MN Gopher, as we've discussed many times, the one thing I take comfort in with Iovance is the group of investors that have come together and own a significant portion of this company. Those same investors have a proven track record of making good decisions and ensuring the companies' management teams and key employees can serve the overall needs of those companies, and by extension ensure a good return on their investments.

My belief is they see and know far more than any of us here and yet they've continued to add to their stock positions.

We're in good company with this group of investors and the team at Iovance.

And again, thanks for the recommendation of the book "For Blood and Money" It's a good read and an inside look at one of Iovance's biggest investors - Wayne Rothbaum. More interesting to me is some of the inside looks at the actual scientists and financiers and that whole relationship in setting up some of these biopharm companies.

Badgerkid

Well said Badger, IBRX seems to be alot of
Background “noise” all over message boards filling it with lies & innuendo

Iovance is rock solid and all the major ITC’S opening, IE: Mayo Clinic, MD Anderson(multiple locations)
Duke U, ETC shows just how promising our treatment is for Melanoma & I suspect many other solid tumor applications on the horizon.

Ignore the noise & add shares on these crazy dips, in my opinion.

#CureCancer

Sunman, regarding the nonsense that surrounded the ticker IBRX, it seems a small handful of posters, or one with multiple aliases was running a pump and dump - not very effectively, but that's how it seemed. I don't know if it's a good or mediocre play, but I do know the comparisons that were being made by that small group of noise makers are blatant lies and misinformation. Many of the posters on that board have also grown tired of that incessant nonsense as it didn't help in having a true and detailed conversation about their investment in that company. I use message boards to encourage me to dig a little deeper when I hear something that raises a question or a point of value.

Agreed, it's only noise and nonsense, but I assume it did and does have an effect on some retail investors. Hey, it got me to look if only briefly, but that's what I require of myself to know that I'm doing my due diligence on IOVA.

I've done my due diligence and I have high confidence in my IOVA investment. Amtagvi has the potential to get Iovance into the black by the end of next year (a "blockbuster" therapy of sorts) because of the team at Iovance that's bringing it to market. I do not own any of that other company, but I can't say if it should or should not be considered.

Like I said before, an approved drug or therapy is only part of the equation, even if it has potential of blockbuster status, getting it to market and prescribed by the medical community is "a whole nother thing" (my idiom for today).

Good luck to the Iovance investors, it would seem we have a blockbuster therapy and a winning team running the company.

Yes I do have the time and while waiting, I do fill pot holes here and there. :)

People are getting confused about Anktiva approval and are drawing thoughtless comparisons to Amtagvi.
Lots of nonsense being discussed on Yahoo mb under IBRX ticker.

Post from yahoo;
Lifleucel costs 500 k and response is 31%. Anktiva in melanoma had 68% response , same with pancreatic cancer and solid tumors. Medicare will not pay for 500 k. It will say, keytruda failed? Then it’s chemo and radiation. End of story. Just real world facts.

Not an expert on biopharmaceutical companies by any means but this does look good for IOVA. Maybe they will be getting more attention.

I'm telling you GMH, the Iovance management team seems to have it together. It's one thing to have a workable therapy or successful drug, but there's far more to making it profitable and building the value of a company.

A very good combination indeed.

Another thank you has to go out to my friend who told me to check Iovance out after he had been watching it for several years. I was intrigued by TIL therapy, the approval was awesome, but it's the team at Iovance that has me hanging on to a core position of shares.

Best of luck to you GMH.

Just saw this.... this is why I do not jump in-and-out on biotechs. You never know when an "unexpected" catalyst will happen. Usually these are poster presentations so its good to see they got a spot for an oral presentation... guessing the data from cohort 1A is pretty good to warrant that.

Iovance will be presenting at the ASCO: "Oral Presentation of Updated Results of IOV-COM-202 Cohort 1A of Lifileucel plus Pembrolizumab in Advanced Frontline Melanoma"

https://ir.iovance.com/news-releases/news-release-details/iovance-biotherapeutics-present-clinical-and-translational-data

Retired early, it's definitely on the road, but there's still a few pot holes that need to be filled in.

I'm anticipating a very good call at the Q1, but I'm not certain how it will effect share price just yet since actual revenue won't show up until the Q2 report.
Since you retired early, I'm assuming you have some time.

Good luck to you.

Let's get this show on the road. :)

Updates on analysist ratings show this to still be a buy to a strong buy. Looks like the 2024 target is $26.00,

Your welcome Surkast

In my opinion, this is not the time to dump. iThe time was between $15-17. My guidance is to hold on to a core position and accumulate at levels under where we are today. You may always sell some now or wait until it’s above $15 when the time comes in a few months. Long term view in 1-2 years, IOVA gets bought out above $30-40 as sales trajectory confirms $1B trajectory and confirmatory trial is positive. I’m betting on this scenario to take hold. Of course if NSCLC trial is positive, the value improves further.
I believe in this technology and also believe as healthier patients become eligible the it desirable outcomes will only improve.

Thanks for the link.

There are 5 moderator spots open. I will be here.

https://www.cancernetwork.com/view/tumor-infiltrating-lymphocyte-therapy-advances-into-melanoma

Mabye this article will
Help you make an informed decision.

I am an Amateur Self Taught Investor & do not give financial advise who is all in with Iovance. It represents an opportunity in my opinion equivalent buying when Apple One IPhone Arrived.
The rest is history.

We are in our infancy & in the next 10 years, we will rewrite Cancer Treatment Therapies For Use In Humans To Help Cure Cancer & License our Technology to other BP of BioPharm.

As we MN Gophers like to say: Row The Boat

Just wanted to wish you well in your retirement & to encourage you to give it great thought & patience.

In my opinion, it will help fund your retirement one day….

Good Luck

GMH, The link article was enlightening to read exactly what we talk about here.

This is square one of a long marathon in TIL Therapy For Curing Cancer & who knows, mabye other diseases along the way.

This company is for me as an investor, finding the Pot of Gold for lack of a better analogy.

Thank you for sharing. Exceptional confirmation for all to read this must read link.

#CureCancer

GMH, Thanks for finding my error. Confusion on the end of 1st Qtr.
The numbers I posted are for the 2nd & 3rd Qtr’s.

I did post the high end of the spectrum, Im an eternal optimist with Iovance.

I follow the Science & The $ in something like Amtagvi. The top Biotech Investor in our lifetimes is in charge of Iovance & knows EXACTLY what it takes to execute the game plan in real time.

In my opinion, we are blessed beyond comprehension with Wayne leading the charge in helping to Cure Cancer & Find us a Triple Figure Buyout.

Wayne will not make any mistakes in our sale & valuation. He is The Best in the Business.

The Science is what 35-40 years old with Stephen A. Rosenberg being Ground Zero in his steadfast belief Solid Tumor Cancer Tumors could be Cured (Partial Cures too, my addition)

https://ccr.cancer.gov/staff-directory/steven-a-rosenberg

We have to me Apple One equivalent
The beginning of a life transforming Treatment that will be improved upon, Licensed to other BP or BioTech Companies to continue on humanities quest to Cure Cancer.

We will use genetic modifications to possibly improve upon our treatments.

This in theory translate to “Cure” many other Solid Tumor Applications, World Wide. We will in my opinion be FDA Approved one day for many, many solid tumor applications.

We will move to front line in my opinion soon on Melanoma combining Amtagvi with Keytruda.
Our stats show together in Phase 3 study, 66.7% in combo.
This alone crushes our 31.4 Amtagvi FDA accelerated approval for last line of D in use today, alone without Keytruda.

Think Merck: Keytruda Exclusivity ends in 2028. This is their Cash Cow.
Imagine Merck buying Iovance (in 2025/26 in my opinion) n extending Keytruda’s Exclusivity useage piggybacking with Amtagvi Treatments. Iovance with its approved 4 Yr exclusivity extension at the end of their 14 yr exclusivity tagteams them to 2042!

This company is now in say the equivalent
Of a 10 month old kid.

Its the beginning of a world wide expansion for TIL/Amtagvi in Clinical/ Hospital Use in their own ATC’S.

Wayne Rothbaum is a special Biotech investor man. He has long term relationships in Biotech & Buyouts well established prior to Iovance.

His expertise & relationships tell me one thing: Think Acerta & We Are Up Next.

Im adding as many shares at every dip I can.

#CureCancer

Surfkast, I understand your frustration especially given what you've shared with us on this board about your current point in your life. We each have to follow our own path. Good advice that I received from a very successful friend - there's 100's of reasons to sell a stock and only one reason to buy it. No one here can tell you what to do, but I do appreciate your willingness to be board monitor. Timing is not always our friend.

Do you think it would be advisable for one of us to take on the role of monitor? I do think we're going to start seeing a lot more posters on this site in the coming months.

All my best to you no matter what you decide.

Good luck to you throughout your retirement years.

Badgerkid

I may dump Monday.

Always be grateful for what we have as things can get a lot worse. Badgerkid has nicely explained my POV.
I started adding at 11.80 and will
add more as it keeps trending lower. Putin and Iran are in collaboration to stir up trouble in the world to divert attention away from Ukraine and interfere with US elections. They are driving oil prices up so you and I (the average American) get pissed off as our stocks sink lower and uncertainty looms. With inflation not cooling, interest rate cuts will not happen anytime soon. IOVA has only one way to buck the market downtrend. Deliver news about high adoption rate and positive progress with confirmatory phase 3 trial. Any good news with NSCLC study will be icing. I won’t be surprised if SP goes even lower to $10. Not worried though as I’m positive it will buck the trend soon enough and also overall markets likely to rally around September. Enjoying some sunshine and breathing fresh air out in the mountains. Shish kebabs, tszaziki and grilled vegetables for dinner with sips of Old Fashioned Kentucky Bourbon and tipsy cherrries. Stay positive and enjoy the journey no matter what comes at you. Best wishes and Warm Regards.

GMH, thanks for your updates this morning. Enjoyed the articles and the shared info.

Truly appreciate what you've provided to me and to this board.

Badgerkid

Neptune, I'm currently only using the free service to post on iHub, I'm not currently a paid subscriber so I can't respond to private messages except during the one hour free period on Fridays.

To answer your question, I got a tip last year to check out Iovance by a friend who had been paying attention to it for several years. He said it was time to give it a more serious look as they were close to a possible approval. I did some due diligence, took a small position in May of last year, went through a few ups and downs with the various issues and delays, sold a few shares on some ups and bought a few shares again. Then it dropped down into the $3's and I wondered what I had gotten myself into. After that, I did a lot more due diligence and realized the reasons to own this stock were valid and started to build a much bigger position but at prices around $7 or higher, not when it was down in the $3's (dang).

I've now built a nice core position which I will hang onto for what should prove to be a very good ride upwards over the coming months and years if the company continues to execute on its plan. I will try to stay flexible enough in case I see any concerns, but so far the only real issues that we seem to be currently facing are overall market conditions and negative sector sentiment at this time.

Amtagvi approval cemented my reasons to stay long and to further build my position, I continue to stay long because Iovance's management team has proven itself through each of the steps they've taken in being prepared for each contingency and how they hit the ground running with the Amtagvi approval.

Iovance's bigger shareholders are known to be very successful in their investments when they take large positions in companies and I expect Iovance will be one more success on their lists. I don't mind following the leaders, and the individual that shared this lead with me also has a proven track record.

Finally, I tend to get a little impatient, but the advice I've gotten from others who know this arena and have proven themselves, including several posters on this board, remind me that earnings are the driving force for the stock price at this time along with additional TIL therapy approvals and new foreign markets for Iovance's products. I expected a bigger jump on Amtagvi approval, but the market will reward us handsomely on IOVA when revenues start hitting the bottom line. IOVA is still trading at a higher price than the pre-approval price, even following the secondary offering, but the sector has not been our friend over this past month and there's been no news to add to the story.

When Q2, Q3, Q4 and 2025 guidance are available for viewing, we should gain continual price support. If the market doesn't get ahead of the actual numbers, it should be a nice ride. If the biotech sector sentiment makes a turn to the positive again, that should also help the upside during those quiet news periods.

I would like to hear your story if you're willing to share. What brought you over to this board? Invited or did you just stumble onto this motley crew? How long have you been invested in IOVA (assuming you are)?

Good luck to you.

Badgerkid

Another interesting article published yesterday. Should not that Angeles Clinic and Research Institute is currently NOT an ATC.

https://www.cancernetwork.com/view/tumor-infiltrating-lymphocyte-therapy-advances-into-melanoma

Another article from Oncologist at Cooper Health (NJ). They are both a P3 trial site and also recently approved ATC. Comments are interesting in that I was concerned about P3 cannibalizing Commercial patients, but as noted, eligibility requirements probably will limit that. This is unfortunate for patients and hopefully patients will become aware of TIL prior to ICI treatment in the future, but for now, at least there is an L2+ option.

https://www.roi-nj.com/2024/04/18/healthcare/til-then-cooper-doctor-is-excited-to-bring-novel-melanoma-treatment-to-south-jersey-region/

On the Corporate Update deck, they said approximately 50 ATCs 90 days after approval so that would be end of May. They are now at 37 as Duke Medical in NC was added late Friday (4/19). I think 50 will not be too difficult, especially if other Cancer Centers are asking to become ATCs.

I assume you intended to say Q2 and Q3. There will be minimal revenue in Q1 since TIL revenue is only recognized upon infusion which would occur at around day 34 post surgery which puts the first patient into Q2. There will probably be some revenue as ATCs stock IL-2 in preparation, but think that will be minimal... maybe $4-5M.

Your Q2 numbers are aligned with what I have at about 90-120 patient starts. Your Q3 numbers implies a total billings of 360-480 patients. That does seem high to me but would be 2.4-3.2 patients per ATC per month, so not impossible. IOVA indicated an annual total spend of $320M-$340M (which would include manufacturing costs) or $80M-85M per quarter, your numbers would make IOVA extremely profitable at Q3. I hope your numbers are correct, but just wanted to temper expectations a bit.

As an aside, the 12 analysts tracking IOVA do have them as break-even by 2026, which I think is very conservative. Break-even is the holy grail for any biotech as it means limited dilution risk. Break-even should occur at about 160-170 patients per quarter or a little over 1 patient start per ATC (assuming 50 ATCs) per month.

Welcome to the board, neptunesashimi.

Inducement grants awarded. Here's the cool part:

"... today announced that on April 18, 2024 (the “Date of Grant”), the Company approved the grant of inducement stock options covering an aggregate of 79,310 shares of Iovance’s common stock to thirty-seven new, non-executive employees..."

That's 37 new employees. Just saying.

https://ir.iovance.com/news-releases/news-release-details/iovance-biotherapeutics-reports-inducement-grants-under-17

Firmly believe in IOVA's fundamentals

Nice DD, GMH

Nice ddm GMH.

GMH, good analysis. To me it should land Q1 between 45 & 60 million.
Q2 between 180 mil & 240 million

Lets see how it plays out in 2024 to have a good idea where 2025 takes us.

GMH, thank you for sharing. I concur.

I do not think the company will give any guidance until the Corporate Update for 2025 (next Feb). I think they will only report out actual starts (thru end-April for Q1, end-July for Q2, etc) which does give some clarity for next quarters' revenue.

In regards to my estimate, since there is no new data, I have revised my starts to about 115 thru April 30. This is based on the following assumptions:
1) Linear ramp based on starts thru Feb (approximately 1.55 patient starts per ATC per month) for the 30 existing ATCs (assuming no adds from the 6 additional ATCs thru April)
2) Fred's comments upon approval and re-iteration during Cowen fireside that the 20 patients were "a tiny fraction of the bolus".
3) Build of of the iCTC for a capacity of 2,000 (165/month) plus a vendor back up because they did not want to end up in a situation similar to the CAR-T roll out where initial demand outstripped capacity.
4) ATCs investment in time and resources (200 hours for the lead physician + support staff training plus infrastructure) is a big commitment from the Cancer Centers so they would expect some demand before committing to becoming an ATC.

The Q2 analyst revenue projections are 5.2M (low), $28.6M (average) and $60.6M (high). This equates to about 10, 58 and 122 starts thru April. We are already way over the 10 thru Feb and only an additional 38 to get to the average. I am confident that we will blow away those 2 and should be closer to the top-end. I was playing that expected pop using some options, but this continued weakness may not hit those strikes even with a substantial beat.

This weakness continues to surprise me. I will probably add some additional lower strike options right before earnings if this weakness/lower level continues.

Surfkast, we're all down from the high. I wish you good luck and a nice run up soon, but this is still all about earnings going forward and the time it'll take to book those earnings IMO. The entire sector has not been our friend ever since we hit the high as did the sector funds. It's all down.

GMH, have you got any updates on your expectations for guidance regarding Q2, 3 and 4?

I think we're at 36 ATC's currently with the goal of 50 by end of May or June? Somewhere around there.

Thanks in advance.

Been retired and still up but down from the high big time here.

Right now I am pretty much all-in on the market (as I was during all of my working career). In retirement, I set up 3 years worth of expenses in a CD ladder (and can extend to 4 if I use my dividends). This will allow me to ride out most of the normal downturns. Political events are always short lived... remember Russia/Ukraine was only a 3 month market downturn and that probably has more ramifications that the Middle East.

Over the long term, a stocks fundamentals will come thru. It is just important to know why you own the stock and when that thesis no longer holds (i.e. price target met or facts change). Stock price at any given time is impacted by a lot of factors but over time, it is the stock fundamentals that matter. Buffet's voting machine vs weighing machine quote.

Surfkast, all markets are affected by uncertainty. People move to safety when things look scary, rational thought is affected by fear. The media will hype even the smallest of negative events, but imagine if the Middle East escalates. Oil goes up, many stock prices come down, fundamentals take a back seat for awhile.

Sunman knows that rebounds for the good companies will happen as certainty returns, but keeping dry powder allows us to pick up a few good companies on the cheap (or cheaper at least) during those times of uncertainty.

If you're of retirement age, there's nothing worse than a negative market sentiment when you want to sell down your positions. If you're younger, these are the times to build portfolios using sound fundamentals.

Good luck. Sunman knows of what he speaks, or so it has always seemed to me.

I don't see how a cancer cure is affected by something over there.

A bumpy ride ahead is more likely now for the next several months.
Save dry powder. It will come in very handy.
Sounds cryptic, but tje axis of evil is using the playbook to incite the Middle East and prolong uncertainty and anxiety.

I held and missed a very nice score. Still up and waiting.

Gopher shared a short article with me and asked that I share it here (some guy named Warren Buffett). I think the message is timely for some of us (definitely me) who get frustrated that the stock price isn't always in line with our fundamental thinking about any particular company that we find ourselves invested in. Thanks Gopher.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/warren-buffett-criticizes-stock-market-forecasters-make-fortune-tellers-look-good-labels-them-poison-to-be-kept-locked-up/ar-BB1lHZsX?ocid=msedgntp&pc=SMTS&cvid=a5158db669ed48ec80ca132d1902730c&ei=97

It might be a little sales pitchy, but there's some meat in there as well.

Good luck to the longs.

I would suggest not measuring yourself against perfection (buying at the low and selling at the high). It will drive you crazy. The only points that matter is when you buy and when you sell... ignore the lower lows and higher highs in between. If you made a good return from when you bought to when you sold, it was a good trade/investment.

need this to move back up. On paper I am down big time since the high.

Onward and upward. :)

We shall see. I am hoping this is turning back up. This is down like 40% from the recent high. Being retired for many years I am having 2nd thoughts about not selling around $15.

I think those are driven my big "buy/sell at close" orders that come mostly from mutual funds that had big redemption orders coming in that day. They need to raise funds so sell using "at the close" orders. I think these can also come from hedge funds that do day trading and want to close their position overnight.

Surfkast, I don't think it was a "dump". It looks more like an accumulation of smaller purchases that was delivered to a buyer at the end of the day and/or in the after-hours. Might be a fund accumulating again, it might be a short allowing the MM to accumulate during the day without chasing shares and then delivering after hours, it might just be a private customer with the same deal.

It certainly doesn't look like a single position being sold off or I would expect to see the price down even more than what we got today which was in line with the overall sector. Iovance seemed to actually hold up just a bit better than is typical on a down day like today.

The analysts' target prices are for Iovance over the next year, not the next week or even the next month. We've got to see earnings in the Q2, Q3, and maybe even in Q4 before we really see some upside (meaning something over $20) unless the overall sector turns positive again which will float all boats.

Iovance got a nice bump post approval but then got stuck with the overall sector which has been nothing but down since the high back on Feb 28th. Look at the charts and it becomes very obvious what's been happening. No news means no support when the market turns negative, but IOVA is still trading higher relative to the sector post-approval then it was pre-approval.

My explanation is somewhat lacking, but I hope I'm making the point that nothing seems unusual with that large block trading hands today.

The entire block of 1.6 million shares along with another 400K block traded at $11.89 in the after-hours which seems to fit with my explanation.

IMHO