over 18%. And I sell them to my customers for under a dollar a watt, which if you remember, was Tom's financial market viability threshold.
Three, there have been no sustained production runs with the equipment, and in fact no one can prove that the machine has ever made even one CIGS solar cell. And, prototypes never go to market. Tom MUST demonstrate the reliability of the machinery, acceptable sustained production rates, and consistent quality of the manufactured cell. This is true of any manufacturing industry.
Only sales of the process and equipment will drive further research and development. Sales will not happen if there is no market for the manufactured product. This is the reason we have not had a CIGS update in well over a year, and is the reason I said CIGS technology is dead, or at the very least in a deep coma. The market will need to change drastically in order to revive interest in CIGS solar technology.
If the American solar module manufacturers and Congress are highly successful in killing the Chinese solar manufacturing market (in the USA) with tariffs and trade penalties we might see Si module prices rise enough to make CIGS a little more competitive, but that would have a very deleterious effect on the industry at large. Any jobs saved in the manufacturing sector will be more than offset by losses in the integration sector due to increased installation costs. This in turn will reduce demand, forcing prices down even further, and ultimately destroying the very jobs the tariffs were designed to protect in the first place. I could scream! Typical government solution: Everybody looses.
Only a fresh technology and innovation will have any real effect on this stock. We can only hope.
