Just sold my shares...it's not something that I follow closely so happy to take a decent gain at a 20 year high after holding for so long.

NAII

It's been a while since I posted last, but does anyone have any thoughts on NAII lately? It's been ripping and all is radio silent.

GENC is definitely an interesting stock in an area that I know a lot about. I just don't understand why they keep all of that cash!

I'm no chart expert like SSK, but GENC traded for less than it's cash back in 2015. I don't really see any strong support levels down to $6.

Ok...I guess they just haven't posted the press release on their website yet.

This has been on my watchlist forever because I used to own a good position in ASTE. It finally went below $13 so it set off an alert for me today.

Why would they not issue a press release for their earnings? They always have before, right?

I did check into United Rentals, but our local stores don't carry ladders tall enough. They did suggest checking with another local rental company (which Home Depot already told me definitely did not have a 16 ft ladder). I called them anyway, and they did in fact have the 16 footer.

Did having the ladder solve my problem? SHOOT NO!

I got all the way up there to change the code on the receiver and there was no receiver at the ceiling. The receiver is actually built into the fan motor (which I had to partially take apart to find out)! I was so ticked off, it wasn't even funny. My kids hated me that day! :) Now I'm exploring the idea of getting a new remote. The code is changed in the fan motor, but it's still not working...more than likely because I dropped the remote onto the hardwood floors.

I called Lowes...they don't have tool rental (at any Lowes).

Tried Next Door...no luck there either.

Hey guys,

It's been a while since I've been on here. We recently moved to Colorado and into a new house. This house has a two story family room (19 feet high) which is really cool to look at...but it's a pain if I need to do easy things like change a light bulb or change the code on a fan remote receiver (because I need to do both right now.

The ceiling height is 19 feet high. I've already called Home Depot and the tallest ladder they have is 14 feet (with an 18 foot reach). Anyone have any ideas of a place where I can rent a ladder with a 20 foot reach (or some other idea)?

DeBeers was taken private like 20 years ago.

Big day today for DKS. Sold my full position.

I'm applying Thomsons Waterseal wood protector to a lot of wood (I'm guessing 10,000 SF). See post 12551.

So I need to use a paint sprayer? I can't just use a pump sprayer like this...

https://www.homedepot.com/p/HDX-2-Gal-Sprayer-1502HDX/207202422?cm_mmc=Shopping%7cBT3%7cG%7c0%7cG-PLA-BT3-HDX-D28I-InsideGarden%7c&gclid=CjwKCAiAjuPRBRBxEiwAeQ2QPmZUb20e9K3UU3BlQaX1ve2bdvaLQ6e9aBWDXCmt3UkfA899Rie5aRoChWcQAvD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds&dclid=CLPzy53emNgCFZdANwodEjMJOQ

Sprayer for Thomson Waterseal?

Anyone have a suggestion for a sprayer at HD for applying Thomsons WaterSeal? The last time I tried to use a sprayer, the Waterseal just dripped out instead of spraying. The whole point of using a sprayer to apply it is to save time, but I ended up having to brush on the Thomsons after I dripped it onto the wood.

I'm replacing th3 glass in the old frame. I actually am going to have to do it on two more pieces of glass too. I only noticed that one if the doors were foggy but it's actually both. In addition to those I have a big triangular piec3 of glass that is messed up too. It's like $600 for the one...ill probably end up paying near $2,000, but it's still way cheaper than replacing the whole unit. I get a 10 year warranty on the glass too.

FCX...well I shoulda kept my mouth shut! The stock is up like 20% in less than two weeks.

SSK, do you have any thoughts on the chart? I know it's overbought, but can this go all the way to $20? I looking to maximize my gains here.

Haha...that's for sure!

NGD (another new top 10 position for me):

I just bought this yesterday at $3.08.

Here is why I like NGD:

1) NGD is probably the lowest cost gold producer in the world. NGD has two of the best assets in the world at New Afton and Rainy River. New Afton has negative cash costs due to the huge amount of copper produced at the mine. Rainy River is a high grade mine and is just starting to ramp up.

2) As mentioned Rainy River is just ramping up, but the thing has been a mess. They ran into a few issues at the mine that resulted in a cost overrun and a delay in start up. As a result they had to raise some equity and the stock tanked (but didn't break new lows).

3) NGD has a huge deposit at Blackwater that the company's stock is getting no credit for. Blackwater has 8.2 MM oz of gold reserves in British Colombia.

4) Now that Rainy River is complete, NGD is going to be a free cash flow machine! NGD should generate nearly $500 MM in EBITDA in 2018 which means it is trading at ~5x EBITDA on spot prices. If gold prices went to something like $1500, then NGD is trading at like 3x EBITDA. With projects virtually done, I think NGD could generate ~$300 MM in FCF in 2018 and 2019 (18% FCF yield).

5) I think NGD is a prime takeover candidate. Balance sheets in the gold space have significantly improved over the last few years as many of the majors have sold assets and cut (some) costs. I think this opens the door for someone like Newmont to buy New Gold (even their names are made for each other!).

6) The stock has been getting crushed and is going to find some support soon (IMO). The RSI is at 34 and is now only about 10%-15% off of the bottom from earlier this year. If it got close to $2.70, I'd buy more.

PAAS (a new top 10 position for me):

As I mentioned earlier this week, I bought some Pan American Silver at $14.82 (nelson beat me with a slightly better price). The silver stocks (as well as the silver price) have been hit pretty had over the last several weeks and are now below $16/oz. I'm basing my valuation of silver stocks on $20 silver.

Here is why I like PAAS:

1) PAAS has a very strong balance sheet - Net cash of $70 MM, ST Investments of $50 MM and Investments in other companies at $55 MM. All of this adds up to $1.14/share in net cash on the balance sheet.

2) PAAS has been spending over the last two years on expansions at its La Colorada and Dolores mines. These two mines are the biggest drivers of earnings and cash flow for the company and those investments are now coming to an end. Even at spot silver prices, PAAS should generate significant FCF.

3) PAAS is decent producer of zinc (which I'm a big bull on). PAAS should produce about 55 million tons of zinc this year, and I believe that zinc prices could move even higher in 2018-2019.

4) Most of the value of the company is focused on Mexico and Peru...two stable mining jurisdictions. They do have a mine in Bolivia and one in Argentina and a project in Argentina, but these have very little value right now (near the end of their mine life).

5) As a result of the strong cash flow that I expect a small improvement in silver prices, I believe that PAAS is worth ~$21.

Note: I'm not a gold or silver bug...and actually hate investing in precious metals stocks. They are beaten up though, so I can't ignore that fact.

I only posted that because it was the first one that popped up on google. Here is a WSJ article from earlier this year...

When to Sell? Look at the HQ
If a company moves to lavish headquarters, it’s often time for investors to get out.
By Andy Kessler
April 9, 2017 4:08 p.m. ET

Rising above the San Francisco skyline, a few short blocks from where Mel Brooks filmed the Hitchcock “Vertigo” spoof “High Anxiety,” is the 1.6-million-square-foot Salesforce Tower, soon to be the company’s new headquarters and the second-tallest building west of the Mississippi. As the stock market reaches dizzying heights, my thoughts turn to the toughest decision for investors: when to sell a stock.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/when-to-sell-look-at-the-hq-1491768486

Other examples...

http://www.nysun.com/editorials/headquarters-curse/73701/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/steveblank/2013/08/01/the-curse-of-a-new-building/#43f349bc61b9

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2013/02/26/headquarters-curse.html

I thought the HQ curse was pretty well known...I've heard people talk about it all the time. Obviously, it doesn't mean that every company that moves into a new HQ is going to see its stock tank, but there is some pretty strong history there that management teams get distracted and that they focus too much on building a grand HQ instead of focusing on the business.

Curse Of The New HQ

Jay Yarow

Nov. 10, 2009, 7:15 AM

If you hear a CEO say it's time to build a new headquarters, watch out.

There's a long and inglorious history of companies building new homes for themselves, only to have their businesses collapse a few years later.

Or in the case of some poor souls, a few months.

http://www.businessinsider.com/poorly-timed-headquarters-2009-11

New HQ = good time to short...just my opinion.

I don't post on the board enough to make this call, but Wade, don't you think there might be other boards that might be appropriate for you? I personally get extremely tired of your whining...I get the impression that people like KiK and SSK do too.

Why don't you find or start a day trading board?

Copper prices (putting my technician's hat on right now)...

Yesterday was a big deal (the worst day for copper prices in 3 years - Down 4.5%). It broke through support at $3.03 and now the chart looks weak in the near term. I think we could probably see something around $2.82-$2.87 in the near term as copper prices retreat back near the 200 day MA.

I've heard that yesterday's move was driven by stop loss orders, an increase in copper inventories and some concerns on China. Overall, the longer-term chart looks good. I've always thought that copper was a 2H17 story (as in, the best time to buy copper stocks on a risk-adjusted basis). The copper market should run deficits in 2018-2019 as there simply is not enough supply coming online to meet demand. I don't believe that we've seen the highs for copper prices (commodity cycles down last for only 6 months), and I would expect that copper prices average >$3 in 2018 (vs. $2.64 through the first 9 months of 2017).

Copper prices - I assume it was a typo, but copper prices are $2.96/lb

I'll take a stab here since this is my area...

FCX is uninvestable right now IMO (even though I own a tiny bit in my commodities account...haha). Grasberg, their behemoth mine in Indonesia is a disaster. They are trying to work out an agreement with the Indo government on how to get some money out of the deal (the government is basically seizing the asset), but until something happens with that, I don't like FCX. When it is resolved, the stock could go up/down big in a single day, but there is no way to know it will turn out. My guess is the drop in earnings in 2019 is a result of analysts taking Grasberg out of their valuation (it's the biggest driver of earnings for FCX).

As R59 mentioned, I like CMMC.to the best of the copper producers. They are low cost, generating good free cash flow and using the cash to pay down debt. They also just acquired an asset (the jury is still out on whether that's good or bad). I'm up about 200% on my CMMC. I tried trimming it the day I froze it the PSL contest, but I couldn't sell my shares at the close. It's down 25% since then :(

Other miners that I really like are TV.to (zinc mining play) and PAAS (silver tax loss candidate that Nelson also recently talked about). Finally, I love uranium (CCJ is the big one here). Uranium prices are going up in my opinion...a lot.

Nelson, I'm with you on the miners. I've done pretty well on the base metals guys this year, but the precious metals stocks are sitting near lows (for many of them). I like silver as well. I just bought PAAS today at 14.82 and am looking to add more exposure. I think PAAS can go to $22 or so (probably not just from the tax loss rebound though). This is a 6-12 month hold for me where I'm getting it at a good price.

Uranium production cuts are getting bigger and the stocks keep going higher. The cuts by the Kazakhs will last for 3 years so it's really big news, and even bigger than the Cameco cut announced a few weeks ago.

http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/UF-Kazakhstan-to-cut-uranium-production-0412177.html

NAC KazAtomProm will reduce planned uranium production by 20% to better align output with demand, the company announced today. The cuts will be enacted for a period of three years beginning in January 2018, it added.

The 20% cuts, under Subsoil Use Contracts of Company enterprises, will result in deferral of the production of 11,000 tU over the period. The estimated cut of 4000 tU in 2018 alone represents about 7.5% of global uranium production for 2018, as forecast by UxC, KazAtomProm said.
The company said it has informed all its major customers of its decision, and confirmed that future contractual delivery obligations will not be affected.

"Given the challenging market conditions, and in light of continued oversupply in the uranium market, we have taken the strategic decision to reduce production in order to better align our production levels with market demand," KazAtomProm chairman Galymzhan Pirmatov said. "We believe that these measures strongly underline our commitment to ensuring the long-term sustainability of uranium mining; a critical component in the generation of clean, carbon free electricity around the globe."

Kazakhstan has 12% of the world's uranium resources and has been the world's leading uranium producer since 2009. Its 2015 production of 24,560 tU accounted for 39% of world production. The country had planned to increase its production year on year to 2018, but in January KazAtomProm announced that it would to produce 10% less uranium in 2017 than previously planned in response to ongoing oversupply in the uranium market. Minister of Energy Kanat Bozumbayev recently said the country's 2017 uranium production is forecast to be 22,150 tU.

CCJ up 13% today!

Uranium production cuts are getting bigger and the stocks keep going higher. The cuts will last for 3 years so it's really big news, and even bigger than the Cameco cut announced a few weeks ago.

http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/UF-Kazakhstan-to-cut-uranium-production-0412177.html

NAC KazAtomProm will reduce planned uranium production by 20% to better align output with demand, the company announced today. The cuts will be enacted for a period of three years beginning in January 2018, it added.

The 20% cuts, under Subsoil Use Contracts of Company enterprises, will result in deferral of the production of 11,000 tU over the period. The estimated cut of 4000 tU in 2018 alone represents about 7.5% of global uranium production for 2018, as forecast by UxC, KazAtomProm said.
The company said it has informed all its major customers of its decision, and confirmed that future contractual delivery obligations will not be affected.

"Given the challenging market conditions, and in light of continued oversupply in the uranium market, we have taken the strategic decision to reduce production in order to better align our production levels with market demand," KazAtomProm chairman Galymzhan Pirmatov said. "We believe that these measures strongly underline our commitment to ensuring the long-term sustainability of uranium mining; a critical component in the generation of clean, carbon free electricity around the globe."

Kazakhstan has 12% of the world's uranium resources and has been the world's leading uranium producer since 2009. Its 2015 production of 24,560 tU accounted for 39% of world production. The country had planned to increase its production year on year to 2018, but in January KazAtomProm announced that it would to produce 10% less uranium in 2017 than previously planned in response to ongoing oversupply in the uranium market. Minister of Energy Kanat Bozumbayev recently said the country's 2017 uranium production is forecast to be 22,150 tU.

Johnson Rice is a energy focused investment bank/research firm. They are very well respected. My old boss believed they were the top 3 firms that covered energy.

Everything ripping today...any idea why? Cameco is up 17%!

I increased my position in NSU by ~2.5x today at $2.25. Here's why:

1) The stock is back near the lows in May and I think it will find some support here.
2) Everything I see about Timok keeps getting better and better. This thing is one of the premier projects in the world, if not the best copper project in the world.
3) The copper circuit at Bisha has improved, but they have decided to shorten the life of the mine because it'll take significant investment to extend it as long as they previously expected. Now that this news is out of the way, it removes an overhang on the stock.

Sears reported earnings today and is up a ton (27% premarket). That should result in another good day for retailers.

Don't have anything about research59 in the name...clearly people that are buying this stuff have done no research.

CMG

Anybody here ever looked at Chipotle? The stock is down from $750 18 months ago to ~$300 today. They announced the CEO and founder is stepping down. No opinion at this point, just wondering. The market cap is obviously pretty big for this board, but just thought I'd ask.

My DKS is up 3.8% today too. Definitely a good day for retailers.

Uranium bouncing now. Up $1.85 to 23.50 now on NYMEX.

I'm not sure I read that the same way as you do. It looks to me that the 22,000 is merely rounding and the 22,150 is the exact number for 2017 (not 2018), just like the 24,000 is rounding down (for some reason) the actual production of 24,600 in 2016.

That logic also results in a.10% decline in production that Kazatomprom has been forecasting for thus year.

Thanks for the NYMEX suggestion. I typically only check UXC and Trade Tech for spot prices (only released weekly).

I haven't been able to find anything about Kazatomprom on WNN though. If you area able to find a link, please let me know.

Do you have a link for updated prices and for the Kazatomprom news? I follow the industry pretty closely, and I haven't seen news of either.