Stock Market Predictions and News

[Stock Trading Guru]

FOMC Analysis and Prediction For Week March 23 2015.

The FOMC announcement and the press conference after did not disappoint. That was hugely important for stock traders and investors as it set the tone for stock market predictions going forward.

The Bulls clearly dominated the Bears last week as evidenced by the stock market prediction algorithm giving the Bulls a huge advantage; however, I had to trump the score and tone down the Bulls advantage to only "slightly" over the Bears. The reason was the NYAD to the S&P 500.

Rate hikes are definitely coming by the end of 2015. In the weekly Saturday show, I spent 30 minutes breaking down the FOMC announcement and press conference. Here is that analysis:

Full Report: Stock Market Prediction News For Week of March 23 2015

[Stock Trading Guru]

Prediction for March 16 2015 shows lots of uncertainty in the market but the real thing that got me was the institutional trader selling detected on the TICK.

The TICK, if you already know this then sorry, is +1 for a buy order and -1 for a sell order. Most institutional trader activity tools are fake. Even looking at level II is not very helpful because fake orders are entered then cancelled milliseconds later to mask activity. In any event, the TICK is used to "suggest" institutional trader activity because when institutional traders buy (or sell) across many sectors, market makers have trouble matching up a buy order with a sell order and hence the TICK closes outside the -600 to +600 range. On days that happens, you then look at the best (or worst) performing sectors for that day to get a guess at what institutional traders are doing.

Using this less than perfect method, the TICK detected institutional selling on both Tuesday March 10, and Wednesday, March 11, 2015. On both days, the sectors that sold off where bearish. This by itself doesn't mean that the market is going to sell off next week but I think what is somewhat surprising is institutional traders are talking a very bullish scenario over the mainstream financial media.

In this week's show, I talk more about this:

Full report: Stock Market Prediction For Week of March 16 2015

[Stock Trading Guru]

Prediction For Week of March 2 2015 is that the Bulls have a slight advantage over Bears.

The month of March can be described in one word according to the Stock Trader's Almanac: turbulent. It's not really a VIX spike sort of turbulence, although that could happen, it's more of a price swing situation. The month of March has been starting off strong with Bulls dominating, but sometime around middle to late March, Bears dominate.

Last week's testimony by Janet Yellen where she and Republicans started going at it was awesome. Janet Yellen is one tough cookie. I've seen men crack under that type of pressure but for Yellen, she holds her own.

In my opinion, the big news last week was the positive surprise in the Durable Goods report. Instead of coming in at 2%, it was 2.8%. That's a big surprise folks. Could this FINALLY be the start of what we've all been waiting for--the lower price of oil starting to show up in consumer demand? We need more data to know for sure.

Below is the weekly financial show, broadcast every Saturday evening on YouTube, where I talk more about the U.S. economy and stock market prediction for the week ahead. I was sooo sick when I did the show this week guys. Tried not to show it but had to keep stopping as I hacked a lung out.

Full report: Trading Algorithm Prediction For Week of March 2 2015

[Stock Trading Guru]

Prediction For Week of February 23 2015 is that the Bulls have the advantage.

But let's not get too happy. The negative divergence between the NYAD and the S&P 500 means we are NOT yet in a "running with the Bulls" market. Nevertheless, market internals clearly favor the Bulls.

Next week is big with the Janet Yellen testimony before Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday. We now know why the Federal Reserve continues to be so bullish on the economy beyond their economic forecasting model.

All disinflation is not equal. The current disinflation we are experiencing is from the rising U.S. dollar and the plunge in the price of oil. That's completely different than the bad sort of disinflation where no one is buying anything and so businesses lose pricing power. They slash their prices below cost just to reduce inventory and move product. That is not the type of disinflation we are currently experiencing. This is why the Federal Reserve sees the current spat of disinflation as something that is only temporary. Below is the weekly show broadcast every Saturday evening on YouTube where I talk about this and many other issues likely to impact traders next week.

Full Report: Stock Market Prediction Algorithm Week of Feb 23 2015

[Stock Trading Guru]

Stock Market Prediction for Week of February 16 2015.

Bulls just continue to dominate the market. Once again, the TICK picked up institutional buying last week on Thursday, February 12, 2015.

The only cautionary signal is $SPX to the $NYAD which did a negative divergence. The Tuesday after President's Day is usually a down day for markets according to the Stock Trader's Almanac. Is that what we are detecting on the negative divergence between $SPX and the $NYAD? Even so it could be nothing more than a little pullback early next week, after the big week last week.

Keep your eyes on the FOMC Minutes next Wednesday, February 18, 2015. Look for the word "patience". We are using the 2004 playbook where, when the Federal Reserve drops the word patience, rates will be raised soon after.

Full Weekly Report: Stock Market Prediction For Week of February 16 2015

[Stock Trading Guru]

Stock market prediction for February 9 2015. The institutional buying last week tipped the advantage to the Bulls. The advantage the Bulls have is a lot greater "below the hood" or in the market internals, than a quick look at the trends would suggest.

The Bulls were given the upper hand by the stock exchange prediction algorithm for trading. People, it wasn't even close! What actually made the difference was that institutional dealers came into the marketplace on February 5, 2015 and February 3. Institutional traders purchased across every sector.

Full report: Prediction For Week of February 9 2015

[Stock Trading Guru]

Huge institutional trader buying today! This is the first time the TICK has detected institutional traders buying in 2015.

This has big implications and it favors the Bulls.

Also, the institutional buying today, February 3, 2015, was broad-based across many sectors. That's another confirmation beyond the TICK that points to institutional trader activity.

As a reminder, for February, we were watching for a repeat of 2014 where institutional buying came in, in early February. That's exactly what we got today. In 2014, the first institutional buying for the year was detected on the TICK on February 7, 2014. In 2015, the first institutional buying for the year came on February 3, 2014. That's only a 3 trading day differencen from last year!

Full report: Tracking Institutional Buying COWABUNGA Dudes!

[Stock Trading Guru]

My stock market forecast 2015 is flat. The market will close flat for 2015. I am going to update this prediction as the year goes on and we have more data. I am not prepared to predict a down market for the year, even though the January Barometer closed down for the month of January (-3.1%). There's just too much potential the economy has Jobless Claims dropping to a 15 year low and as evidenced by Apple's enormous gains last week.

The market prediction algorithm continues to be pretty equally matched. Bears have the slight edge going into next week but it is not by much.

For another week, all the major indices are trading sideways. The stock market forecast for trading next week is that the Bears have a small advantage over the Bulls.

Full report: Prediction For Week of February 2 2015

[Stock Trading Guru]

Stock Market Crash 2015 if the Federal Reserve does not move to defend the US dollar. The economy will crash in 2016. The probability that the Federal Reserve will devalue the US dollar in order to defend it in the currency wars just went way up after last week.

Below is an excerpt from the weekly Saturday show broadcast on YouTube where I discuss the rising dollar and the price of oil. If you're interested in this, make sure to read the full report which goes into more detail with more charts.

Full report: Stock Market Crash 2015 If US Dollar Is Not Defended

[Stock Trading Guru]

Stock market prediction for week of January 24 2014 with trade ideas and trends.

Full report: Prediction For Week of January 26 2015

[Stock Trading Guru]

US Retail Sales plunged and that's important because...

Much of the mainstream financial media has been running stories that the drop in the price of oil was good for retail sales and consumer spending. That thesis is NOT supported by facts.

Oil has been falling since July and started picking up its descent in September. We have had plenty of time, and data, to see the drop in oil start to show up in Retail Sales. Not only did it not show up in the US Retail Sales report last week, it actually fell by the most in a year! I talk more about the drop in retail sales in the video below. This is an excerpt from the full weekly Saturday show that airs on YouTube.

Full weekly Saturday show is here: Stock Market Prediction News Week of January 19 2015

[Stock Trading Guru]

The event with the greatest probability of moving markets next week, in my opinion, is the ECB Announcement on January 22, 2015.

[Stock Trading Guru]

https://www.guerillastocktrading.com/stock-market/stock-market-prediction-week-january-19-2015/

[Stock Trading Guru]