ZIV halted pending news....

https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/trader.aspx?id=TradeHalts

Looks oversold.. feels like fade it to $27

China has no choice...inflation must deflate bubble.

Two ways to reduce an asset bubble: 1) deflate the asset price...pop, falling to the price level or 2) inflate the price index...hiss, to support the asset price.

In China's case they need much higher price inflation to support the property bubble. China will allow there people to protect themselves by buying gold as the inflation increases.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-30/china-can-t-afford-to-let-its-housing-bubble-pop.html

...if they don't do this it's Tiananmen Square II.

China' Choice...Andy Xie.

http://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1425893/china-should-allow-its-high-risk-trust-products-fail

Inflationary depression if they continue to bailout, deflationary depression if they don't. Gold prices, as of date, are saying they will continue, and if they do the potential massive buying power of Chinese seeking to protect themselves from real declines buying gold will be epic!

Will they or won't they, the markets will tell us before the decision is made...such is the beauty of markets.

Paradox...QE is deflationary, ending it is inflationary.

Since Sept. 2012 with infinite QE announced by the Fed gold and miners have headed in one direction...down, until the announcement in mid-Dec. 2013 that QE will be tapering down.

Gold and miners have put up a nice move since then, so what gives? Why didn't QE produce the hyperinflation everyone expects and why will the absence of QE boost inflation around the world.

It all has to do with the USD and carry trades, as the QE dollars were exchanged...selling USD and driving down the USD while buying emerging market currencies driving them up keeping inflations in both developed and underdeveloped nations roughly equal.

That is changing however as QE winds down, reversing the USD carry trake.

Reversing the flow we have developed countries now with very low inflations as their currenices strengthen but emerging markets with rapidly increasing inflation rates as their curriencies weaken. The emerging markets are the canary and higher prices for their goods will push up the inflation rates eventually for developed countries. Gold prices will first be pushed higher by emerging markets... esp. China and then by developed.

Gold loves 'Misery'... index that is.

Gold just loves misery, higher inflation and higher unemployment caused by lower real economic growth.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1391196139.php

If you chart out trend line price inflation y/y % change since 1850 you'll find that the center of the trend line at 8% annual, with the peak extreme of 14% (war) and the trough extremes of 4%. Given that we are currently below trough extremes at 2%, summer could last for a very long time.

Fall 3/11-1/14. Winter 1/14-2/14. Summer 2/14-???

After a almost three year fall, the markets dipped there toe in economic winter for only a month (TVIX run). Finding it much to cold, deflationary depression they shifted quickly...with the aid of China, and the UK producing a summer market condition which will usher in a Stagflation or inflationary depression.

Get your wheelbarrow while there are still plenty in stock.

Andy Xie has been expecting this for sometime, my number say it's now happening.

TOE week ending 2/14/14...Gold's 3 yr. breakout.

GDX broke out for the first time in since 3/2011.

Giving .5 to <=> values and substituting WIP for LTPZ.

Spring values.
Growth: Abs. 72 + Rel. 12.5 = 84.5
Pi: Abs. 8 + Rel. 7.5 = 15.5
Total = 100 / 400 = 25%

Summer values:
Growth: Abs. 8 + Rel. 7.5 = 15.5
Pi: Abs. 8 + Rel. 7.5 = 15.5
Total = 31 / 400 = 7.75%
w/ GDX trigger on and WPS off intermediate.
w/ GDX trigger on and DUST hedge off short.

Fall values:
Growth: Abs. 72 + Rel. 12.5 = 84.5
Pi: Abs. 72 + Rel. 12.5 = 84.5
Total = 169 / 400 = 42.25%

Winter values:
Growth: Abs. 8 + Rel. 7.5 = 15.5
Pi: Abs. 72 + Rel. 12.5 = 84.5
Total = 100 / 400 = 25%

ZIV is an intermediate vol measure.

What this means is reduced vol vs. the vix or the daily fear index.

Ziv having a great two day run.

As risk on + contango work there magic.

ZIV => TVIX => ZIV =>TVIX.

Using my unique approach to timing vol markets I have my speculative share of money moving between the two. I'll tell you where I'm at and the directional movements of trends.

As the markets turn.

ZIV is my vol. measure of choice when the markets turn to risk on.
The last month has been a risk off environment but that may well change any day now.

http://www.velocityshares.com/index.html