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Jonsie, good job on this board. I have been checking in every once in a while, but as you know with the new job I am kept very busy. Tried to get to Bakersfield on the 28th, but will be in Vegas for the AAPEX show from the 28th of Oct thru the 3rd of Nov.
Apartsrep
Please visit http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=2905 for discussion related to Tri-Valley until further notice.
Thank you.
jonesie
Tri-Valley got the June production numbers put up today. I'll break it down later when/if I get some time, but for now these are the total oil production and gas production numbers for June.
June Oil = 1856bbl
June Gas = 14,801mcf
(These are also shown below for comparison to previous months)
=======================================
May: 31 Producing, 27 Shutin Oil Wells
Apr: 27 Producing, 25 Shutin Oil Wells
Mar: 27 Producing, 25 Shutin Oil Wells
Feb: 27 Producing, 25 Shutin Oil Wells
Jan: 27 Producing, 25 Shutin Oil Wells
May: 7 Producing, 5 Shutin NG Wells
Apr: 7 Producing, 5 Shutin NG Wells
Mar: 8 Producing, 4 Shutin NG Wells
Feb: 8 Producing, 4 Shutin NG Wells
Jan: 8 Producing, 4 Shutin NG Wells
==============================
==============================
Oil Production (total):
Jun: 1856bbl
May: 3629bbl (opi.consrv.ca.gov said 3194)
Apr: 1489bbl (opi.consrv.ca.gov said 1961)
Mar: 2977bbl
Feb: 3000bbl
Jan: 2795bbl
Daily production:
May: 117bbl
Apr: 50bbl
Mar: 96bbl
Feb: 107bbl
Jan: 90bbl
==============================
Oil From Bellridge South (total):
May: 2336bbl
Apr: 1068bbl
Mar: 1687bbl
Feb: 1699bbl
Jan: 1582bbl
From Well 029:
May: 2290bbl
Apr: 1039bbl
Mar: 1645bbl
Feb: 1657bbl
Jan: 1543bbl
From Well 030:
May: 46bbl
Apr: 29bbl
Mar: 42bbl
Feb: 42bbl
Jan: 39bbl
==============================
Oil From Edison:
May: 1293bbl
Apr: 421bbl
Mar: 1290bbl
Feb: 1301bbl
Jan: 1213bbl
==============================
==============================
NG Production (total):
Jun: 14,801mcf
May: 12,989mcf
Apr: 10,429mcf
Mar: 15,659mcf
Feb: 17,937mcf
Jan: 18,941mcf
Daily NG production:
May: 419mcf
Apr: 348mcf
Mar: 505mcf
Feb: 641mcf
Jan: 611mcf
==============================
==============================
NG From Dutch Slough 013:
May: 1780mcf
Apr: 1963mcf
Mar: 5534mcf
Feb: 6339mcf
Jan: 6694mcf
==============================
NG From Rio Vista (total):
May: 11,209mcf
Apr: 8,466mcf
Mar: 10,108mcf
Feb: 11,578mcf
Jan: 12,226mcf
From Well 013:
May: 3,217mcf
Apr: 3,601mcf
Mar: 4353mcf
Feb: 4986mcf
Jan: 5265mcf
From Well 095:
May: 7,992mcf
Apr: 4,865mcf
Mar: 5755mcf
Feb: 6592mcf
Jan: 6961mcf
=============================
NG From Tracy Gas Lathrop:
May: Shutin
Apr: Shutin
Mar: 17mcf
Feb: 20mcf
Jan: 21mcf
=============================
Scientists use new ultrasound tool to find gas
By Jason Szep
Tue Sep 12, 2:28 PM ET
CAMBRIDGE, Massachusetts (Reuters) - The technology resembles the ultrasounds used by doctors to inspect a woman's womb. But a team of scientists are using it to map rocks deep below the Earth's surface to hunt for oil and gas.
Hoping to unlock vast reserves of natural gas and oil trapped under layers of rock, scientists from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology have teamed up with Canada's biggest independent petroleum explorer, EnCana Corp., to test the ultrasound exploration technology in a Wyoming gas field.
They are looking for "sweet spots" -- pockets of natural gas and oil contained in fractured porous rocks.
The potential payoff is huge. The United States has an estimated 254 trillion cubic feet of gas from these so-called "tight" formations, enough to satisfy U.S. demand for 11 years, government data show.
"The potential is there to really have a major impact on the U.S. reserve picture," said Daniel R. Burns, a scientist in MIT's Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences.
The MIT scientists have developed the technology to work with an industry method known as hydraulic fracturing, which forces water into bedrock through deep wells to create fractures that open avenues for oil and gas to flow to wells.
Some companies like Alberta-based EnCana monitor these fractures with sophisticated three-dimensional seismic surveys. These are done by creating vibrations resembling mini-earthquakes on the Earth's surface and then listening to subsequent underground echoes.
When the echoes change, fractures are there, indicating roughly where energy companies should drill.
The MIT scientists take this a step further by monitoring vibrations directly underground through bore holes rather than from the surface of the Earth -- much like the way an ultrasound uses a probe to map a woman's womb to inspect a fetus.
GAS SHORTFALL
"The data volumes are very huge but in concept it's very similar to an ultrasound you might have on a pregnant woman," Burns said in an interview. The technology is called time-lapse vertical seismic profiling, or VSP.
Hard-to-reach formations known collectively as unconventional gas -- often found in tough drilling areas like the Rocky Mountains -- are seen as one of the best bets for heading off a shortfall of natural gas in traditional strongholds such as Canada, Texas and the Gulf of Mexico.
In the energy-hungry United States, demand for natural gas has more than doubled in two decades with supply stagnating and consumption forecast to surge -- growing nearly 40 percent by 2025, according to long-term estimates by the U.S. government.
The U.S. Department of Energy, which provided $580,000 to the MIT team, describes "tight gas" as the nation's fastest-growing source of natural gas. Until a few decades ago it was considered nearly impossible to reach.
Nancy House, a Denver-based geophysicist at EnCana, said MIT's technology holds promise and works well with existing technology in EnCana's majority-owned Jonah field in Wyoming.
"A lot of it is technology that has been around but is being looked at and combined in a new way," she said.
Tri-Valley Commences Operations on Its Pleasant Valley Oil Property
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Market Wire
12:34 p.m. 09/12/2006
BAKERSFIELD, CA, Sep 12, 2006 (MARKET WIRE via COMTEX) -- Tri-Valley Corporation (TIV) has commenced operations to drill its first development well in what is planned as a full-scale development project in this field.
From studies including reports by the State of California Division of Oil, Gas & Geothermal Resources, an independent engineer and Tri-Valley's own technical staff, the Company estimates more than 100 million barrels of oil in place in multiple formations for exploitation. Old, conventional recovery methods have typically recovered in the range of 25% in the heavy oil interval and new methods suggest double that or more may be achievable according to experts.
A report by the State of California indicates as much as 500 feet of pay in the Upper Vaca Tar Sand section and up to 200 feet in the lower Vaca interval. Several additional light oil formations are projected down to 8,500 feet. The Upper Vaca zone will be the primary target of the initial test well which will be drilled by the Company's own just-acquired rig number 105.
"We see this as an exceptional opportunity for our drilling partners and to add significant share value since modern recovery methods have never been applied here up to now. Experts such as Dr. Roger Butler, who have developed new recovery techniques for Canada's Athabasca Tar Sands, a similar formation, believe the Vaca can have high volume, long life wells using the new tar sand recovery technology," said Joseph R. Kandle, president of the operating subsidiary, Tri-Valley Oil & Gas Co.
While the initial well will be a vertical test, the Company could eventually drill as many as 20 dual horizontal wells to thoroughly exploit the oil in place and confirm Dr. Butler's estimate. Called SAG-D for steam assisted gravity drainage, the wells involve sets of upper and lower horizontal well bores with continuous steaming being injected into the over bore to help the heavy oil drain into the under bore for recovery. Tri-Valley has already acquired its first 25 million BTU steam generator for use on the Vaca wells.
"Pleasant Valley joins our Temblor Valley project in a drilling campaign to boost the Company's production, revenue and reportable reserves as we begin to convert these assets into income producing properties to build share value. We see this property as another source of significant upside reward for our project investors and shareholders," said F. Lynn Blystone, chief executive officer.
Tri-Valley Drills Through 375 Feet of Oil Saturated Diatomite Formation
------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------
Market Wire
2:21 p.m. 09/07/2006
BAKERSFIELD, CA, Sep 07, 2006 (MARKET WIRE via COMTEX) -- In what it terms a major boost in the already generous upside potential for re-exploitation of its Temblor Valley West oil property, Tri-Valley Corporation (TIV) announced it had drilled through 375 feet of oil saturated upper Diatomite formation in its Lundin-Weber D-350-30 well.
The company encountered the hydrocarbon zone from 700 feet through 1,075 feet and notes that offset wells in adjoining leases have been completed and produced in the Diatomite as deep as 4,000 feet.
"We originally modeled our target for 200 feet of net pay in the Diatomite to estimate 300 million barrels of oil in place in the zone for some percentage of recovery which, with modern methods, could exceed 10 percent. To find this much oilshows this early definitely expands our expectations for the field," said F. Lynn Blystone, president and chief executive officer.
Tri-Valley took over the lightly drilled (49 wells on 700 acres) property the first of this year and assembled its own production and drilling rig fleet for a drilling campaign to increase production. So far the well mud log shows have met or substantially exceed the targeted zones expectations.
Located on the west flank adjoining the massive South Belridge Oilfield Producing Complex 40 miles west of Bakersfield, California, Tri-Valley's property is favorably positioned high to the main structure and has been producing modestly exclusively from the shallow Etchegoin Sand for some 80 years and no production from either the Tulare or Diatomite formations has ever occurred. Some years ago, an adjoining 280 acre property produced in excess of 8,000 barrels a day from several hundred wells for several years predominantly from the Diatomite formation leading the Company to drill to confirm an extension of the formation on its own lease.
While the contained oil is in the desirable range of 26 to 28 gravity, and does not require steaming to recover, the Diatomite formation itself does require hydraulic fracturing to maximize recovery, a process that came late in the development of surrounding fields producing over the past 95 years.
"We're on the flank of a billion plus barrel oilfield and the major companies operating the field are shooting 3-D seismic over the larger region including our property to further define the potential. We also see deeper opportunity which we will investigate in due course while we ramp up production on this lease," said Joseph R. Kandle, president of the subsidiaries, Tri-Valley Oil & Gas Co., which operates the field and Great Valley Production Services LLC which is drilling the development well.
Tri-Valley has other producible properties with prospective zones for which it acquired its fleet of rigs to re-exploit and will begin deploying rigs later this year to drill these new zones. Development funding for three of these properties, including Temblor Valley, comes from the TVOG Opus I Drilling Program LP of which Tri-Valley Corporation is the managing partner and 25% working interest owner. Other properties are held 100 percent for Tri-Valley's account.
"We expect these properties to secure multiple high returns for our partners and add superior value to our shares as we increase production, revenue and reportable reserves. Until we achieve sustained production, we cannot classify these resources as proven reserves at this stage, but standard industry formulae for evaluating field potential in the industry augers well for our partners and shareholders in this regard," Blystone said.
Image associated with oil sands PR:
Image associated with Etchegoin Sand PR:
Tri-Valley Drills Through 25 Feet of Etchegoin Sand in Temblor Well
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Market Wire
1:43 p.m. 09/05/2006
BAKERSFIELD, CA, Sep 05, 2006 (MARKET WIRE via COMTEX) -- Tri-Valley Corporation (TIV) added a second oil saturated sand section to its Lundin-Weber D-352-30 well as it drilled through 25 feet of the shallow Etchegoin interval according to mud log indication. This is in line with Company anticipations for the target and begins confirmation of the previously estimated oil in place on the Temblor Valley property.
The Company notes that, in addition to the 49 wells already on the Temblor property to produce the Etchegoin, the neighboring South Belridge Oilfield has thousands of wells to provide an immense amount of downhole data for mapping and the L-WD-352-30 is further confirmation of Tri-Valley's mapped area of closure.
"We are pleased with our Etchegoin indications and we expect to be well into our primary objective, the prolific diatomite formation, today," said Joseph R. Kandle, president of the operating subsidiary, Tri-Valley Oil & Gas Co.
Tri-Valley is bringing modern recovery methods to an 80-year-old, lightly drilled lease with zones that have never been produced and are high to the main producing structure of the South Belridge Oilfield, currently the nation's third highest producing oilfield outside of Alaska. The L-WD-350-30 is the first of a multi well drilling campaign by the Company designed to ramp up production, revenue and reserves that are reportable under SEC regulations.
The Company is in its 43rd year of business as a successful operating company and for 32 years has been a full reporting 12 (g) publicly traded Delaware Corporation. Tri-Valley Corporation stock is publicly traded on the American Stock Exchange under the symbol "TIV" in the United States and is also traded in Europe on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange under the symbol "TVC WKN 911919." Our company websites, which include all SEC filings, are www.tri-valleycorp.com and www.tri-valley.de .
This press release contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Actual results, events and performance could vary materially from those contemplated by these forward-looking statements which includes such words and phrases as exploratory, wildcat, prospect, speculates, unproved, prospective, very large, expect, potential, etc. Among the factors that could cause actual results, events and performance to differ materially are risks and uncertainties discussed in the company's quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2006, and the annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2005.
Image Available: http://www.marketwire.com/mw/frame_mw?attachid=325208
IMO he most exciting change in the charts is in the Weekly Chart, with TIV closing ABOVE the long term downtrend line.
This is the first time TIV closed the week above that long term downtrend line since it closed a week at $8.25 on the one-shot Russell transaction, an event that did not hold TIV over that downtrend line for but a few hours.
Indicators are positioned well for continued growth, we'll just have to see!
The Daily shows solid continuation of the buy confirmation given last Thursday, with all indicators playing along nicely. CMF made a big move towards positive crossover.
WEEKLY CHART (DAILY SHOWN BELOW WEEKLY)
DAILY CHART
Tri-Valley Cuts 50 Feet of Oil Sand in Temblor Well
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Market Wire
2:33 p.m. 09/01/2006
BAKERSFIELD, CA, Sep 01, 2006 (MARKET WIRE via COMTEX) -- Tri-Valley Corporation (TIV) has drilled through fifty feet of oil sand more than targeted, in the shallow Tulare formation slightly, in its Lundin-Weber D-352-30 well offsetting the billion barrel South Belridge Oilfield. Located approximately forty miles west of Bakersfield, California on the west boundary of South Belridge, Tri-Valley's 700 acre lease is high to the main producing structure.
Code named Temblor Valley during the acquisition phase, the lease is known to have at least three oil bearing formations and for various reasons, has remained lightly drilled and under exploited for over 80 years. Tri-Valley brings modern recovery techniques and its own rig fleet to develop the acreage.
While the Tulare formation typically requires steaming, it has been the primary producing zone at South Belridge, the third highest producing oilfield in the contiguous 48 states. The Company expects to reach the second objective, the free flowing Etchegoin Sand later today. Sometime next week, Tri-Valley expects to enter the third objective, the free flowing diatomite section which is emerging as a major producing zone in the massive South Belridge Field and related properties.
"Given our position on the structure, we could be pleasantly surprised by the indicated accumulation in these three zones and there are additional deeper prospective objectives as well," said Joseph R. Kandle, president of the operating subsidiary, Tri-Valley Oil & Gas Co.
The Company is in its 43rd year of business as a successful operating company and for 32 years has been a full reporting 12 (g) publicly traded Delaware Corporation. Tri-Valley Corporation stock is publicly traded on the American Stock Exchange under the symbol "TIV" in the United States and is also traded in Europe on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange under the symbol "TVC WKN 911919." Our company websites, which include all SEC filings, are www.tri-valleycorp.com and www.tri-valley.de .
This press release contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Actual results, events and performance could vary materially from those contemplated by these forward-looking statements which includes such words and phrases as exploratory, wildcat, prospect, speculates, unproved, prospective, very large, expect, potential, etc. Among the factors that could cause actual results, events and performance to differ materially are risks and uncertainties discussed in the company's quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2006, and the annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2005.
Image Available: http://www.marketwire.com/mw/frame_mw?attachid=324336
CONTACT: F. Lynn Blystone President & Chief Executive Officer 1-800-579-9314
MONTHLY PRODUCTION NUMBERS
For my own tracking and calcs I put this information together, showing total NG and Oil production by month, then broken down by field and in some cases by well, using all reported production quantities from January through May. Easy to update and see changes/trends as newer information is reported by Tri-Valley through governmental reporting agencies.
Thought the all-in-one-place breakdown might be helpful to others as well.
Hopefully we'll be tracking the production growth coming from the workovers and new drilling going on at the moment.
(Note of interest: May 2006 Oil Production is a six-year high for Tri-Valley.)
=======================================
=======================================
May: 31 Producing, 27 Shutin Oil Wells
Apr: 27 Producing, 25 Shutin Oil Wells
Mar: 27 Producing, 25 Shutin Oil Wells
Feb: 27 Producing, 25 Shutin Oil Wells
Jan: 27 Producing, 25 Shutin Oil Wells
May: 7 Producing, 5 Shutin NG Wells
Apr: 7 Producing, 5 Shutin NG Wells
Mar: 8 Producing, 4 Shutin NG Wells
Feb: 8 Producing, 4 Shutin NG Wells
Jan: 8 Producing, 4 Shutin NG Wells
==============================
==============================
Oil Production (total):
May: 3629bbl (opi.consrv.ca.gov said 3194)
Apr: 1489bbl (opi.consrv.ca.gov said 1961)
Mar: 2977bbl
Feb: 3000bbl
Jan: 2795bbl
Daily production:
May: 117bbl
Apr: 50bbl
Mar: 96bbl
Feb: 107bbl
Jan: 90bbl
==============================
Oil From Bellridge South (total):
May: 2336bbl
Apr: 1068bbl
Mar: 1687bbl
Feb: 1699bbl
Jan: 1582bbl
From Well 029:
May: 2290bbl
Apr: 1039bbl
Mar: 1645bbl
Feb: 1657bbl
Jan: 1543bbl
From Well 030:
May: 46bbl
Apr: 29bbl
Mar: 42bbl
Feb: 42bbl
Jan: 39bbl
==============================
Oil From Edison:
May: 1293bbl
Apr: 421bbl
Mar: 1290bbl
Feb: 1301bbl
Jan: 1213bbl
==============================
==============================
NG Production (total):
May: 12,989mcf
Apr: 10,429mcf
Mar: 15,659mcf
Feb: 17,937mcf
Jan: 18,941mcf
Daily NG production:
May: 419mcf
Apr: 348mcf
Mar: 505mcf
Feb: 641mcf
Jan: 611mcf
==============================
==============================
NG From Dutch Slough 013:
May: 1780mcf
Apr: 1963mcf
Mar: 5534mcf
Feb: 6339mcf
Jan: 6694mcf
==============================
NG From Rio Vista (total):
May: 11,209mcf
Apr: 8,466mcf
Mar: 10,108mcf
Feb: 11,578mcf
Jan: 12,226mcf
From Well 013:
May: 3,217mcf
Apr: 3,601mcf
Mar: 4353mcf
Feb: 4986mcf
Jan: 5265mcf
From Well 095:
May: 7,992mcf
Apr: 4,865mcf
Mar: 5755mcf
Feb: 6592mcf
Jan: 6961mcf
=============================
NG From Tracy Gas Lathrop:
May: Shutin
Apr: Shutin
Mar: 17mcf
Feb: 20mcf
Jan: 21mcf
=============================
Short interest on TIV as of Trade Date 8/10/06:
Month-----ShrsShort---- % Change
---------------------------------
Aug 2006 - 3,263,093 ---- (-5.04%)
Jul 2006 -- 3,436,104 ---- (-17.3%)
Jun 2006 - 4,156,544 ---- +13.87%
May 2006- 3,650,143 ------ +1.83%
Apr 2006 - 3,584,379 ----- (-5.41%)
Mar 2006 - 3,789,445 ----- (-4.23%)
Feb 2006 - 3,956,897 ----- (-3.56%)
Jan 2006 - 4,102,837 ------ +3.86%
Dec 2005 - 3,950,446 ----- (-1.88%)
Nov 2005 - 4,025,937 ------ +5.01%
Oct 2005 - 3,833,789 ------ +1.39%
Sep 2005 - 3,781,376 ------ +9.56%
Aug 2005 - 3,451,421 ----- +24.25%
Jul 2005 - 2,777,900 ----- +39.66%
Jun 2005 - 1,989,039 ----- +20.65%
May 2005 - 1,648,631 ----- +40.68 %
Apr 2005 - 1,171,931 ---- +113.52 %
Mar 2005 --- 548,854 ----- +86.95%
Feb 2005 --- 293,590 ---- +327.46%
Jan 2005 ---- 68,682 ----- +96.67%
Dec 2004 ---- 34,923 ----- +37.38%
Nov 2004 ---- 25,421 ----- +10.40
Oct 2004 ---- 23,027 ---- +408.66
Sep 2004 ----- 4,527 ---- (-59.68)
Aug 2004 ---- 11,227 ---- +132.59
Jul 2004 ----- 4,827 ---- (-31.31)
Jun 2004 ----- 7,027 ----- +55.22
May 2004 ----- 4,527 ------ NC ---
Apr 2004 ----- 4,527 ---- (-94.73)
Mar 2004 ---- 85,881 ---- (-13.21)
Feb 2004 ---- 98,951 ---- (-00.88)
Jan 2004 ---- 99,833 ----- +00.89
Dec 2003 ---- 98,951 ---- (-18.30)
Shareholder Letter July 31, 2006
Dear Shareholder:
First, save Saturday, October 28 for our 2006 Annual Shareholder meeting to be held in Bakersfield at the Petroleum Club, 5060 California Avenue, 12th floor from 9AM-12PM. We will plan field trips to the Temblor Valley property to see drilling operations and the rig yard at 220 Industrial Street. Please contact Felicia Todd at our office for information including hotel rooms.
We now have eight production rigs, five of which are being refitted to drill wells ranging from 2,000 feet to 8,000 feet. We re-worked a few of the wells at Temblor Valley west but then assigned the crews to 220 Industrial to help speed up the re-fitting of Rig 103 to drill since the big strides in production/revenue increases will come from drilling new, virgin wells. Great Valley Production Services LLC, our work production rig subsidiary, wants to do that at Temblor as often as possible to build returns for shareholders and project investors.
We expect to make the final acquisition payment on the Nevada drill rig in the next few weeks as it completes its present drilling job. Then, Great Valley Drilling Co. LLC, our new drilling subsidiary, takes over that rig. In the near term it will remain in Nevada to work at premium rates.
The staff has been strained by starting up two new operating subsidiaries in addition to its usual duties, and we are very actively recruiting to give Joe assistance in these new responsibilities on the oil and gas side.
On the minerals side, our executives have been very busy helping the American subsidiary of a Canadian company go public on the Toronto Stock Exchange in a scenario similar to what we foresee for our minerals subsidiary, Select Resources Corporation. We expect this experience will enable us to better prepare Select for that eventuality.
Tri-Valley continues to expand its domestic oil and gas leases and prospects with the belief that these commodities can only appreciate in value. This value will be added at a substantial rate as the Company resumes drilling this year. As we advised in January 2005, we have made significant investments forward of revenues which has created operating losses. And, we are still making investments in the rig fleet before all can be put to work. However, as we drill development wells and put our rigs to work, our revenues will increase to restore profitability to demonstrate the validity of those investments to build share value and returns to our project partners.
Very truly yours,
F. Lynn Blystone
President and CEO
TIV confirmed a buy today on the close.
Prelim. buy at ST uptrend line, two touches, all indicators "GO".
Let's see some follow-through!
Short Interest as of 7/11/06:
Short interest on TIV as of Trade Date 7/11/06:
Month-----ShrsShort---- % Change
---------------------------------
Jul 2006 - 3,436,104 ---- (-17.3%)
Jun 2006 - 4,156,544 ---- +13.87%
May 2006 - 3,650,143 ------ +1.83%
Apr 2006 - 3,584,379 ----- (-5.41%)
Mar 2006 - 3,789,445 ----- (-4.23%)
Feb 2006 - 3,956,897 ----- (-3.56%)
Jan 2006 - 4,102,837 ------ +3.86%
Dec 2005 - 3,950,446 ----- (-1.88%)
Nov 2005 - 4,025,937 ------ +5.01%
Oct 2005 - 3,833,789 ------ +1.39%
Sep 2005 - 3,781,376 ------ +9.56%
Aug 2005 - 3,451,421 ----- +24.25%
Jul 2005 - 2,777,900 ----- +39.66%
Jun 2005 - 1,989,039 ----- +20.65%
May 2005 - 1,648,631 ----- +40.68 %
Apr 2005 - 1,171,931 ---- +113.52 %
Mar 2005 --- 548,854 ----- +86.95%
Feb 2005 --- 293,590 ---- +327.46%
Jan 2005 ---- 68,682 ----- +96.67%
Dec 2004 ---- 34,923 ----- +37.38%
Nov 2004 ---- 25,421 ----- +10.40
Oct 2004 ---- 23,027 ---- +408.66
Sep 2004 ----- 4,527 ---- (-59.68)
Aug 2004 ---- 11,227 ---- +132.59
Jul 2004 ----- 4,827 ---- (-31.31)
Jun 2004 ----- 7,027 ----- +55.22
May 2004 ----- 4,527 ------ NC ---
Apr 2004 ----- 4,527 ---- (-94.73)
Mar 2004 ---- 85,881 ---- (-13.21)
Feb 2004 ---- 98,951 ---- (-00.88)
Jan 2004 ---- 99,833 ----- +00.89
Dec 2003 ---- 98,951 ---- (-18.30)
The MACD SPD kind of told the tale a while back
The Single Point Divergence that MACD was showing for a while turned out to be the harbinger and, along with the potential for a double bottom at 5.52 having occurred, helped justify buying more heavily in there with less concern over catching a falling knife.
Fairy Square going in TIV chart, looks good
Chart shows previous non-F.S. setup, which failed, and current F.S. setup:
Short interest on TIV as of Trade Date 5/10/06:
Month-----ShrsShort---- % Change
---------------------------------
May 2006- 3,650,143 ------ +1.83%
Apr 2006 - 3,584,379 ----- (-5.41%)
Mar 2006 - 3,789,445 ----- (-4.23%)
Feb 2006 - 3,956,897 ----- (-3.56%)
Jan 2006 - 4,102,837 ------ +3.86%
Dec 2005 - 3,950,446 ----- (-1.88%)
Nov 2005 - 4,025,937 ------ +5.01%
Oct 2005 - 3,833,789 ------ +1.39%
Sep 2005 - 3,781,376 ------ +9.56%
Aug 2005 - 3,451,421 ----- +24.25%
Jul 2005 - 2,777,900 ----- +39.66%
Jun 2005 - 1,989,039 ----- +20.65%
May 2005 - 1,648,631 ----- +40.68 %
Apr 2005 - 1,171,931 ---- +113.52 %
Mar 2005 --- 548,854 ----- +86.95%
Feb 2005 --- 293,590 ---- +327.46%
Jan 2005 ---- 68,682 ----- +96.67%
Dec 2004 ---- 34,923 ----- +37.38%
Nov 2004 ---- 25,421 ----- +10.40
Oct 2004 ---- 23,027 ---- +408.66
Sep 2004 ----- 4,527 ---- (-59.68)
Aug 2004 ---- 11,227 ---- +132.59
Jul 2004 ----- 4,827 ---- (-31.31)
Jun 2004 ----- 7,027 ----- +55.22
May 2004 ----- 4,527 ------ NC ---
Apr 2004 ----- 4,527 ---- (-94.73)
Mar 2004 ---- 85,881 ---- (-13.21)
Feb 2004 ---- 98,951 ---- (-00.88)
Jan 2004 ---- 99,833 ----- +00.89
Dec 2003 ---- 98,951 ---- (-18.30)
Looks like the shorts added a few shorted shares between 4/10 and 5/10.
Some covered, some shorted, net net, a slight increase.
Rocket Fuel intact and topped off? ;)
Need an ignition source.
Not sure where that's coming from but the daily chart looked marginally better today than yesterday of course, Full Stochs turned up a bit, still got that positive SPD in MACD going on, weak Magic Box off the lower bolly, no Wm%R confirmation yet though.
I'll just have to hang my hat on those positives and the double bottom maybe sticking, glad I added some yesterday.
Good luck to all!
10-Q out:
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/22551/000002255106000007/tvc033106-10q.htm
Not sure I see anything in there to forestall TIV being excluded from the Russell indices. That could result in up to 2MM shares hitting the market.
Shorts may have a plan to use that to their advantage in covering lower than here, but covering nonetheless. With all that TIV has going on I don't see them going out of business any time soon, but neither do I see them swinging for the fences in any manner that will double/triple the PPS any time soon. At best TIV seems to be a marginal trading vehicle with shrinking recent swing opportunities. Post-Russell might be a good time to take a significant position betting on what "should" be an inevitable rebound.
JMHO
jonesie
Oil/Gas Cycle Update
Just holding the green ones.
Oil/Gas Cycle Update
This is fun. Although a few others like PLLL, CWPC and ACI have had the biggest runs in 2 months, the IBD A+ stocks invested in have done VERY well, and with a minimum of risk.
Sad to note that in the current energy boom (perhaps a once in a lifetime boom) TIV is resoundingly at the rear of the pack. With the market being a forward-discounting mechanism assigning stock values based on future expectations ... it would appear that expectations for TIV are not all that high at the moment. TIV is down 22% in the same time period that our leading pick is up 31%.
On to the good news:
Oil/Gas Cycle Update
We've had some nice gains in the A+ picks, recovering from last week's lows around Thursday.
I should have also gone in big on NXG which was Chris' rec, he is seriously rocking and rolling in that one LOL. Couldawouldashoulda
Oil/Gas Cycle Update
--- Since we have quiet visitors who don't want to contribute, just yammer negatively on other boards ... I want to make sure they have something productive to yammer about ;) ---
Some pullbacks in all the A+'s, although still a healthy 2 month return. Some are actually approaching lower bolly bands, will be looking for potential Magic Box setups in which to add shares.
Oil/gas isn't going down overall in our lifetimes, they are going UP.
Fun with numbers:
Since 1/10/06, the January Short Interest "as of" trade date, the short interest has dropped ~ 12.6%.
Since 1/9/06, the day before that "as of" trade date, the PPS has dropped ~12.97%.
So far this short covering thing ... well, at this rate ... by the time shorts finish covering ... TIV will be $0.00 or less.
Just kidding, kinda.
Still in and adding on dips as long as TIV closes over the 5SMA.
jonesie
SHORT INTEREST AS OF 4/10/06
Down another 5%
Short interest on TIV as of Trade Date 4/10/06:
Month-----ShrsShort---- % Change
---------------------------------
Apr 2006 - 3,584,379 ----- (-5.41%)
Mar 2006 - 3,789,445 ----- (-4.23%)
Feb 2006 - 3,956,897 ----- (-3.56%)
Jan 2006 - 4,102,837 ------ +3.86%
Dec 2005 - 3,950,446 ----- (-1.88%)
Nov 2005 - 4,025,937 ------ +5.01%
Oct 2005 - 3,833,789 ------ +1.39%
Sep 2005 - 3,781,376 ------ +9.56%
Aug 2005 - 3,451,421 ----- +24.25%
Jul 2005 - 2,777,900 ----- +39.66%
Jun 2005 - 1,989,039 ----- +20.65%
May 2005 - 1,648,631 ----- +40.68 %
Apr 2005 - 1,171,931 ---- +113.52 %
Mar 2005 --- 548,854 ----- +86.95%
Feb 2005 --- 293,590 ---- +327.46%
Jan 2005 ---- 68,682 ----- +96.67%
Dec 2004 ---- 34,923 ----- +37.38%
Nov 2004 ---- 25,421 ----- +10.40
Oct 2004 ---- 23,027 ---- +408.66
Sep 2004 ----- 4,527 ---- (-59.68)
Aug 2004 ---- 11,227 ---- +132.59
Jul 2004 ----- 4,827 ---- (-31.31)
Jun 2004 ----- 7,027 ----- +55.22
May 2004 ----- 4,527 ------ NC ---
Apr 2004 ----- 4,527 ---- (-94.73)
Mar 2004 ---- 85,881 ---- (-13.21)
Feb 2004 ---- 98,951 ---- (-00.88)
Jan 2004 ---- 99,833 ----- +00.89
Dec 2003 ---- 98,951 ---- (-18.30)
blasher, thanks.
I've seen some of your work before, think I ran into you on Ken's board a while back.
I'll have to take a good look at that, thanks again.
I guess "seasonality" might have been a misnomer for what I was doing. I had caught the beginning of a big oil/gas up-cycle last April or so, and was watching early this year for drops to lower uptrendlines and 200MA's etc for the beginning of a similar cycle this year.
Good luck to you too!
jonesie
Oil/Gas Cycle
This has been absolutely awesome, even the one IBD A+ laggard that was picked on 2/28 has caught up and gone green.
Global Oil Stocks: Stay Bullish
April 13, 2006
Despite the run-up in global oil & gas stocks, the case supporting a continued long position remains solid.
The trend in the ratio of global energy equities to the oil price is upward sloping over time, due to productivity gains and volume growth. Currently, this ratio is well below the level suggested by the trend since 1985. Moreover, oil & gas stock valuation multiples are low—a metric which adjusts the trailing P/E ratio for the level of interest rates is significantly below its historical average. The implication is that global oil & gas stocks are cheap, not just relative to the broad market but relative to bond yields as well. And, as outlined in an April 7th Insight, an upgrade in analyst earnings expectations looms, which should provide a boost. Bottom line: the prevailing cautious sentiment surrounding global oil & gas stocks has kept valuations attractive, and we recommend clients stay long.
http://www.bcaresearch.com/public/index.asp
hey jonesie ... Oil-Gas Seasonality . . . ...
I don't know if you've ever seen my Oil & Gas Seasonality study before ...
but I'll share them here .. a seemingly appropriate board:
These are the drillers & explorers in the Industry, by symbol, Monthly then Weekly:
http://www.blashing.com/_misc_/OilGasDrillingExplore.php
These are the equipment & services companies in the Industry, by symbol, Monthly then Weekly:
http://www.blashing.com/_misc_/OilGasEquipSvcs.php
Enjoy .. and Good Luck !!
Log vs Linear Charts...
Let me know what you find regarding Log versus Linear charts if you do a side-by-side comparison. I have been using Log charts but your Linear charts seem to be fairly accurate for drawing trend lines...based on your results. I will try to do some reasearch as well on the pros/cons of each method and will let you know what I find.
Have a good Easter.
Lefty
TIV gap back in 2004 ...
... never got filled.
The low last year of 5.52 did not go all the way down to 11/23/04's closing price of 5.49. Missed it by 3 cents.
Just goofin' around ;)
lefty, re: oil/gas
Oddly enough it's been CWPC, rated low by IBD, that has risen the most ... of course LOL. But the A+ ones have done great in a short period of time.
TIV has lagged the most on that list, along with CFW, another Craig Scott involvement. Wonder what it means.
I probably need to check the log scale charts, there may well be stocks where log is more predictive than linear, I may run both side by side for a while on a few to see.
Hard to imagine TIV could actually do that, $6 was one thing, $3 is entirely different. Perhaps just a double-bottom in the $6 area is the worst TIV will see but, as you say, Russell looms large.
Watching and waiting.
Best regards,
jonesie
Oil/Gas seasonality...
You did catch that cycle just right. I saw your posts but didn't jump in back then.
I looked at my weekly chart and had trouble seeing what you were seeing in terms of a $3'ish lower downtrend line but I realized the difference is my charts are in Log scale...not Linear as you are using. Once I set to Linear I see what you are seeing. The lower trendline in log scale is in the low $4's. I think I may have asked you about this before...but the way your charting has been working I may switch to Linear ;) Any thoughts as there are proponents for each method?
Your thoughts on the Russell were what actually concerned me most regarding my TIV investment. If TIV gets kicked out it certainly means additional significant downward pressure. "Barring real news" between now and then the price will continue to slide, the market cap will not merit staying in the Russell, and a trip to $3ish is not out of the question.
Hi Lefty,
I was wondering about you. Glad to hear you're still at it. You know, I STILL never spent the time on Ken's Seasonality stuff ... although did you see my oil/gas "seasonality" stuff on this board? Caught that cycle just right.
With all the stuff in the works it's kind of hard to contemplate TIV banging that lower downtrend line again .. but then, there really wasn't a definitive reason for it to bang down to it LAST time ... so I have to regard that as a possibility. Look at how "repetitive" that would be on the weekly chart.
Wouldn't it be neat to load up there ($3'ish) for a trip to $8 or so? My luck I'll be on vacation in some remote place if it happens LOL, and there's certainly nothing saying it WILL happen.
You see my thoughts on Russell? Barring news .. that's REAL.
Good luck to you too.
jonesie
Hey Jonesie...its been a while. Been lurking but not posting much if at all. Hope all is well. I appreciate your TA and commentary posting here and on Yahoo. I am still working with and trading based on Seasonality concepts and charting. How about you?
As everyone I am disappointed by TIV but still optimistic. I believe they will eventually make good on their plans although it is taking way longer than even dedicated longs like myself are comfortable with. I never thought we would see the $6's again but for some reason the "big news right around the corner" never seems to materialize and the stock continues to drift lower as a result.
This is one of my two or three story stocks that I don't trade much if at all. Rules are rules and my exit strategy "mental stop" price is fast approaching and I never thought we would get back there with TIV.
Big decisions to make. I will be looking closely at the charts. Good luck.
Lefty
TIV CHARTS
Talk about the classic bounce off the middle of the current support range, at least that's what happened yesterday. Have to see what happens next.
Daily Chart:
Wm%R trying to crawl up out of oversold territory with the bounce off yesterday's LOD, ChiOsc ticking up a bit and MACD trying to go positive. It's tryin', but nothing confirmed yet.
Weekly Chart:
Sitting squarely on the long term uptrendline at the moment, with indicators in position to make a move, just not making the move yet. As time goes on the downtrend channel seems to gain priority, but the right news could change that.
jonesie
Oil/Gas Seasonality Cycle
Wow, all but a few are up, with only 4 stocks on this list being down 5% or more since 2/28.
The IBD Fund. A+ stocks have done very well.
OT: A bit of humor suggested by another sometime TIV long ...
Tres Hombres sighted at their recent golf outing.
From L-R: Oiler, Rodney, Dave.
Update on Oil/Gas Seasonality Cycle
Buying the IBD Fundamentally rated A+ stocks on 2/28 has worked out for some nice 5 week gains.
Support / Resistance
On paper ... last line of support. Below here there be monsters.
CURRENT PRICE 7.03, at support, 6.91 ± 0.31, type double, strength 7
RESISTANCE ABOVE
+12.2% at 7.89 ± 0.36, type triple+, strength 10
+20.2% at 8.45 ± 0.38, type double, strength 4
+34.9% at 9.48 ± 0.43, type single, strength 3
+48.8% at 10.46 ± 0.47, type triple+, strength 10
SUPPORT BELOW None.
Weekly Chart:
IMO there is now a race on, between:
-TIV getting some GOOD news out on one front or other and getting the PPS up and
-The potential for being dropped from the Russell lists for failing to make the market capitalization cutoff.
The weekly chart clearly shows the downtrend TIV has been in for the last year. Interestingly, the current longer term uptrend line position coincides exactly with the current calculated support in this area and could provide for a bounce.
IMO further erosion of the PPS resulting in breaking this support and uptrend line could leave TIV susceptible to a significant drop to the lower edge of the downtrend channel. The next few weeks leading into the Russell decision will tell an interesting story.
jonesie
Daily Chart:
The low-volume buy signal given last week did not hold up for even a day, again illustrating why volume is necessary to trigger an actual purchase. Patience works.
TIV is trading in the last recent support area, psychological support could prove to be stronger than actual calculated support here, if not, TIV will break it to the downside and be trading in somewhat uncharted waters, no pun intended.
Correction, TIV confirmed buy signal on 3/30. EOM
TIV confirmed Wm%R buy signal today ...
... after giving a preliminary buy signal recently.
Volume not heavy, but it might not take a whole lot to get something started.
-jonesie
Oil/Gas Stocks Current Cycle Update
UPL, HYDL and PTEN are the IBD Fundamental A+ winners since 2/28.
Update on Oil/Gas sector seasonality:
For most of the stocks on the list posted previously this has been a hefty growth period just like last year.
Buying the stocks with IBD Fundamental ratings of A+ has yielded gains on 8 stocks from 1% to 13%, with a couple of small losers, all in one month's time. Taking a flyer on a pick by Stuart (trillong on TIV Yahoo) has yielded a 65% gain in the same time period.
Updated results:
Oil Sector Stock Price Cycle?
Last April/May saw many oil, gas and oil/gas services stocks' prices hit their 200SMA and/or lower uptrend lines then realize huge gains over the next 8-9 months.
Many of these stocks are once again at or near this same moving average and/or lower uptrend line.
The below spreadsheet shows several that may be good candidates for riding through the next cycle. A few are below their 200SMA which is a bit worrisome, some have broken uptrend lines, this can be seen in the spreadsheet as stocks whose current prices are lower than the 200SMA price noted, or below the current position of the uptrend line.
FWIW -jonesie
(note: the S&P 500 note next to HAL is incorrect, should be next to CHK, I saw that somewhere, have not confirmed though)
Short interest on TIV as of Trade Date 2/10/06:
Month-----ShrsShort---- % Change
---------------------------------
Feb 2006 - 3,956,897 ----- (-3.56)
Jan 2006 - 4,102,837 ------ +3.86%
Dec 2005 - 3,950,446 ----- (-1.88%)
Nov 2005 - 4,025,937 ------ +5.01%
Oct 2005 - 3,833,789 ------ +1.39%
Sep 2005 - 3,781,376 ------ +9.56%
Aug 2005 - 3,451,421 ----- +24.25%
Jul 2005 - 2,777,900 ----- +39.66%
Jun 2005 - 1,989,039 ----- +20.65%
May 2005 - 1,648,631 ----- +40.68 %
Apr 2005 - 1,171,931 ---- +113.52 %
Mar 2005 --- 548,854 ----- +86.95%
Feb 2005 --- 293,590 ---- +327.46%
Jan 2005 ---- 68,682 ----- +96.67%
Dec 2004 ---- 34,923 ----- +37.38%
Nov 2004 ---- 25,421 ----- +10.40
Oct 2004 ---- 23,027 ---- +408.66
Sep 2004 ----- 4,527 ---- (-59.68)
Aug 2004 ---- 11,227 ---- +132.59
Jul 2004 ----- 4,827 ---- (-31.31)
Jun 2004 ----- 7,027 ----- +55.22
May 2004 ----- 4,527 ------ NC ---
Apr 2004 ----- 4,527 ---- (-94.73)
Mar 2004 ---- 85,881 ---- (-13.21)
Feb 2004 ---- 98,951 ---- (-00.88)
Jan 2004 ---- 99,833 ----- +00.89
Dec 2003 ---- 98,951 ---- (-18.30)
Well have a good trip!
I suppose it could be in a holding pattern, but if it holds sideways it breaks the ST uptrend to the downside eventually ... not by much at first of course, but a break nonetheless, and would bode ill for the short term IMHO.
TIV still has the longer term uptrend line down there ~ $7, with the always possible overshoot taking it a tad lower on panic sells and shorts piling on sensing an opportunity to break something.
Good luck! -jonesie
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