$ GOLD is back in buy the dips mode here at 1,785/oz !

First time GLD has opened the week under the 50 weekly average since the plandemic bottom!

Dollar is rallying and just about everything else including precious metals and equities are dropping. Setting up for a volatile October lead-up to the election.

What type of October surprises are around the corner?

Next week is setting up to be a fun one. I don't think the market has ever seen that kind of volume on the Thursday and Friday leading into labor day.

I feel that if the USD does not reverse tomorrow on the daily and weekly chart; and than ultimately on the monthly going through September that the long-term damage that would be done on a breakdown will create generational damage to our economy.

Watch the USD index and watch commodities.

UVXY death cross today as the S&P 500 flirts with a new all-time high. Ironically, the golden cross in March marked the height of volatility. Are the summer doldrums about to come to an end, is market volatility on the verge if an imminent reversal?

USD index is smack dab in the middle of the consolidation range. Not sure if the next move is a continuation and we break down the double-bottom at 92.50sh or if this is a reversal and the next move will break the 94.00sh resistance...

Vix heating up again. Was watching the UXVY 22c that expire Friday more than tripled in the final few hours.

FA

I just got out of an inverse VIX position I put on before the VIX top at a small profit.I was nervous for a bit ( unlimited risk ) but thankfully I didn't put on a large position.

Toofuzzy

Today's price range on the SPY of 1.21 ties January 9th for the tightest range all of 2020 while the VIX which traded in a 75 cent range, the lowest since February 19th.

Something else I noticed on the Dow Jones Industrials, right after the death cross in March, they bottomed.

Now tomorrow they will golden cross with the 50 day moving over the 200 day; will this once again prove to be a lagging indicator but in the inverse?

It's almost like there is a "black swan" event out there that will imminently make itself known...

Also check out the VIX which is comfortably returning to a spot it may reverse from while at the same time refusing to fill the gap it left behind.

AAPL and MSFT continue to be a vacuum for cash, is this a repeat of the March 2000 tech bubble? I think the valuations are ridiculous but maybe someone can justify them, is it the lack of competition?

Still short FB and also short LVS (most overvalued casino play by far). Market running out of bullish news, stimulus, weakening the dollar, and President Trumps' threats of executive orders can only prop the market up for so long. Yields have only traded lower than today in 1 other session and that was March 9th. We know what happened right after that, everything got smashed, even precious metals!

Will gold futures close green for an unprecedented 14th session in a row today?

Short facebook and spy into the weekend at the close. Have a good weekend! Good luck! Hopefully the u.s. dollar doesn't completely collapse and perhaps it found a bottom this morning!

Tomorrow is going to be a nice fat gap up after aapl, fb, amzn, and googl reported.

Watching for the usd index to target around 92.37 before potentially reversing. As it stands right now, gold stock may have put in their local top Monday and if they are leading than a stock market top as well as the dollar finding a bottom may happen on or before Wednesday.

Watching TLT as it may dump tomorrow if more money comes in to fuel the tech bubble.

Plays this week... All SHORT (I'm very bearish right now)

RDFN, TSCO, ERI, FB, and FCX

I like WPM

Been selling as it goes up though.

Toofuzzy

I think most of the big tech stocks are in a bubble.

It's the Fed and to a lesser extent new investers.
Many more new investers in the market this year than usual and many or most put their money in one or two big tech stocks.

I lightened up on the metals late Thursday with the hope I can buy them back lower next week.

Enjoy you weekend and stay safe.

Bearish at the moment on MRO, RDFN, FB, and NEM

Yes surprisingly NEM, looks to me the U.S. dollar is going to have a rally, at least in the short-term, and potentially a strong sharp one considering it could turn into a short squeeze given the consensus on the dollar is down down down but that trade has gotten crowded.

I see $GOLD breaking south of 1800 as the dollar rally gains strength to close the week.

FB is severely fundamentally overvalued and the technical indicators are showing triple and in many cases quadruple bearish divergences.

Also continuing to watch AAPL, that's become arguably the most croweded trade to the long side, it's clearly in a bubble, but it has even surprised me, exceeding my top call by 2 days. Today's candlestick doesn't look promising, and exhaustion may have finally kicked in? Had some strong red candlesticks into the close.

Oil is in a glut (so is natural gas) as many producers began to turn back on the spickets in July. The inventory report came in as a significant gain of 5.65 million barrels when the consensus was a drawdown! The V-shaped recovery that was touted by Wall Street may turn into a W? Worse case scenario is right now we are the equivalent of Japan in December of 1989 and we'll see interest rates turn negative and this will become the lost generation for the stock market!

Good luck!

Yield on 10-year, U.S. Dollar Index, AAPL, and TLT are keys to the market it seems. AAPL surprisingly pumped higher again today, the yield on the 10-year rose as bonds weren't in favor and the U.S. dollar index took a beating which propped up the markets including oil. Which was projected to lose 2 million barrels from storage but instead gained it, crazy.

Thanks, nice to see you post again.

I lurked here for a few years and read every post every day.
Still use this board to check the silver and gold charts.

HGEN and CLWD are my favorites at the moment.
Have a few silver and gold stocks also.

AAPL - Topped out forever? I truly believe yesterday's high in AAPL will be a high that will not be seen for at least the next 16 months, if ever again... yeah I said it... I wanted to put that out there since I was super bullish on AAPL in many of my recent posts from 2013, and it went on a helluva run, now the largest stock trading on the U.S. markets, but I think its run is done, and I think the markets overall are now entering a bear market, maybe a bit of stagflation?

Hopefully what happened this week isn't going to turn into the equivalent of what happened to the Nikkei in Japan in December of 1989, they still have yet to come anywhere close to that level over 30 years later and have battled negative interest rates for a long long time!

Thanks, maybe I'll start posting again! I like MRO and RDFN short right now. Best of luck trading!

This was once an awesome board

I miss those days

TLSS at .07 still undervalued, easy 50% this week imo.

Silver stocks look good, AG my favorite.

LEARNVEST bought Out by Northwest Mutual

Options to watch and consider at tomorrow's open and to watch for the short-term; maximum expiration Oct 21.

Puts: APG, FB, QQQ, AMZN

Calls: FCX, SRPT, AUY, NEM

Anyone hear of these guys,sister in law signed up a few months ago & loves them! https://www.learnvest.com/

GLD and SLV - get ready, get set... go...

Nice pump and dump for hemp and cannabis stocks in the past 3 months.

ZNGA has been bullish on the heals of the online/tech rally and bubble that has taken place. But is there more here, such as the possibility of a "pokerstars" type platform for U.S. players coming where ZNGA would benefit. Thank you crony capitalism-style?

Speaking of poker. PTEK here at 1.05 could be a good speculative stock with decent fundamentals to tuck away. Even if its' to sell on the next spike, which could yield greater than 50%.

Wow, this place this believes in technical fairy tales. Unreal.

I believe I can fly. I believe I can reach the sky....

Transports in trouble? Someone tell me that chart doesn't look just like it did in the summer of 2011 before the big drop... just look at it !!!

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TRAN&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p18112218560

***HEMP/CANNABIS PLAY PUMP-ALERT***

All hemp-related penny-stock (speculative plays) went nuts on Friday (August 9th), there's a group behind all the stocks in the sector no doubt...

Some even don't normally get a lot of volume, but did Friday out of nowhere... I'll list all the ones I am following and what they did. Looks like a new pump in the works... just make sure you dump it at the top, cause the same speculators are going to do the same and then crash the stocks right back down once it's finished by shorting them!

MJNA was the leader the last time there was a massive run-up in these stocks at the beginning of the year.

FSPM +40.00%
MJNA +39.92%
GRNH +32.35%
HEMP +19.23%
TRTC +18.64%
XCHC +17.65%
MWIP +15.19%
PHOT +14.75%
ERBB +12.00%
CBIS +11.08%
MDBX +6.52%
SKTO +6.14%

Transports did it again... check out the outperformance to the downside -1.10%... also look at the bearish divergence on the technical indicators... the RSI and MACD...

thug mofo's, clear hit was put out by some or more than 1 3-letter organization of criminals. then they had the audacity to make rolling stone their mouthpiece for the boston bombing which several photos and video dumps online revealed who the real perpetrators were!

Dow Jones Transportation Index outperforming market to the downside today, chart looks a lot like it did back in July of 2011...

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TRAN&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p18112218560

from jesse:

--...for people who are engaged in actual critical thinking, surveillance is menacing.
...the reason privacy is so critical is because it’s only when we know we’re not being watched that we can engage in creativity, or dissent, or pushing the boundaries of what’s deemed acceptable. A society in which people feel like they’re always being watched is one that breeds conformity [anti-innovation], because people will avoid doing anything that can prompt judgment or condemnation.This is a crucial part of why a surveillance state is so damaging — it’s why all tyrannies know that watching people is the key to keeping them in line. Because only when you’re not being watched can you really be a free individual...--

harpers.org

***So is that it for the bull-market, Detroit bankruptcy, MSFT and GOOG earnings misses... or is this simply a reason to SHORT-SQUEEZE it more after a much-needed pullback... hmmm... only the money masters know... safest bets right now are GOLD and SILVER... watch them closely!

***WATCH SLV and CDE SILVER STOCKS***

They are the leaders in the industry, they took a breath of the 50 day MA today and then fell precipitously... one they find a bottom, I am sure they will take another shot at that 50 day moving average and that's when the institutions will turn from bearish to bullish as they are the leaders, then the smaller stocks like HL and MVG will follow suit...

***AAPL LOWEST VOLUME TODAY ALL YEAR!***

Just a fun fact, only 3 more full sessions to go before earnings are reported.

IBM, INTC, AXP, EBAY all report A/H today.

***Have to go back to Dec 24, 2012 half-session to find lower volume on the daily for AAPL...

$SILVER and $GOLD another buying opportunity setting up... today's declines mean an opportunity to enter long for traders and long-term buyers alike!

AAPL daytrading afternoon buy trigger at 430.51 tick...would generate volume, momentum and buying pressure imo...

Edit 1:34- It hit, great base on stock at 430, but lack of volume here...max pain on Friday OE still at 435 so path of least resistance is higher imo.

AAPL intraday looking bullish here after consolidation all session... just went green and confirmed breaking the downtrend that has been in place since amateur-hour high of 432.21... 430.30 (+.11)...but where is the volume, reports earnings in just 3 sessions away on Monday...

AAPL new intraday high in a red market... just ticked to it at 1:02 PM ET... it's showing strength which is a positive sign, but not enough, seems most of the market is stagnant until Bernanke talks tomorrow and Thursday...

AAPL weak close @ 427.44 (+0.93), even though it was green today, it closed near the low of the afternoon, albeit on weak daily volume, just over half the average it usually gets.

Today's high occurred at 10:39 AM ET at 431.46, right around the 61.8% Fibonacci if we use the 457.10 high from the end of May and the 388.87 low from the end of June, the 61.8% Fibonacci is at 431.03. Also the 50 day MA at 432.82 is just above.

At +0.22% for the day, AAPL basically matched the broader markets as the Nasdaq Index gained +0.21%, initially on the day it was outperforming but that faded with the volume the stock was getting into the close. On the daily charts, the uptrend is still intact. And from the low of 388.87, we have a potential cup and handle formation in play which would target 450+/share.

Max pain this week on options expiration is at 435. Time is eating away at the 440 call I like for a trade this week, and if the stock itself doesn't find a way to gain 2.94% the rest of the week, it's going to expire worthless as most options do. Given today's action, it looks like AAPL is going to need the help of the broader market, even though initially the stock was up 1% this morning when the market was flat giving hope that AAPL may finally be growing legs into earnings...

AAPL...potential double-bottom on 1-minute intraday during lunch, as it hit as low as 428.38 again... the volume is dead. The mornings' run from the initial low of 424.88 to as high as 431.46, and the pullback at lunch as low as 428.37 appears to be very orderly. The resistance is big though at that 431.46 mark as that is pretty much a major 61.8% Fibonacci retracement mark, and just above it also lies the 50 day MA. The volume right now is probably as dead as it has been all day. If we're using the same slow stochastic (10,10) on the 5-minute as was creating buy and sell signals on the 1-minute intraday then we're looking at a buy signal being confirmed by the candlestick here at 429.02.

***AAPL @ 428.37 @ 12:21 PM ET*** Am following the 1-minute chart and this looks like the reversal spot, let's see if I've got my mojo or not... posting this publicly to hold myself accountable!

Note the 440 call is currently at 0.92!

12:25 PM edit: If it turns out to be the lunch-time bottom before the afternoon push, then let it be known the 1 minute with the slow stochastic (10,10) proved to be reliable, let alone the price overshooting the bottom Bollinger band as well as a tiny volume surge to shake out the last bit of sell pressure. Well hopefully the last bit of sell pressure. Note price rebounded to 428.90 currently.

***AAPL JUL13 440 CALL @ 1.19***

All systems go, in @ 11 AM pivot!

Going to ride it until the wheels fall off while the billion dollar institutions print money out of thin air and buy the fukk out of this stock prior too, through, and then pump the bejeezus out of this stock post earnings. Watch how the mass media's opinion changes once their homies have all their positions set and AAPL soars past $500/share later this summer on iWatch and music service hype!

All imo.

10:54 AM ET ***AAPL @ 429*** [SHORT-SQUEEZE] -> AAPL 440 call that expires at the end of the week and closed at .81 on Friday, traded as low as .63 this morning and as high as 1.52; currently is at 1.08, literally a daytrade that one could've doubled up on during amateur-hour! Look for another entry point around here if you're running with the bulls!

Thing about it is that AAPL broke Friday's high this morning; it's in an uptrend, but it has encountered resistance at 431.46 which is around a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. I personally believe that institutions are accumulating the hell out of the stock and/or covering their shorts that worked so well during the past 3 quarters, a likely intelligent decision before earnings are reported on Monday. With Foxconn blowing out earnings last week and the media staying hush hush on any good news about Apple, I would say it's time to buy and I would expect a short squeeze to occur once the strength returns to the market which is currently flat on the session.

For apple to have been up 1% in a market that is literally flat speaks volumes. And for a good laugh, go read the yahoo finance message board for AAPL. Apparently there's a lot of interested parties in covering positions before the 50 day MA goes by the waist-side!

AAPL closed Friday @ 426.51... here's what the call options that expire at the end of the week closed at on Friday...

425 @ 5.45
430 @ 3.10
435 @ 1.66
440 @ 0.81
445 @ 0.41

Keep in mind that earnings are reported on Monday July 23rd...

Expect volatility this week in AAPL... I particularly like the return the 440 call could have if AAPL rides the back of market strength to a gain of at least 3.2% by Wednesday.

Found the direct link:

http://blogs.decisionpoint.com/chart_spotlight/2013/07/20130712cs.html

Thanks for sharing. You have to be a member to check it so I am hoping they're at least right about a big-time rally into earnings on the back of overall market strength. The way I see it is Apple is a value play with a P/E close to 10 and a dividend near 3%... Foxconn which does 60% of its' business with Apple recently beat analyst expectations pretty soundly.

Decisionpoint, Friday, July 12, 2013. Carl Swenlin: "Possible Bottom for Apple"

blogs.decisionpoint.com