NYMEX Holdings, Inc. (NMX)

[danno555]

Right on!

[bigmoneyyyyyyyyy]

Time for a reversal on this thing, shares were diluted, should be on our way back up

[danno555]

Well let's getting going on Nemaska Lithium...research it...it's gonna be amazing!

[change-for-a-buck]

This use to be the NYmex holding ,
Made some nice $$ when it went public ...


The New York Mercantile Exchange is a commodity futures exchange owned and operated by CME Group of Chicago. NYMEX is located at One North End Avenue in Brookfield Place in the Battery Park City section of Manhattan, New York City.

[danno555]

Nmx in canada

[change-for-a-buck]

What's that ?

[danno555]

Nemaska Lithium?

[change-for-a-buck]

Ok let's do it

[danno555]

Let's get this board chatting again!

[change-for-a-buck]

skills ??
what skills ??
you dont have any
unless bitting your toe nails counts as one ....

[goofyfoot]

I missed NMX at the high yesterday, but I settled for $124.67 today to sell the rest of my NMX position. Just getting a bad feeling, I guess, mainly because I think I'm going to miss the boat with my money tied up here, while MRVL goes up. So, I bought a bunch of MRVL. I figure it's about 1/6th the price of NMX, so if it goes up a dollar, it's like NMX going up six. By some accounts, it's going to break big in the next few months. I hope.

Jeez, I really hope so, this time!

[teraflop]

NYX & NDAQ may be the play today. You may not have to worry about that dollar you mentioned. Pre-market NYX is doing very well on Euronext/NYSE merger news. Good luck, hope you can ride a winner!

And we'll see whether the other exchanges we care about (NMX, BOT, CME, NDAQ) rise in sympathy.

Long & strong.

[teraflop]

Sorry to hear what happened, Fishsurfer.

In Monday's move (Dec 4th) we moved like CME and GOOG, big changes in stock price for the day.

Friend of mine went short the market last week. I was tempted too but he acted and is now hurting though I still agree with the sentiment on the market in general. But nothing has changed with respect to NMX, I still think this has good potential. When I run its ratios (ROA, ROE, etc) against its peers I don't see much that jumps out wrong.

Unlike competitors in trucking or air travel, in my opinion, exchanges aren't sufficiently exposed to their markets. There's room for growth and currently it's not a zero-sum game (i.e., competition between LME & NMX & BOT = more products + more revenue + profit for each one, not less. For now).

Thanks for the link, in exchange, here's one. This chap I follow and read regularly: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2006/12/dennis_gartmans.html

Long & strong.

[goofyfoot]

It was a good day!

Didn't see this coming, though. Sold about half of my position on Friday, for an average of $117.50/share. Wish I would have waited, because I turned around and bought NYX with the proceeds, almost immediately. NYX went down today, over a dollar from where I bought it. Damnit.

I had heard that December 1st was the last day that you could claim a loss on stock trades on your tax return. Wasn't sure if this was true, and even did some research, but it really wasn't clear if this was the case. Still, I went ahead and sold. And bought.

Wish I had a crystal ball, but with the Dutch Bourse voting to merge with NYX on the 19th, so maybe it'll all work out.

I did find this, though (shhhh!): http://agoros.com

[teraflop]

Great move today. Time to re-join the big boys. We may need to get used to $8 moves with plus signs in front of them.

Long & strong.

[teraflop]

I'll check the MRVL board, thanks for the tip on Syndicate Two. I'm actually bearish on the market in general, subject to any changes of course because its performance has astounded many the past 2 months. So I'll be interested in hearing the justification on the NASDAQ and QQQQ rising.

I re-ran the regression of NDAQ versus the S&P, sadly the slope of the regression line from July 5th to yesterday is 0.12136 with a correlation of only 0.4978 so the relationship is very weak. I also don't see, from a fundamentals standpoint, the linkage. However, we will benefit from exchanges moving upward, I've no doubt about it, but just have not much statistical evidence to rely on.

Good luck to all, NMX seems to be good for traders at least, volatility is good for them.

Long & strong.

[goofyfoot]

Another painful day for NMX, today. Ugh.

I see where you are going with those correlations, and like you say, they do seem to be temporary. On the InvestorsHub MRVL board, the moderator is this guy Syndicate Two, who says that the NASDAQ and the QQQQ are going to rise over the next next year. S2 is a fairly knowledgeable investor/economist (I think), although, well, he's where I got that "cheerleading" thing from.

Now, you were talking about index stock prices and not composite index prices. But, if the NAS gains another couple hundred points over the next six months, and NMX still loosely follows NDAQ, well, maybe NMX will go up, too?

I'm grabbing at straws here, because the temptation to sell here is pretty great. I could take my losses and buy, well, I really don't even know, at this point. If I had been a real risk taker, I would have sold all of my NMX positions, and bought NYX this morning. I'd be up almost $5/share, although proportionately, I'd still be down a whole lot. Still, I think NYX was just making up for a couple of bad days, so it probably won't continue.

I've just never been so disappointed with a stock in my life. After all the hype and the IPO being branded the best IPO of the year and all that, man, this is pretty harsh!

[teraflop]

Thoughts, ideas, and cheerleading...ok let's go.

My time horizon is longer on NMX and I am in pain on this trade so can feel for your own pain. I hate dead money but sometimes you get a pleasant surprise if you can afford to wait.

That being said, the risk to NMX as a stock is fund pullouts prior to the New Year. However, it still is in a solid business with, yes, tough competition, but NYMEX is a dominant player.

For the record, I ran some correlation matrices to see where we may be going. Based on the statistics (lies, more lies, etc), NMX only really correlated with the NDAQ since November 17th (IPO day) and NDAQ's own correlation with the S&P 500 was very low over the same period. It wasn't correlated with the other exchanges we compare it to. In the longer-term, the 1-year correlations show that the exchanges are very little correlated with the S&P and as a group they're not very correlated either. So I think NMX should still be valued on its own merits and its own story.

Here's the matrix for Nov 17, 2006-Nov 29, 2006:
NYX, NDAQ, CME, ICE, NMX, S&P
NYX : 1.0
NDAQ: .56, 1.0
CME : .64, .32, 1.0
ICE : .71, .27, .53, 1.0
NMX : .37, .75, .27, .25, 1.0
S&P : .25, .21, .72, .05, .22, 1.0

Here's the matrix for Dec 30, 2006-Nov 29, 2006:
NYX, NDAQ, CME, ICE, S&P
NYX : 1.0
NDAQ: .44, 1.0
CME : .25, .36, 1.0
ICE : .26, .31, .35, 1.0

S&P : .34, .53, .45, .34, 1.0

By taking the differences you can get an idea of where we are relative to peer movements based on correlations. Correlations change over time so this is subject to periodic review. But you can see where spikes in correlation (NMX-NDAQ, CME-S&P, and ICE-S&P) are typically temporary.

Long & strong

[goofyfoot]

Tera, I'm wondering where we go from here. On the Yahoo boards, for NYX, CME, BOT, etc., it's been said that today, for NMX, was just the market makers playing around. NMX seems linked to NYX, which was downgraded by JP Morgan today.

I think you're right, NMX is kind of trapped into following the other exchanges.

I guess a lot of people had that "irrational exuberance" that Greenspan is famous for saying, when they bought NMX. Myself included. It's easy to look back and say, damn, why did I do this? But, maybe I'm just thinking about this one in terms that are too short. I can't afford to sell, because I made that mistake in May. I lost a great deal in May, when the market took a dump. Sold in a panic (yeah, I know), and just when I had almost recouped my losses by making a dollar here and two dollars there, I buy NMX!

Thoughts? Ideas? Cheerleading?

[GnomeOfZurich]

118.00 that hurts your creditablity, I know what I'm talking about and when the options are avaiable we will make money on it. Once again your wrong and I know what i'm talking about. Don't hate on my skills. I don't see it going below 100 but i could be wrong.

[teraflop]

Prudential's caution will make sense when the momentum falls off on this, and other exchange-related holdings. While I agree that there is competition, to me NYMEX is still a point of reference. Some contracts on other exchanges price directly off of NYMEX, for example.

While I forsee competition, I also forsee product development in commodities that we've not seen before, and they don't just generate fees for revenue but lower barriers to entry to bring market participants into the commodities market.

That all being said, I'm going to ride through any shake in anticipation of riding through this painful dip. We have no correlation numbers (which would be poisoned by IPO/momo action anyway) to work with but I suspect we'll be pained by correlations with other exchanges for more than 30 days. But CME is poorly correlated with the S&P (43% over 365 days on daily moves) and ICE is even less so (35%) so it shouldn't be all bad during a market correction.

Long & strong.

[goofyfoot]

I hope you're right. This pullback seems kind of severe, due to (maybe) Prudential's idea that there's too much competition in the exchanges, and then that damned low price target of $112.

Granted the market sold off today, but what are the odds of NMX going up to, say, $139 in the next 30 days?

Fish

[teraflop]

NMX-watch:

November 21st & 22nd NYMEX announced contract specs for RBOB Gasoline (Reformulated Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending) options and swap futures that will begin trading Nov 26th. Included on the list of contracts are those useful for pretty granular hedging around refining assets and possible arbitrage opportunities to play EIA petroleum inventory reports (see this for an example: http://www.cattlenetwork.com/content.asp?contentid=32346). See the Nymex website for 2006 News Releases for info if interested.

What I forsee is the constant development of a depth of commodity-related products, useful for a variety of participants, designed to fuel NYMEX's revenue growth.

Long & strong.

[goldrusher]

I got lucky also. On opening day, I put in a bid at 130 through
ameritrade, but got it for 120. Eleven minutes later I sold for
148 and bought back yesterday at 130 and will go long now. The
other exchanges that went public in 2002 and 2003 have gone
bonkers with the SP. I just hope NMX can do one fourth as well.

cheers

PS Guinness is good for you

[teraflop]

Nice finish today.

8K Filed today regarding approval of COMEX transaction:

Item 8.01. Other Events

On November 20, 2006, the members of Commodity Exchange, Inc. ("COMEX") a subsidiary of NYMEX Holdings, Inc. (the "Company") voted, at a COMEX special meeting, to approve the COMEX transaction, which among other things, will expand the ability of the Company to provide COMEX electronic trading privileges to third parties, as well as to list all COMEX contracts for side by side trading in exchange for 8,400 shares of Company common stock. More than 98% of the shares voted in connection with this meeting were voted in favor of the deal. On October 31, 2006, the Company's stockholders voted to approve the COMEX transaction.

Item 9.01. Financial Statements and Exhibits

(d) Exhibit

99.1. Press Release, dated November 20, 2006, issued by NYMEX Holdings, Inc.

[change-for-a-buck]

seats are going for record levels
smart money is not being thrown here for losses
imo you are wrong
also i think we stay in this range for a while
then we take off
.
what makes me like this stock even more
is people like you saying it will fall
so many people think we go lower
imo that means the opposite
glty

[GnomeOfZurich]

Think about it. 7% of their shares outstanding went public. When the other 93% sell the stock its going below the ipo price. Look at the charts of these IPO's in the same industry. ICE, CME. Not all 93% are going to sell. It opened on its debut at 122.00. If 7% sell, the stock will hit its ipo price. Stay away from it. ALso you can't join NMX holding without paying millions of dollars to become a seat holder and trade whenever and whereever you want.

[change-for-a-buck]

i also bought efut at 8 bux though yahoo finance doesnt show
a low of that , it used to be some other co. symbol
i think the co. came public at 6
i got in at 8
sold at 12
and i though i was KING lol
sold way to early ...:(
my favorite stocks that i have been playing are IAAC GROW
great long term
buy on dips
and you are sure to cash in ...glty

[teraflop]

Wow, excellent job on your entry. I do believe it.

I did that with EFUT (am now out) but my entry on NMX wasn't great however since my time-range is medium- to long-term, I don't think it matters. Consolidation of exchanges, unlike in other industries (auto, airlines) seems to be good for longs.

Long & strong.

[change-for-a-buck]

looking good today
i got in at the bottom
some shares at 120 (believe it or not )
and then some at 125
gonna make some serious money if we hold long

[teraflop]

This IPO released during the Fall-Winter 2006 market run which surprised many, has benefited other exchanges as well: NYX, CME, and ICE. The question is when (or if) will big holders bail and will it be before any possible buying binges could start? The world loves exchanges these days and even though someone would the commodity bull run is tired and therefore may adversely affect commodities trading volume on NYMEX, the bet is on that it won't.

Long & strong.