Copper May Decline on Outlook for World Economy, Survey Shows

By Anna Stablum

July 10 (Bloomberg) -- Copper may decline on speculation that demand won’t rebound any time soon, a survey showed.

Fourteen of 18 analysts, investors and traders surveyed by Bloomberg, or 78 percent, said copper would fall next week. The remainder expected prices to rise. Copper for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange had slid 1.9 percent this week to $4,885.50 a metric ton as of 5:15 p.m. local time yesterday.

The Group of Eight leaders said this week that the economic recovery was too fragile for them to consider reversing efforts to pump money into the economy. The MSCI World Index of equities and the LME index of six industrial metals headed for a fourth consecutive weekly drop.

The weekly copper survey has forecast prices accurately in 23 of the past 45 weeks.

This week’s survey results: Bullish: 4, Bearish: 14

To contact the reporter on this story: Anna Stablum in London at astablum@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: July 9, 2009 19:01 EDT

Copper Rises, Heads for Longest Rally in a Year, on Equity Gain

By Millie Munshi

April 17 (Bloomberg) -- Copper rose, capping a fifth straight weekly gain and the longest rally in a year, as a rebound in equity markets revived prospects for economic growth and metal demand.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose as much as 1 percent, erasing an earlier decline. The gauge has climbed for three straight days and is up 1.7 percent this week. Copper is up 6.1 percent since April 9, the fifth straight week and the longest weekly rally since April last year, when the price was headed to a record.

Metals will continue to be driven by “the trend in U.S. equity markets,” which are an indicator of economic growth, Edward Meir, an analyst at MF Global Ltd. in Darien, Connecticut, said in a report.

Copper futures for July delivery rose 1.85 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $2.1975 a pound on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Comex division.

The metal will continue to increase as Chinese demand remains firm, said Michael Gross, a trader at OptionSellers.com in Tampa.

China has pledged 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) in spending to prop up the economy and is considering additional stimulus measures. The country will continue to buy copper as part of its stockpiling program, Gross said.

“The market seems to be fairly jubilant over the expectations for China,” Gross said. “I wouldn’t be surprised to see the uptrend continue in the longer term.”

Earlier, the metal lost as much as 1.9 percent on signs that the global economy remains sluggish, damping speculation that the worst of the recession was over.

‘Exceeded Expectations’

The copper price has jumped 56 percent in 2009 and this week touched $2.2415, the highest price for a most-active contract since Oct. 20.

“Copper has significantly exceeded expectations,” UBS AG analysts led by Daniel Brebner in London said yesterday in a report e-mailed today. “We believe that prices have likely overshot fair value given the extent to which global demand deteriorated.”

The metal will average $1.65 a pound this year, UBS forecasts. That’s 25 percent below today’s closing price.

On the London Metal Exchange, copper for delivery in three months gained $76, or 1.6 percent, to $4,805 a ton ($2.18 a pound). The price reached a record $8,940 on July 2.

To contact the reporter on this story: Millie Munshi in New York at mmunshi@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: April 17, 2009 14:13 EDT

Copper Extends Gains on Speculation of U.S. Factory Rebound

By Claudia Carpenter

April 2 (Bloomberg) -- Copper rose for a third day in London on expectations for a rebound in U.S. factory orders, fueling prospects of improved demand for industrial metals. Lead and aluminum also climbed.

Copper prices have increased 5.9 percent in three days on signs the world economy is stabilizing after recessions in the U.S., Japan and Germany curbed metals usage. Factory orders in the U.S. jumped 1.5 percent last month, the first increase since July, the Commerce Department will report today, according to the median forecast of 64 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

“There are signs of stability in the U.S. economy, which is encouraging,” said Eliane Tanner, an analyst at Credit Suisse Group in Zurich. “If the factory orders report is positive, it’s certainly positive for sentiment.”

Copper for delivery in three months jumped $80, or 2 percent, to $4,140 a metric ton at 12:48 p.m. on the London Metal Exchange. The contract earlier climbed to $4,167.75, the highest this week. The factory orders report is set for release at 3 p.m. London time.

Yesterday’s report of an increase in new manufacturing orders in the U.S. “suggests the U.S. industrial production cycle has bottomed,” Citigroup Inc. analyst David Thurtell in London said. “Metal consumption should pick up.”

The Institute for Supply Management’s gauge of new orders rose to 41.2 in March from 33.1 in February. Industrial metals prices as measured by the LME Index “can easily gain 20 percent over the next six months,” he said.

The LME Index is up 11 percent this year, paced by copper, lead and zinc.

Damage Done

“A significant recovery may be some time off but most of the worst damage has already been done,” said Tim Mercer, chief investment manager at Hong Kong-based hedge fund Musashi Capital Ltd. Mercer said he isn’t buying commodities but “looking again seriously for the first time in quite a while.”

Traders who had sold copper “short” betting on lower prices may buy the contracts back, helping to send the metal up to $4,300 a ton in the next few days, Credit Suisse’s Tanner said.

Prices of copper, used in home wiring and power cables and an indicator of global economic growth, have risen 35 percent this year, partly after China, the world’s largest buyer, purchased metal for stockpiles, according to Macquarie Group Ltd.

Fed Signal

“China is buying large amounts of copper,” Chilean Mining Minister Santiago Gonzalez said in an interview in Santiago yesterday. Chile is the largest producer of copper. Prices have reached the bottom and are making “systematic” gains, he said.

Interest rate cuts and securities purchases by the Federal Reserve signal that “growth in real consumer durable spending should bounce back soon,” Thurtell wrote in a report yesterday. “U.S. consumer sentiment has stabilized at low levels, also hinting that the worst of the spending downturn” has passed.

Inventories of copper climbed 5,200 tons to 506,975 tons, the LME said in a daily report today. They are still down 7.6 percent from a five-year high of 548,400 tons on Feb. 25.

“Inventories have stopped rising due to China’s buying,” Tanner of Credit Suisse said. “When China’s buying abates, we could see renewed increases in inventories and then prices would come under pressure. We are still quite bearish on the copper prices on the three- to four-month horizon.”

Aluminum Stockpiles

Aluminum for three-month delivery added $34, or 2.5 percent, to $1,419 a ton. Inventories dropped 775 tons to 3.47 million tons, according to the LME’s daily warehouse report. They have jumped 49 percent this year.

Nickel rose $350, or 3.5 percent, to $10,450 a ton and earlier traded at $10,540, the highest since Feb. 13. Usage of nickel to make stainless steel will rise 30 percent to 795,000 tons in 2010 this year, researcher Heinz H. Pariser Alloy Metals & Steel forecast at a British Stainless Steel Association meeting in Sheffield, England, today. Stainless steel accounts for about half of nickel demand.

Lead for three-month delivery jumped $45, or 3.7 percent, to $1,265 a ton. Inventories of the metal used in car batteries dropped 150 tons to 61,475 tons, the second consecutive daily decline.

Zinc added $28.50, or 2.2 percent, to $1,340.50 a ton and tin climbed $300, or 2.9 percent, to $10,750 a ton. Tin earlier rose to $10,790 a ton, the highest since March 12.

To contact the reporter on this story: Claudia Carpenter in London at ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: April 2, 2009 07:52 EDT

Deutsche Bank Raises 2009 Forecasts for Copper, Lead

By Glenys Sim

March 27 (Bloomberg) -- Deutsche Bank AG raised 2009 price targets for most base metals including copper on expectations the global economy will stabilize, while cutting calls for next year and 2011 on “a slower than previously expected recovery”.

Copper may average $3,288 a metric ton this year, 17 percent higher than an earlier forecast, the bank’s analysts led by Michael Lewis wrote today in a quarterly report. Still, the metal will average $4,189 a ton in 2010 and $5,071 in 2011, down 11 percent and 8.7 percent respectively from earlier predictions. Three-month copper has averaged $3,478 a ton this year in London.

Copper has risen about 43 percent since bottoming last December on investors’ expectations that demand may revive in the world’s biggest economies, including China. The rally has been aided by speculation China has been boosting stockpiles even as the U.S., Japan and Europe remain in recession.

Industrial-metals prices are establishing a “firmer footing,” driven by temporary factors such as Chinese strategic reserve buying and speculation demand in the Asian country is strengthening, Lewis wrote in the report.

China, the world’s biggest user of industrial metals, is showing signs of recovery, People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said yesterday. China’s internal consumption will pick up “sharply” in the second half, Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. Chief Executive Officer Andrew Forrest forecast today.

‘Supply Overhang’

Still, Deutsche Bank said it was worried the “increase in Chinese industrial activity during a year in which the country’s export destination economies are expected to report negative growth will lead to overcapacity and a supply overhang.”

Lewis and his team raised their forecast for nickel this year by 20 percent to $9,689 a ton. The forecast for next year was little changed at $9,921, and reduced 9.7 percent to $11,244 in 2010, according to the report.

The bank increased its prediction for zinc 5.3 percent to $1,155 a ton in 2009, while lowering estimates by 6.8 percent to $1,350 for 2010 and 9 percent to $1,786 for 2011. Lead may average 15 percent more than previously forecast at $1,070 a ton in 2009. The lead forecast for 2011 was unchanged at $1,168 and cut 10 percent to $1,124 for 2010.

To contact the reporter for this story: Glenys Sim in Singapore at gsim4@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: March 27, 2009 03:46 EDT

Copper Falls on Speculation About Chinese Imports; Lead Drops

By Anna Stablum

March 11 (Bloomberg) -- Copper fell on the London Metal Exchange on speculation Chinese imports of the metal will be too small to compensate for slumping demand elsewhere. Lead and zinc also dropped.

Expectations of Chinese purchases have helped copper to gain 20 percent on the LME in 2009. The country’s copper imports rose to a record in February as buyers took advantage of low prices to rebuild stockpiles, the Beijing-based customs office said today. Some investors were selling at current prices, Eugen Weinberg, an analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt, said by telephone.

“There is Chinese restocking supporting prices right now,” said Weinberg. Still, “the Chinese purchases will not be long- lasting,” he said.

Copper for delivery in three months fell $36, or 1 percent, to $3,684 a metric ton at 11:05 a.m. local time, rebounding from a drop of as much as 2 percent. The contract reached $3,785.25 a ton, the highest intraday price since Nov. 27, on March 6 on speculation China would add to state reserves.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if the market turns positive today on short-term positive signs of Chinese demand,” Weinberg said.

Inbound shipments advanced 42 percent from January to 329,311 tons, the customs office said. That’s the highest since at least 2003, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

No Respite

Demand for copper, used in the construction and power industries, has plunged because of the world economic slowdown. Investors expect no respite for now from the downturn, Barclays Capital said, citing a survey from a conference last week.

“While 37 percent expect a U-shaped recovery for the global economy, 34 percent expect very little pickup at all and believe an L-shape to be the most likely representation of global growth trends for the foreseeable future,” the bank said.

Investors remain positive about commodities over the so- called longer term, said Barclays. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities has lost 9.5 percent this year following 2008’s 36 percent plunge.

Copper inventories monitored by the LME shrank 2 percent to 501,875 tons today, falling for a 10th day in a row. Stockpiles are down about 8.5 percent since Feb. 25. Canceled warrants, representing metal scheduled to be removed from warehouses, were 40,825 tons.

“Copper remains the metal with the best fundamentals,” Andrew Keen, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein in London, wrote in a research report.

Three-month aluminum rose $26, or 2 percent, to $1,352 a ton. LME-monitored stockpiles of the lightweight metal, used in industries from packaging to aerospace, increased to a record 3.28 million tons and have more than tripled in a year.

Lead declined $6, or 0.5 percent, to $1,288 a ton, erasing a gain of as much as 0.9 percent to $1,305, the highest intraday price since Nov. 19. The metal, mainly used in vehicle batteries, has added 29 percent this year, the most among the six main metals traded on the LME.

Three-month tin fell 1.8 percent to $10,900 a ton. Zinc shed 1.2 percent to $1,250 a ton, and nickel dropped 0.7 percent to $9,870 a ton.

To contact the reporter on this story: Anna Stablum in London at astablum@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: March 11, 2009 07:09 EDT

Copper Rises in London on Speculation Chinese Imports Will Gain

By Anna Stablum

March 10 (Bloomberg) -- Copper rose in London on speculation China, the world’s largest consumer, imported more metal last month and after stockpiles in warehouses monitored by the London Metal Exchange shrank for a ninth consecutive day.

China will report preliminary import data tomorrow. Tonnage likely increased from the 232,701 metric tons imported in January, according to Nick Moore, an analyst at RBS Global and Banking & Markets in London. LME stockpiles have declined 6.6 percent since Feb. 25.

“We are seeing price stabilization in copper,” Moore said by phone. While global demand is still weak, prices are being supported by mining companies cutting output, he said.

Copper for delivery in three months rose $49, or 1.4 percent, to $3,660 a ton as of 10:30 a.m. in London. The contract reached $3,785.25 on March 6, the highest intraday price since Nov. 27.

In dollar terms, copper is having its second-best start to a year in the last decade. Prices have gained 19 percent, partly on speculation China will add to state reserves. Chinese copper imports fell 19 percent in January compared with December, because businesses were closed for the Lunar New Year Holiday.

Copper inventories monitored by the LME shrank 1.3 percent to 512,025 tons today. Canceled warrants, representing metal scheduled to be removed from warehouses, stand at 46,175 tons.

Three-month aluminum rose $1, or 0.1 percent, to $1,300 a ton. Stockpiles monitored by the LME rose to a record 3.28 million tons and have more than tripled in a year.

Truck Batteries

Lead was unchanged at $1,250 a ton. Prices have gained 25 percent this year, making lead, mainly used in car and truck batteries, the best performer among the six main metals traded on the LME.

Among other LME metals for three-month delivery, tin rose 0.5 percent to $11,000 a ton. Tin exports in February from Indonesia, the world’s biggest exporter of the metal, climbed 35 percent from the previous month, Trade Ministry data showed.

“Activity has picked up a bit now in the first quarter,” said Peter Kettle, research manager at tin industry group Itri Ltd. Output was curbed from October to January because of the monsoon, he said. Production from the world’s second-largest tin producer after China, was forecast to be between 80,000 to 90,000 tons this year, he said. That compares with about 88,000 tons last year.

Zinc rose 1.5 percent to $1,243 a ton, while nickel slid 0.6 percent to $9,622 a ton.

To contact the reporter on this story: Anna Stablum in London at astablum@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: March 10, 2009 07:11 EDT

$10-42 52 weeks range! $13 now!

wow, im really enjoying these prices!

New 52 week low

9.89 X 9.90

And this too shall pass.

$1.51 for copper now

Crazy>>$1.58>>http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/copper.html

MS cut PCU to underweight this morning

Deutsche must have been looking at my chart...

Deutsche Bank cut them to sell from hold this morning

15.58 X 15.60

Holding up well after Obama Election last night.

New short-term target is 15.82

ya ive been doing that lately too... the market kinda spooked me a bit. starting to accumulate positions. well see how it goes

Very good>>I only grabbed 4,000 shares>>Big mistake>>should of went heavy

OOOH i loaded the boat down there!!!

You had better tell me Gobso you grabbed PAL under $1!!!

NICE OM! hope all is well with ya!

Just closed out some of my $15 CALLS

hopefully some of you pulled the trigger on this one!

ya this is a great prce for this stock!

PCU raised to buy from sell by Citigroup today

getting close to a short-term trend reversal...not there yet however...

same logic applies here as well...#msg-33107633

Nobody knows when we will hit the buttom, but if I investigate this company then I notice that it is paying a nice dividend and it is making a lot of money. Ofcourse dividends can be cut, but still, I just bought some shares for the long run...

10.94 X 10.95 bid/ask. Today's Copper price: 1.76

Wow.

I want to jump in but with a recession continuing, I suppose it could still fall much further.

Goldman Sachs cut PCU to sell today>>Had it at neutral

Copper $2.06>>WOW>>How much lower can it go!

looks like the weekly charts are suggesting a test of 8ish...

PCU 11.70
2.22 for copper today.

Copper price under 2.65 today

I think prices will eventually recover, but I don't know when.

Copper price at the time of the downgrade>>($3.1715) http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/copper.html

PCU cut to underperform from neutral by MER

That's what I'm talkin about...

That is a good one french!

This stock reminds me of a ZZ Top Song, "She's Got Legs!"

Nice>>PCU>>>Kindness to all this week!

$20k in 2 days ! Yahoo ~~~~~~~~~ I love you PCU

Already in French>>Been accumulating CALL options on the dips..Thank you as always!

PCU on a short-term buy signal OM...

Thanks!

OT - on my ticker for months ..... down 3.77% today .... ('bout to blow .....)

AGT for you ...hehehe

Watch this little guy>>>UXG

OT - YES, I have been taking advantage of ALL GOLD ? SILVER STOCKS in the option market ..... Gold down 7 straight days..... below 790 now.....

most mineral rich plays LOW and perfect for taking advantage of now....a imo

Yield over 11% to boot!