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Hweb, IART is a medical equipment/devices company
I mean if you look at medical device companies ie Stryker, they all have PEs around 20+ going forward. IART has only a 10 PE, so half. Now it used to have a 20+ PE before the Boston factory shut down, but with the stock price hit so hard, investors are obviously concerned things may not come back the way they were. I read the earnings report, and I believe the company will open back operations in the summer/fall area. Yes, it may be not be till 2025 that the company will report a lot better revenue and eps numbers, but the demand for the devices made at that factory is still strong from what I've read. I think/hope the stock will come back a bit, as it gets closer to the Boston Factory coming on line again. I believe the report for the March qtr(in May) will be the start to some nice upside for the stock.
Hweb- ELTK
My entire sale on ELTK today averaged $11.15, so price was little affected. I may be back in yet, but skeptical for now. Good luck. Surprised you don't like IART, as they said their Boston Factory will be back on line this summer. They're forecasting around 16% eps growth in 2025 vs 2024, as the factory reopens. PE of 20 going forward is about right, so based on $3.60 eps, the stock could double from here.
Updated portfolio
GERN 70000 shares
IART 4300 shares
Cash $66
Buy IART @ $34.57
Buy 300 IART @ $34.57 = $10.371
I bought IART today @ $34.50 & added to GERN
IART has been cut in half, down to a 9 PE going forward. This is because their Boston Factory was shut down for s few quarters. However with the factory expected to go back online this summer, with every other medical supply company selling for a 20+ PE going forward, I am with SS on this one, that it has great come back potential. The company is forecasting around 15% growth in 2024 over 2023, with $3.60 eps expected. Tack on even a 15 PE, and that takes the stock to $54, a 55% upside. I'm hopeful the company will get their Boston Factory back online this summer, and that the stock will start moving up quickly. I believe around $70-$75 is the potential over the next year, so a 100%+ potential.
Needless to say that GERN could go up 50%+ on the drop of a dime, with any PR of a potential partner, or buyout rumor, or early FDA approval. After the glowing ADCOM meeting last week, with a 12-2 vote, I believe this one will be a nice winner from here.
Just sold all ELTK- here's why
The stock was just $23 a few months ago, now $11. There was a $10M offering at $16 only a month ago, stock now $11. There is an insider that has 3.5M shares left, who was selling like crazy last qtr in the $11s and $12s. This insider owns over half the company stock. I have decided after watching the stock action, that KIKs point of how negative it is for the one insider with so many shares left, to have been selling like crazy last qtr is a huge negative. I mean are we to think we know more than him ? In other words, something is amiss IMO. Also if you go back to the max chart on ELTK, it has spikes once in a while, but never holds for very long, before selling off strongly.
Updated portfolio
IART 4000 shares
GERN 70000 shares
Cash $10,437
Sell ELTK @ $11.13/Buy GERN @ $3.31/Buy IART @ $34.59
Sell 12000 ELTK @ $11.13 = $133,560
Buy 20000 GERN @ $3.31= $66,200
Buy 1650 IART @ $34.59 = $57,073
Cash $10,287 left after trade
Updated portfolio
GERN 50000 shares
ELTK 12000 shares
IART 2350 shares
cash $150
Sell GERN/Sell @ $3.,24 ELTK sell @ $11.15/Buy IART @ $34.50
Sell 14700 GERN @ $3.21 = $47,628
Sell 3000 ELTK @ $11.14 = $33,450
Buy 2350 IART @ $34.50 = $81075
Hweb- ELTK
Not to mention the overall market is due for a 10%+ pull back. That's why I like GERN so much- nothing but blue skies ahead IMO, with very little downside risk.
DRCT was total BS, just like I had assumed !
I knew either the numbers were BS, or it was a total fraud. Turns out, they make 58% from the buy side, but only 14% from the sell side, and sell side revenues represent the huge majority of revenues close to 80% ! Overall margins were around 22% for 2023. If the same holds true in 2024, then almost all of profits in 2024 will be eaten up by the higher operating expenses ! So maybe the company isn't a fraud after all, just that they can't make much of a profit with their crazy business, which I still don't understand fully. My new target is $3-$4
DRCT- here are my 2024 eps estimates based on revenue guidance
Total revenue guidance for 2024 was $170M-$190M, for an average of $180M. GP margins were 22.7% overall for 2023, with 58% coming from buy side revenues, and about 14% margins from the sell side. However sell side is the vast majority of revenues. If we use the overall 22.7% margins in 2023, and project to 2024 on $180M, we get gross profit of about $41M. However operating expenses were $31M for 2023, with the increase revenue in Q4 causing operating expenses to go to $9.3M. Since the pace of revenues going forwars is $45M/qtr vs $41M for Q4. I am assuming operating expenses will be at least $9.3M/qtr, or $37M for 2024.
So if we have gross profits at $41M, and operating expenses at $37M+ for 2024, that leaves at post around $4M in profits. With 15M fd shares, that would make them around $.27 in eps for 2024 !
AAOI action has been interesting
What it tells me is, investors have not given up on this one yet, despite the horrible Dec qtr, and March qtr guidance. So obviously they think things could turn around maybe in the March qtr guidance ? I am staying away, despite seeing the CEO purchase 31K shares about a week ago at $13. I would rather pay $20 in great guidance for the June qtr, than play here at $14.50
DRCT- I wrote this post about price after earnings
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=174075639&txt2find=drct
R59- GERN
I expect it to form a base around $3.25-$3.75, and then pop to over $5 on some news, be it FDA approval, a partner, or a buyout.
R59- GERN
Fair enough. My guess is that GERN goes to $6+ by the end of 2024.
ELTK, what will it take for this one to rally
I mean the stock has gone up around 10% from it's lows, but it went down 55% from it's highs ! This is what makes it so much tougher today than when I remember trading back in 2004-2007, and 2009 to 2017. I mean stocks wen't up when they were supposed to most of the time. Now you find a what appears to be a massively sold off gem, and it can't get out of it's own way !
R59- GERN, thanks
Appreciate your view. I personally believe that Imetelstat will do better than most think. Most importantly, GERNs Imetelstat treats ringed(25%) and un ringed(75%) sideroblasts cell types in low risk MDS equally effecitvely, where as Bristol Myers Reblozyl treats only ringed sideroblasts effectively. There is an article off Google that states this should be an egde for GERN. So maybe, even though Reblozyl has FDA first line status, GERN will definitely be recognized as a major alternative. I mean GERN and Bristol Myers will be sharing an approximate $5B+/year worldwide market by 2030. I don't see how GERN won't eventually get at least $1B/year of that, which would make the stock worth at least $10 IMO.
R59- GERN
Re, I did quite a bit of homework on finding out how often and why the FDA goes against the advisory committee. Turns out, around 20% of the time, the FDA goes against the advisory committee. However only 15% of the time when the committee is positive, ie was with GERN. Now of that 15%, the deciding factor was generally when the board was not in consensus, which was not the case with GERN 12 to 2 vote. So basically, if we narrow it down, the FDA gives approval around 95% of the time the Advisory Committee is consensus positive. So that leaves us with around 5% of the time, and that's generally when the FDA has serious safety concerns, which I must say they did with GERN.
I just wanted to ask you, do you think the FDA will find not to approve GERN. I mean the FDAs view was basically that the side effects of GERNs drug Imetelstat didn't overcome the benefits of the drug. However one doctor after another on the advisory board told the FDA that they think the drug benefits are much greater than the FDA gave credit for, and that the cytopenias side affects can be well managed and is often transient. Re, I was, and still am astounded at how negative the FDA was in it's opening remarks last Thursday. I mean they basically said they don't think GERNs drug works very well, and that the side effects don't overcome the very slight benefit.. Again, one doctor after another came out to disagree with the FDA, and point out that it's transfusion independence, and not disease modification that is they use to judge how much benefit the drug has- and they felt Imetelstat had tremendous benefit with the fact that 41% of the resondents had transfusion independence, with 75% of them having this for 51 weeks, and that hemoglobin levels were significantly higher as well. Re, after listening to the entire ADCOM presentation last Thursday, it sure seems that the FDA had it out for GERN, and again, I'm astounded at the disconnect between the advisory boards views and the FDAs.
R59- 95% cash
Well actually, now that I've almost doubled the 5% I left myself to play with last Sept, I have around 10% in equities. To answer your question though, it comes down to having made enough in the market over the years, with 4%-5% interest, that I can live off the interest. I mean I'd rather not say how much, but I have a big nut to crack. Thing is, I do play concentrated positions, and I tend to play too aggressively at times, and I just don't want to risk having so much in the market anymore, as Iike living off the interest- a lot !
Wadegarret portfolio- up 33% YTD/up 249% since Jan 22
DRCT from $35 to $25 in 3 sessions !
Why did they delay giving the numbers ? To me, that's negative. I mean at the very least, it shows a lack of planning. I mean to think the company is legit, and the directors are so sharp, they can do what no other company can in their space, yet they can't get their numbers out on time ? Personally I think the stock is $15 next week.
Valuemind- glad I could help
SMCI right now is expected to make $31 in eps for fiscal 2025. The share price is around $1000. The growth from fiscal 2004 to fiscal 2005 is expected to be about 37%, and the PE is about 35 going forward, so this would translate to a PEG ratio of 1 to 1. As growth slows, the PEG ratio generally gets higher. For example, with NVDA, when it was growing at 50%+ yoy, the PEG ratio got at low as .5, but is now 1.5. The reason for this is, eps growth expectations for fiscal 2026 have slowed to 20%, and the PE has gone from 50 to 30 going forward. My opinion is, the same will happen with SMCI. I mean analysts haven't gone out to fiscal 2026 on SMCI, but if growth is expected to slow from the 37% currently. then the stock has likely peaked, and will sell at a lower PE, and the same or higher PEG ratio.
Now, if SMCI can keep growing eps at 37%/year, then the stock could go significantly higher, assuming the PEG ratio stays at 1. However for growth to stay the same, assuming $31 in fiscal 2005, then would have to make $43 in fiscal 2006. If they can do that, then the stock could go to $1500, no problem. The issue I have is, if NVDA eps growth expectations have slowed so much, then will SMCIs come down as well ? So the question is, at what pace can SMCI keep growing, and will it out pace NVDAs growth ? I mean there will be saturation as some point, and there will be more competition. Also as you can see, when SMCI corrects, its violent ! I mean I've seen the stock fall 25%- 30% from top to bottom in one-two sessions, twice over the last couple months ! IMO SMCI and NVDA have both become more like a gamble than anything. Holding tech growth stocks like these two, with the assumption that AI will will keep these stocks going crazy for years, is a risky view. I think SMCI topped out at $1250, and NVDA at $990.
R59- SMCI, not easy to value IMO
I mean NVDA used to sell at a 50 PE going forward, and now around a 30 PE going forward. The main reason for this is that eps growth has slowed(about 20% going forward for fiscal 2026 vs 50% a year ago), and the PEG ratio is at 1.5 vs around..5 less than a year ago ! SMCI used to have a PE of 10 or less going forward, and now around 29. This is because growth going forward increased so much. However I can't get a good handle right now of SMCIs expected eps going forward into fiscal 2026 as NVDA gives numbers on. I would have to assume that if NVDA demand is slowing, so is SMCIs, but I could be wrong. Personally I think both NVDA and SMCI are risky plays right now, even though they've corrected 20% or so.
DRCT could be $17 or $50 on Friday !
I would love to short this one, but too much of a cult following for me.
RN- VNDA vs GERN
I took a quick look at VNDA. Market cap $214M vs GERN $1.6B. Then look at the chart. GERN just went back up to a year high, while VNDA has been doing nothing but tanking- almost 50% from a year ago. Then VNDA just got bad news from the FDA about how their latest supplimental NDA for Hetlioz can't be approved in their current form. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vanda-vnda-falls-fdas-crl-154700469.html
RN, how can you even compare these two companies. How much in revenues is expected to come in for VNDA, even if their insomnia drug is approved ? Do you realize there are other insomnia drugs out there ? GERN will have one of only two drugs in the entire world for a deadly anemia MDS(which turns into leukemia), and is expected to share a $4B+/year market with Bristol Myers drug Reblozyl by 2028. GERN by the way has around $400M in cash right now, and no debt.
DRCT down 20% from highs today !
Now I'd say this is the beginning of the end for DRCT, but who knows.
R59- Russell 2000 448 stocks
are forecasting a recession coming soon IMO.
GERN- pounding the table at $3.06 !
What a steal this stock is IMO. Even if you compare the present price with the average analysts at $5, it's cheap. Also, the stock was $3.75 last year at some point, way before the NDA, and the great news last Thursday from ADCOM(almost assuring FDA approval). I will admit, this stock is played with big time, but no way is it worth less than $5 at this point, and as I posted my target is $11 over the next year or so.
ELTK, I sent an Email to the company
My concern is that the non stop selling of the large insider is continuing, and that's why the stock price keeps falling. As KIK noted, his continued selling is a huge negative, and one has to wonder why the divergence between his actions and the positive comments from the company in the CC about business continuing to do well. I mean the stock price is down near 55% now from it recent $23 high ! Something is amiss IMO, but still hanging in there for now
DRCT- maybe it goes to $40 this week ?
At that point, the stock would be trading at a 50 PE going forward ! I wonder who's buying
ELTK remains an enigma
DRCT- a tempting short
PE of 45 going forward based on Yahoo Finance analyst opinions, for a questionably legit business ? I feel strongly that this one will fall like a house of cards at some point, but timing is difficult. Earnings coming out next thursday after the bell
GERN- I left out eps after tax, and assumption of more dilution
When I did my valuation analysis, I didn't include the tax effect. So if GERN made $1 in eps on $1B in revenues, they would only make .$.75-$.80 after tax. However in addition, if GERN goes it on their own, they will need another offering within 3-6 months. Assuming the fully diluted count goes up to 700M(at some point over the next 2 years), then there would be a dilutive effect of about 16%-17%. I'm figuring that by the time GERN does $1B/year, and they go it on their own, they would have at least 700M shares by then. So now we've got to take down eps by another 17% lets say, and that would bring eps to $.64 fully taxes and diluted. Now we should attach a decent PE, as GERN will likely be growing revenues like gang busters, so a PE of 15-20 is conservative IMO. Therefore going forward 2-3 years, assuming things go well, I would give a target of $9.60 to $12.80, or avg $11.20.
Now this number assumes only $1B, while GERN is projected $2B-$3B by 2030. Plus GERN is in phase 3 trials for the use of Imetelstat for Myelofibrosis, which not one company has a drug for when relapsed. So lots of potential, assuming FDA approval.
GERN- After huge news Thursday of ADCOM support, the stock
can be more easily valued. I mean, no doubt GERN will be burning through tons of cash, as without a partner, they will have to go it on their own, So what I feel is important at this point, is to see how much GERN would make if they do go it on their own. As I stated in the past, when it comes to any company with a product(in this case a drug) with huge potential, but that isn't making money yet, is to dig into what profit margins would be for their product. The biggest question of course is, how much in revenues is the potential.
In GERNs case, their drug Imetelstat has to be compared with other infusion drugs. When I was in the biotech Horizon Pharma, their infusion drug Tepezza had 82% margins. Lets assume that GERNs Imetelstat has 80% margins. My guess is. after looking at 10Q Income Statement, that GERN would make around $1 in eps, with the first $1B in revenues. Since their only competition, Bristol Myers drug Reblozyl is expected to do $2B/year by 2028, that GERN can in fact get to $1B/year revenues for their infusion drug, then what would the stock be worth. I would have to say, around $12-$15, but of course that would depend on growth. Horizon had around a 15-17 PE going forward, after they added Tepezza to their pipeline.
The bottom line with trying gauge future revenues and eps for any drug, is to get some sort of idea of what the stock could be worth, IF everything went great. Now since, nothing seems to go as planned, and costs are almost always higher than anticipated, I would give GERN a current price target of $7-$10, and say this is a one year price target, assuming FDA approval(which now has a 97% chance according to JAMA stats).
SS- ARQ, thanks
Appreciate your view
SS- ARQ
This one was recently on Seeking Alpha as a turnaround story. Just wondering if you could look at it, and tell me what you think. They just had their first really good qtr is a while, but they expect it to continue. Thanks
Portfolio performance- up 28% YTD/up 235% since Jan 2022
GERN was a big help
R59- DRCT & GCT
are both very likely scams IMO. A great example of how one can get caught up in chasing scam stocks is the infamous China stocks from 2009 to 2011. I'll never forget putting over half my portfolio in China stocks in 2011. I mean PEs were tiny, growth was spectacular. and balance sheets were healthy. Also, these stocks kept going up for years, so the thought for me was, how can I go wrong ? Well 2011 was the second worst year I ever had. It turned out that 2011 was the very year, a few respectable short sellers proved many China companies frauds, and I lost around 65% on my portfolio that year. So many were basically a desk and a chair- How could we know ! It took me almost two years to recoupe that loss.
Now while I realize DRCT and GCT are not as bad as the China stock frauds in 2011, they're still both scammy. I mean, while its very tempting to play stocks like these and stick with them while the momentum is strong, you never know when they'll be found out convincingly, but when they do & the bottom falls out, it's super ugly- like 50% in a day, and then another 50% over the next week, and before you know it, these stocks are down 90% from their recent highs. I truly feel that will eventually happen with DRCT and GCT. I don't understand what either company does exactly, and am more along the lines of firmly believing the likes of the short report back in December or January on DRCT.
While I realize I am a trader, and put a high % of my portfolio in certain stocks(which in itself is risky), I am nowhere near the level of gamblers that have stuck with stocks like DRCT and GCT. While I realize these people have made out like bandits, they are the same people that will likely lose everything eventually.