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Unless you think there is some hidden piece of news that is driving the drop, it's not really unsettling, just enervating.
I am taking advantage of this extended buying opportunity to buy in bits and pieces without breaking the bank, deferring credit card payments or doing anything else that is foolish. I've been able to substantially increase my position and a couple of days ago I bought at about 50 cents and now its 47 cents. So what? If my investing thesis is right, I'll be way past that, not to begrudge 3 cents here or there. If my investing thesis is wrong, I should get out now (I don't think I'm wrong, not in the medium run, anyway).
The market (which appears to consist mainly of existing retailers) seems to pricing in the idea that approval is not happening in April 2024 and probably won't happen in May 2024 so there is no FOMO that is causing people to mortgage their houses, get payday loans, borrow money, sell other 'quality' stocks etc. to raise large amounts to buy.
We've just had way too many 'last chances to buy cheap' for anyone to get excited here.
So, in the absence of news, and with Captain Obvious' share counter continuing to go up as NWBO gets money to keep the lights on, why would the price stay stable?
Instead, the share price will slowly get pulled down by gravity and while it might be buffeted briefly upward, with the absence of news, the tendency is to settle towards the ground.
Now if we are still this price in late May or early June 2024, then that is time to start talking about manipulation or at least be concerned there's some hidden shoe yet to drop that smart money knows about, because by that time, FOMO should start kicking in.
Given that the individual who started this is not supporting their position with hard facts combined with informed speculation on what MHRA approval is likely to do for the SP, I would agree with you.
Someone who discusses the issue with facts and informed speculation about the post-MHRA environment, can on the other hand, have a valid discussion of this issue, even now. To say otherwise would be to rule a sober discussion of other topics like revenues to be out-of-bounds until MHRA approval, in which case, we wouldn't be left with much to read.
I disagree with the idea that it is guaranteed to come, but I believe that the possibility that it is likely to happen can only be dismissed with evidence and reasoning showing how other courses besides an R/S would be more expedient for management than an R/S. Just dismissing the concern based on who is perceived as raising it is a weak argument given the history of the company turning to this tool.
A comparison of an R/S vs other strategies for getting the price high enough for uplisting could be explored with the pros and cons enumerated. So too could the benefits of deferring uplisting until we have profits rolling in.
The quote you provided did not come from me but from someone else’s post.
Please refrain from false attributions, especially when you put the word ‘fact’ in all caps. If you are going to quote someone else in a post to me, say who you’re quoting so people do not think it comes from the person you’re replying to.
In any case, the fact that you are stooping to this nonsense tells me it’s time for me to leave the NWBO discussion alone for a while and go back to waiting (hopefully not on Gidot).
At this point, nothing would surprise me and like you, I am increasingly tempering my expectations for what MHRA will do for us and I am starting to look towards what the FDA approval will do for the SP or even just what bringing in tangible revenue that actually shows up in a meaningful way on our balance sheet will do.
For anyone who invested in Fall 2023 or onwards, the time spent invested, the price per share and the profit gained will work out well for them, even if MHRA isn't when we start getting golden eggs but obviously folks investing for the first time now will be better off than I ever will be or those who went before.
As you said, time will tell.
Assuming that is true, it still only explains the lack of transparency by the regulator through May 9, 2022.
Bureaucratic nonsense could be a partial explanation for the time since May 10, 2022. Maybe there was no mechanism for properly informing the company of the reason once the trial ended and NWBO perhaps had strategic in curiosity and never asked the regulator after TLD and so was never told. This they could always say they didn’t know and the company cannot share what it does not know.
Or maybe NWBO did find out the reason from the regulator after TLD and chose not to share it.
As with most things NWBO there will be different ‘obvious’ answers and little clarity.
First, to my knowledge, there has never been an official explanation of the enrollment halt or which regulator imposed it, only that it was lifted.
Second your description incorrectly calls the pause in enrollment a trial halt, which it was not as patients already enrolled continued to be treated.
That said, as an NWBO shareholder I have long believed that once the halt was lifted there should have been proper transparency and that vague characterizations about it complaining about ‘turning good news into bad’ have not been sufficient explanation for an event that harmed our investment here.
One could argue against my position and say that NWBO had to wait that until the trial was over to tell the whole truth about the enrollment halt in order to avoid compromising the trial.
However in April 2024, nearly two years after Top-Line Data was released, we should know and not have to speculate about what happened and why.
The continuing lack of transparency on the enrollment halt creates scope for critics like yourself to portray the enrollment halt in a negative light, to the detriment of shareholders.
To address the overall thrust of your questions many disruptive technologies advanced by small players get ignored by established players, especially if they do not fit into their business model.
DCVax-L and Direct are disruptive technologies that do not fit into Big Pharma’s business model or even the business model of hospitals and oncologists (though this to a lesser degree). Direct could even disrupt not just chemo and radiation but down the road could also reduce reliance on surgery if used as an alternative for operative tumors (right now it’s intended for inoperable).
For one example, look at the fact Blockbuster turned down the chance to buy Netflix in its infancy. Where is Blockbuster now?
Ideally, NWBO is under communicating so that the following is set up:
1. We do not have a pre-news run up and instead long term shareholders get an extended chance to load the boat over several months.
2. The huge spike occurs after big news and not before so that the bad history of a huge sell off on news is not repeated. Instead the huge post news price spike draws more journalist eyeballs to our science news which NWBO amplifies through real PR efforts for the first time in almost a decade (assuming ‘don’t front run the FDA’ is not their mantra).
3. NWBO has news queued up to drop at good intervals with amplification to keep too much of spike from being given back.
A smart company management would do that. We’ll see how smart they are in the next few months.
This is almost right. MHRA does establish a visible minimum in that we are not going to apply to FDA until we get MHRA approval in the bag.
"Has anything actually changed for the worse since MHRA submission?"
All else being equal, the answer to that question gives you the answer to whether a shareholder would need to sell.
I suggest the answer is "No, nothing has changed for the worse since MHRA submission."
Still, as always we all have to do our own analysis and decide for ourselves.
We will likely have a permanent and large SP gain on MHRA approval and that makes NWBO a buy at this SP. In my opinion, we are not staying at less than 60 cents upon approval.
Every investor must to decide on their own but for me, if I am willing to let it all ride through that binary decision then I am willing to buy more (though not by taking on debt) at these fire sale prices.
I did not want or ask for this extended wait but if we must endure it and the continuing dilution at this price level, averaging down is at least a nice compensation especially since we’re finally on the clock over at MHRA with limited room for shenanigans.
That said “Don’t front run the MHRA” is likely to seamlessly transition to “Don’t front run the FDA.”
If that does happen, shareholders still likely make a handsome profit on shares bought down here but some of the wilder price projections will be out of the question.
Either way, 2024 is the year we finally get a permanent and positive SP change. Once these prices are gone, they will (finally) be gone.
Ultimately, ‘everything takes longer’ with NWBO and watching this debate has been amusing.
Those of us shareholders who are realistic can just continue to buy more NWBO in good confidence and average down.
We know that even if the SP gets no help from Bethesda and only say doubles or triples on MHRA approval, that puts a lot of us permanently in the green and creates a big profit on those new shares we bought while on the clock for approval. With the way things might drag out, by the time the price hits a very high point where we are willing to sell, the new shares might be taxable as long term gains too.
Not everyone has learned the hard way to stop expecting anything to be soon, let alone have the impact on the SP it should.
The discovery that there are magically newly discovered ‘sub-steps’ to the MHRA process including the potential for ‘off clock’ time is doubtless frustrating to those of us who insist on believing that at some point all that waiting up front should finally buy them a shorter wait on the back end. In a just world it would but if we lived in a just world there would be no GBM and NWBO would not need to exist.
Their frustration can’t be taken out on NWBO or MHRA (not good for their version of the investing thesis) so they take it out on those who point out that with NWBO there are no short cuts.
We will make good money as shareholders in NWBO in 2024 and large numbers of patients will start benefitting in 2025. It will not happen ‘soon’ though.
I remain a buyer as I was in 2023. Others can do what they like, as always. There really isn’t much to say until real news.
I tried to help enforce the bet from December 2023 as I said I would try to do, got pushback as I suspected in advance that I would and so I decided enough was enough and I stepped down.
I can’t speak for Dr. Bala.
Indications.
As I recall Direct was tried in the Phase 1 trial on multiple types of cancers and they were supposed to drill down a few for the Phase 2 trial but like many expectations we were given as investors that vanished into thin air. He could also be referring to UCLA working with Direct to get to 15 but maybe it was all in the Phase 1.
Who cares? The delay with L has sucked away all the available resources and Direct has stagnated.
Until L gets approved and our SP gets high enough to allow us to raise funds, it’s academic and anything he says about Direct is going to be discounted down to nothing.
Time is an aspect of keeping an expectation one gives out to shareholders (NWBO makes few promises at this point that are enforceable).
After long enough, time becomes nearly as important as the quality of what is (eventually) delivered.
If I tell the 70+ year olds and 80+ year olds here that NWBO will hit $50 a share suddenly but not for another 5 years, then the time factor makes the quality of the outcome far less impactful. Even the 50+ year olds 60+ year olds are losing prime years to enjoy the money.
That said NWBO shareholders can, after each delay, just decide to keep lowering their expectations in terms of the eventual payout and how long it will take to get there. While they don’t get voted free shares like management they can ante up more and lower their dollar cost average a bit, though being overweight in NWBO that is not risk-free as time is a factor.
Patients, well, patients don’t have that luxury, not the ones who need L and not the ones who need Direct though by the time Durect ever hits the market most of the patients in dire need will sadly not be concerned at all.
Hopefully 2023 is the last year we ever have to have this discussion but that’s up to NWBO and what kind of relationship they’ve built with regulators. Hopefully their slowness and silence (beyond what the law requires) earned many brownie points with FDA and MHRA they will finally cash in.
My issue is not so much with the Big Biz show per se but with the fact that this anemic effort represents practically the only visible attempt by NWBO at media and investor relations. Well that and the fact that since September 2020 a Les appearance on the Big Biz show has been a harbinger of less than great things to come.
If NWBO feels some weird loyalty to this venue and wants to go on there fine but they need to go a lot of other places if they are serious about getting traction.
Also when people hear that great things will be happening and you come around to the same place and say ‘great things will be happening’ and they don’t happen (as measured by the SP) you come around to the same place with the same SP folks tune it out and are in ‘Show me first and then I’ll take you seriously.’
Thus clear communication is crucial but so is execution.
It’s really emblematic of NWBO’s communication that we have to try and date a video of an NWBO executive like we did when another video was smuggled out of Tora Bora.
Still based upon the prior history here, the fact that he is appearing on the Big Biz show suggests that nothing great is happening ‘soon.’ Hopefully the pattern will be broken.
NWBO is a biotech company and not a lawsuit company and we were always going to live or die by DCVax-L and Direct technology and how execution and communication about that technology takes place.
So while this cannot be recast as a victory for the company neither is it a very meaningful defeat for shareholders.
Instead of just thinking it might be and hyping possible news go create a PACER login and find out. It’s easy enough to use and unless you are constantly searching for documents use is free.
Well you can start enforcing the bet you have in your signature line and I’ll help.
Have we confirmed whether Ex actually bet or not?
No which is why I said that would an uncharitable view. Still the fact that shareholders have to get an informant to get them information about what is really going on is pretty crazy, as is having to threaten other shareholders who criticize the governing regime.
I would be fine with the current leadership team changing their ways but after the events of Fall 2020 and again in Fall/Winter 2023 they are who they are and we have to hope that eventually the science story can finally overshadow everything else. It’s up to NWBO management to change their ways and the situation and not for us to say it’s okay.
While your point that nothing improved is true, there is no way we get new leadership so that’s not worth discussing. Even if we did, the new folks would probably screw existing shareholders over as they restructured and probably feel virtuous doing it as they had ‘saved’ the company and were entitled to do with NWBO as they pleased.
Only approvals by RAs or a BP making the current management team an offer so lucrative they can’t refuse will improve things.
It said this:
Journal Publication
published 02 May, 2023
Everyone has different experiences and I am not saying you are wrong. I can only speak to what I am familiar with dealing with them. It could be they handle different customers differently and I doubt I am their top priority. Variances like that could explain why 3 different NWBO shareholders report 3 different things about the same company.
You make a good general point though Schwab allows purchases of new NWBO shares to add to an existing position. I am not sure if they are letting folks start new positions because that could be a different matter.
I am aware that they charge for buying an OTC stock and that they impose basically a four or five business day lockup on newly added funds before you can buy NWBO with them.
My shares are in an account that does not use margin so cannot be lent out. Thus as soon as I bought them they had to be delivered in the same way they would have if I converted them to certificates. Now if you want to claim that a major brokerage is engaging in fraud and allowing shares to remain loaned out without my permission then I can’t help you.
As I said wrong, and I never gave an absurdly low number that for my share count.
I have tens of thousands of shares bought at over $11 at the highest down to 17 cents a share at the lowest and my position was accumulated over the last 10 years (longer than you have been invested).
If people want to do the certificate thing then they can do it.
I wish you nothing but the best and am praying for you to make a full recovery.
No you got it wrong but I think you knew that.
The harm is that when one takes one’s shares out of a brokerage selling them becomes more cumbersome, and cannot necessarily be done on a dime.
Illiquid investments are undesirable compared to liquid ones, all things being equal. Whether it’s a a big harm depends upon whether one ever needs to sell quickly (as nearly happened to prominent NWBO enthusiast some months ago).
True believers in the tech like myself might well stick through to BO or BK and if we decide to sell some after a huge and permanent rise it could be done in days or weeks without being an issue.
The problem is that we need NEW investors to get our SP out of the sewer system.
Convinving new investors that any shares they just bought or might buy might be counterfeit and that they had better make their NWBO investment illiquid just to ensure that they have real shares is an idea likely to scare folks off. If folks want to buy an investment that could be fake they’ll just stay in crypto so we want to avoid making them think NWBO is that kind of Wild West stuff when it’s not.
As a long term shareholder who has never sold I am the perfect shareholder for not caring about liquidity issues and transferring to certificates but most of shareholders and especially new ones are not in that category and if they get the idea they can’t safely stay with a broker they will likely stay away..
Maybe I’ll transfer some just to see the process but I think this is not something to scare everyone into.