TheChartologist

[redwards]

So far the monetary stimulus was timid ala' TARP, The FED will now use probably 3x the Quantatative monetary stimulus 2 to 3 trillion more in money supply by increasing its balance sheet assets and pushing cash flow into the system.

On top of that, the Fiscal stimulus of 1 Trillion from the Obama quartet and you may get a spike in the indices of unexpected proportions over the next 4 to 6 weeks.

Monetary and Fiscal stimulus at the same time. fwiw.

[LG]

MTFA (Multiple Time Frame Analysis)

I am both humbled and amused at how the methodology I originated in the eighties and later introduced via the internet over ten years ago in 1998 on Silicon Investor and later on Investors Hub in 2002 has spread although in various adaptations, incarnations and mutations...gg

Those of you that have been following my work for many years have long seen references to my methodology as MTFA or Multiple Time Frame Analysis.

Of course to see how it has spread, all one needs to do is read just about any investment analysis board. Just a few years ago I Googled "Multiple Time Frame Analysis" and the only hits that came up were either message board posts by (yours truly) or pages from my prior website.

Now look...

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&rls=com.microsoft%3Aen-us&q=%22multiple+time+frame+analysis%22&btnG=Search

Regards,
LG

[gtober]

We are seeing a classic backtest of a resistance line. If you're a bear, you need to see this resistance line (now a support line) fail. If you're a bull you should watch the price action above the line and see if we get a separation. The pattern itself looks pretty bullish at this point.

It's striking how nicely formed this pattern is. Don't see it very often.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p44556070875&a=6498766&listNum=1&listNum=1

[LG]

I love it when a plan comes together...gg

http://messageboard.thechartologist.com/tool/post/lg/show_single_post?pid=30491608

LG

[LG]

snootmagruder: I posted this earlier in the day...

http://messageboard.thechartologist.com/tool/post/lg/vpost?id=3159887

LG

[snootmagruder]

Hi Lg, Do you have a take or better yet a chart for todays action? TIA

Snoot

[LG]

rich ruscio: Overbought is not worked off, yet...IMO. Given how quick price moves as of late, I am reluctant to venture a guess as to how long that will take. Could take a few days to a week or two or a day or three which has been normal as of late...gg

What I am really trying to determine is whether today's high was the high for this up move...or not!

My TradeStation SPY (S&P Deposit Reciepts) 120 Minute All Sessions Semi-log Chart
Let's see how this rising wedge plays out. Similar wedge on the ES 24 hour charts...



Regards,
LG

[rich ruscio]

OT1: One of the most interesting years of my life, I flew from here to Austin 40 times. The Corporate Jet was better than commercial, because while the Delta Club in Cincinnati was open bar, the Jet Maker's Mark decanter was always full. At least, when I got on.

OT2: BCS is a lot like TA - just numbers. Hook 'em Horns. Go Texas.

On Topic at last: I'd prefer a close over 916.88 too, but would prefer one much, much higher. One week at a time, I guess.

Best,

rr

[RCKS]

Has to be warmer, its Texas.
A lot of steam rising over Texas with the BCS hulabaloo, how in ..... do you lose out in a poll to a team you have beaten head to head, when you both have the same record?

Not trying to start any big pissin' match, just stating the facts, being an outsider.

market doesn't look done. Almost worked off enough of the overbought to go higher. I would love a close above 916.88 on the spx.

[rich ruscio]

OT: I love dogs.

On topic: That overbought condition is working itself off. Do you have a time/price opinion of how long that needs to take?

Merry Christmas, and I hope it's warmer where you are than here,

rr

[LG]

mad: **OT** That would be a heart warming story were it not for the irresponsibility of the babysitter...

LG

[dec212012]

agree, turn date window is open...and thought i'd pass this along chief....vbg

Puppies Credited With Keeping Lost Toddler Warm Overnight in Woods
Monday, December 08, 2008


Jaylynn Thorpe
A 3-year-old Virginia boy was rescued Saturday after spending the night in the woods with only his puppies to keep him warm.

Jaylynn Thorpe, 3, of Halifax County, Va., was found at around 1 p.m. Saturday about a half-mile from where he disappeared on Friday afternoon after wandering away from his baby sitter's house, FOX affiliate WRAL-TV reported.

They found him standing; he was wet, but the dogs were with him," Jaylynn's mother, Sarah Ingram, told FOX News on Monday. "I was told that the dogs slept with him. They could tell where they slept in the woods."

Ingram said her son slept sandwiched between the two 12-week-old puppies, which officials say helped keep him warm through the 21-hour ordeal.

Jaylynn wandered away late Friday afternoon from his baby sitter, who is Ingram's niece.

"The dogs went with him," Ingram said. "He told me he left that yard going hunting and fishing."

Around 300 people helped search for the missing child, and a command center was set up at the local Baptist church, the station said.

RelatedVideo
Furry Friends “God really protected the boy," Grace Baptist Church Pastor Dave Kline said. "We are happy that we were able to help.”

Ingram told FOX News that once he was found, her son ate two double cheeseburgers, a hot dog and strawberry ice cream polished off with three Pepsi-Colas.

"He was safely returned," she told FOX News. "And thank Jesus, without a scratch."

[LG]

My E-Mini futures 120 Minute 24 Hour Semi-log Charts are
getting overbought as they test and slightly extend their
initial thrust highs off their 11/21 lows...



LG

[brainlessone]

i ran it on the public place friday mid PM and it sure looks different. maybe i looked at weekly

take a look at weekly of kol btu

take a look at daily for pot

[gtober]

Not sure what you mean brain.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BTU&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p44556070875&a=156245963&listNum=1

[brainlessone]

do he same chart with btu. its an opposite for the sto

[gtober]

Hmm, this is kinda interesting. If this wedge hits support again, I may just go whole hog. (you'll have to ask OP what whole hog means, as he's from Tennessee and he's gotta know)

If the resistance on the wedge breaks up, I think the 200 day ema/sma is the target. Perhaps that resistance line I have drawn as well, but I think they'll both be similar once we get there.

EDIT: Don't let the indicator divergences go unnoticed.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p44556070875&a=6498766&listNum=1

[LG]

hunkerdown: IMO, GS and JPM both will continue their bad boy ways, however they will be giving up leverage as they morph in an effort to get in on the tax payers dollars gravy train.

IMO the idiot running our Government have done nothing and will do very little to punish those that brought about this financial debacle or put proper regulatory measure in place to prevent it from happening again.

Without pointing out a specific party, our Government is the primarily responsible for this financial crisis and God knows they are not going to punish themselves.

The United States is plagued with idiocy among our leadership, a big reason for the downfall of the Roman Empire. Of course our citizenry elects the idiots. So, the ultimate responsibility falls on the shoulders of those electing the idiots.

LG

[hunkerdown]

LG...GS question

This article I will link is unreal if it means what I think. GS was allowed to create a kind of splinter bank to collect the handout taxpayer money from the government AND also stay an investment bank to continue the rape and pillage branch??? Am I reading this correct in your opinion? TIA

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE4AR6GI20081128?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&sp=true

[LG]

Have a great Thanksgiving everyone.

We celebrate Thanksgiving because of capitalism...

http://www.aier.org/research/commentaries/819-the-real-meaning-of-thanksgiving-the-triumph-of-capitalism-over-collectivism

LG

[LG]

MONGO: Admin Dan, a little assistance please. We need help getting the lid back on the septic tank...

LG

[LG]

Patrick Bateman: I see someone took the lid off the septic tank...

LG

[ajtj99]

Looking at the list it appears IHUB made the ban for 1-week, so it's off tomorrow night. I'm not going to hassle with them if that's the case. Here's the link that shows it:

http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/selling-stocks-on-rallies/2008/11/26/

[RCKS]

aj
Thanks for sharing that. Very funny and very cool.
I am somewhat computer literate but not really, so when ever I run into an obstacle of one kind or another I ask either of my boys to help me out. One is a freshman at ucsd and the other is a junior in hs, they both attack the problem and almost always solve it for me. Kids today are so far ahead around the tech stuff, its second nature to them.

I was just trying to give you grief about the out of hand posts, to be honest I think your approach is great and I for one know ones temper can get the best of us in trouble at times. I've taken a few penalties in my hockey leagues over the years, vbg/ng.

[ajtj99]

I'm going to do some more checking and look into it when I have more time.

[ajtj99]

You know, I saw the number of bans at 8 during the day today, but I was trading and it didn't register. Now I see it was done on the 20th, which was last week.

I have not been in favor of crushing free speech. However, I am in favor of civil discussion and considerate behavior.

When aj & tj were 4-years old they posted to LG on IHUB without my knowledge on three occasions. I wouldn't want my kids, who are 10 now, to see some of these things that were being written last week on the thread, although they sometimes see some crap on youtube they shouldn't also. Here's what they posted back in 2003:

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=973924
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=975016
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=1004892
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=1012047
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=1220055

[LG]

ajtj: I don't understand that, given Tea's behavior and he wasn't banned. And I TOS'd the offensive posts.

But then again, iHub management dislikes me because I've been outspoken in pointing out their warts...gg

LG

[RCKS]

aj
Your threads entertainment value goes down without a few renegades around. You can almost tell when the market is at important moments/turns, the stress level goes up a few notches.
I think you could turn it into a TA read, a turn is at hand when the flare ups start.

[ajtj99]

Ziggy, I had nothing to do with that. It appears it was done by IHUB administration without my knowledge. I've never seen that done before.

I have only banned two people in my time, but they encompassed six aliases.

Would you like me to look into it? It appears they did the same to Cannibas as well.

If I do look into it, I'd like your word that you'll be civil if you resume posting. Do we have a deal? You could also ask IHUB to give you an explanation, since they did this.

[ZiggyMarley123]

Hey AJTJ,

Just got back from Scottsdale today and see you banned me on your site for just conferring with the genius Cannabis? Well, hope you don't ban Cannabis because if one trades opposite of him they might do very well. Good conta indicator.

Cheers,

Ziggy

[ajtj99]

Sorry for the late response. I guess we found out what it was going to be like.

This is how the day should have went according to the mirror pattern on the SPX. We should be higher into Friday, then correct down from maybe 916-920 SPX to either 864 or 838 early next week. We'll see.

[ajtj99]

TREND1, I'm trading FAS and FAZ. The bid/ask spreads are a bit wide on these, and the volume is still a bit too low for them to be fast traders. Furthermore, they stray a bit from the underlying from time to time.

How are you finding BGU and BGZ?

[michael03332002]

you think we have seen the Low for the day, or a move down into the close to below 820 SPX would give us a good s/t bottom?

M

[TREND1]

aj99
I am trading BGU and BGZ.
Have you looked at and tried these 3X's ?

[Chrisalias]

Well, I have a FAZ trade on as well and that one is outperforming.
managed to purchase without the spread killing me this time...always an issue with FAZ

I have stops in on the FAZ trade so it will be a winner.

my FAS will have to wait for the bounce


edit: FAZ now stopped out
edit:#2 now back in for another round of FAZ....no more pointless updates from me

[ajtj99]

Well, there are also possible Head and Shoulder tops on many of the financials, the NDX, and the SPX, so the alternative is we dump and fill the gaps from Friday's close.

[Chrisalias]

sounds promising.....I bought a little FAS, currently slightly underwater and holding

[ajtj99]

Yes, a few times this morning as well as FAZ. It's been a bit mixed. The bid/ask spreads on FAZ are a killer. I should have quit for the day at about 10:30.

I think we are forming a bullish pennant on the indices that will take us to about 882 SPX by tomorrow. Friday we should be around 920 according to the patterns I'm following.

[Chrisalias]

Are you trading FAS Aj?

it appears that we may have bottomed for the time being anyway

[euterpe1]

I stand corrected. Looking at the Options arms and Alt A combined, the second mortgage tsunami will be worse than the first one.

[ajtj99]

The big bomb are the pay option ARM's. Those are almost 100% bad. They hit in 2010 and 2011.

[ajtj99]

FAZ is too illiquid this morning, and I'm looking to buy FAS if it the SPY corrects to test the 844 area.

[euterpe1]

2010 and 2011 you will see billion's of Alt A loans start to reset. 50% + of those loans are stated income loans. Those programs don't exist any longer. Fortunately, a large chunk of those loans are in CA, NV and Fla. Not that we all won't feel it, but they will bear the brunt of the housing decline...again.

[Chrisalias]

Are you playing FAS or FAZ today?

Given the gap fill possibilities, I'm just watching so far

[ajtj99]

LG, that's one reason why 2010 is a ticking time bomb. This liquidity will cushion things by mid 2009, but by early 2010 the other foot will drop, and it will be crushing.

[LG]

ajtj: What are "they" going to do when commercial real estate begins to default in numbers and possibly prime as well?

LG

[LG]

ajtj: Well I am watching the SPY 60min all sessions chart and the declining resistance line from the 11/04 high. Given the over bought condition of my regular hour SPY models, I still suspect we get a pullback today, just from a higher level than what looked to be the case yesterday into the close.

It is going to be interesting to see if "they" can gap over the resistance built up by the buying of the 10/10 low and the consolidation that followed.

LG

[ajtj99]

I still think we will fill the gap up today. It's likely we'll get a doji day by the time this is done.

[ajtj99]

LG, I was watching the move up since 8:15 and it looks like we may drop back to about 86 SPY from the way things are looking.

I don't typically venture into the pre-market because of liquidity issues on most items, so I'm waiting for the open to act.

[LG]

ajtj: Looks like what's left of the boyz is going to try and gap the market over the resistance built up from the consolidation that followed the 10/10 lows.

LG