Financial Trends of the 21st Century

[The Daily Tape]

I did a rundown on a few coal and steel companies that I think our hot on my blog listed in the signature.

[MrT1955]

How to Invest in Nanotechnology

See PXN.

http://yahoo.businessweek.com/investor/content/apr2006/pi20060417_587999.htm

[MrT1955]

Greenspan warning

Mr Greenspan also warned of a potential fall in global asset prices, stressing that the ample liquidity currently in the financial system appeared to be an “abnormal situation” and could not last forever.

He said the source of this liquidity was the market value of assets worldwide, which had been rising faster than nominal gross domestic product globally due to a decline in real long-term interest rates and a significant fall in real equity premiums.

“A good part of this expansion is a direct function of the decline in real equity premiums. That cannot go on indefinitely,” he said.

“I don’t know when the liquidity is going to decline but I am reasonably certain that what we’re looking at is an abnormal situation.”

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/778d9570-c9e5-11da-852f-0000779e2340.html

[Blackbelt1]

Ultra-small batteries powered by viruses
MIT researchers claim dramatic performance increases

=====================================
MrT's NOTE: For trends in the 21st century, think way outside the box. Our assumptions concerning fuel sources, technologies, and what is and is not possible will probably be as wrong as the judgements that human beings will never fly. If this is true, then how will we ever discover a significant trend before it has unfolded more than 50 percent? Keep the faith. It is more possible than you realize, although in the short run it appears difficult. The work we do here is designed to pay off months from now.
=====================================

Iain Thomson, vnunet.com 07 Apr 2006
http://www.vnunet.com/vnunet/news/2153668/viruses-assemble-ultra-small

Researchers at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) are using viruses to create tiny batteries that can store up to three times as much energy as conventional power systems.

The team, led by MIT professors Angela Belcher, Paula Hammond and Yet-Ming Chiang, genetically modified a virus so that it attracts cobalt oxide and gold, and assembled the metals into ultra-thin wires just six nanometres in diameter.

The viruses can be cloned to assemble lithium batteries ranging in size from a grain of rice to a full-sized product.

"Once we have altered the genes of the virus to grow the electrode material, we can easily clone millions of identical copies of the virus to use in assembling our batteries," said Professor Belcher.

"For the metal oxide we chose cobalt oxide because it has very good specific capacity, which will produce batteries with high energy density.

"This allows it to store two or three times more energy for its size and weight compared to previous battery electrode materials. And adding the gold further increased the wires' energy density."

Furthermore the viruses do not need a special environment and the reaction takes place at room temperature, lowering the production costs of any virus assembly system.

Experts estimate that current battery technology performance improvements will be limited to around eight per cent a year, but this new technology could lead to a dramatic improvement in these figures.

The energy density of current batteries is a major sticking point in the development of long lasting laptops and electric cars.

[thescientist]

No prob MrT1955, Im busy enjoying this run on gold, I really dont know what can stop this momentum (high oil and gold prices) the only thing that can knock this down a peg is maybe a major scandal (like Bre X had in the late 80s)maybe then investors will be a bit more weary

[MrT1955]

Thanks Mr. Scientist for your thoughts. I'm looking for mega-trends, micro-trends, and fad trends. Let's keep building our collection of eyes and minds. Will comment on some of your ideas when I have time.

T.

[thescientist]

Great idea for a board, I guess we cant touch on this topic without mentioning China, will they be the dominant superpowers by the end of the century???

my opinion is tis, oil prices and commodities are still gonna go up as more and more countries will begin to tie their currency to the gold,

because of China loose and easy business practices I think we will see a shift away from law i.e. compliance and bureacratic self regulating agencies that thwart business and keep it mucked down in paperwork, and legal nonsense and technicalities i.e environment protection agency, sec etc etc, they will still be there but in order to compete the rules will be laxed because it will be atrade war and getting business at all costs will be the name of the game

market trends

oil and gold of course

manufacutring will come back to North America as fuel prices will be so high that it wont make sense to ship goods off to China to be made

the end of Suburb life as we know it and a change to more centralized approach to how towns and cities are built

fresh water will be a commodity as precious as oil is now

Nano tech companies

Anti aging medical companies (just bought one today AAGM)

in short a world prosperous by trade but an amoral approach to anything and everything in business in order to compete with China, for example see all the regulation companies have to put up with to be public..... i.e in order to use public money to grow, they are under close watch by the SEC etc well this will diminish in order to compete with the outflow o US companies going to list in the Asian markets because more money can be raised there and less comliance hoops to go through than in the US

[MrT1955]

Welcome Roborob. Looking forward to your insights. My intention is to build a board with a thousand eyes scanning the world for the best possibilities. On an ongoing basis I will be creating and re-creating top 10 and top 20 trend and investment lists, using ideas published here.

My thought is to trade opportunities appearing here and now, while at the same time, planning future investments. In my experience, the best opportunities begin to emerge from the fog of possibilities, set up over a period of weeks and months, and then launch from major cycle lows.

The weakness of most trading boards is a focus on the stocks running right now--often just after they have reached their peaks. The media have a similar blind spot, repeatedly celebrating trends that are already over.

The art of spotting trends just as they are beginning to hatch fascinates me--first because it is so seemingly difficult and second because I have seen it done so reliably so often.

I will never forget the day John Helms told my brother and I that Toyota was going to flood the U.S. with cars. We looked at each other and laughed because Toyota seemed like no threat at the time--the early 1970s.

In 2001, many people predicted the bull market in gold and precious metals, and in 2002 and 2003, Jim Rogers and many others correctly called the bull market in commodities.

My intention is to process the many competing trends and counter-trends to develop a cohesive picture of the current spirit of the times and to tie the identified trends to outstanding investment vehicles.

Once again, welcome, and stay tuned.

Mr. T

[Roborob]

Greetings to all

I look forward to the discussion. Mr T, I think you're right about the trends you name. One of the huge ones is the insatiable demand for commodities by China and India.

We see this already in the incredible price increases for strategic metals, such as molybdenum, used to make moly steel for drill bits and mining devices. Every moly steel producer in the world is completely maxed out right now and most will need to expand. Look at the prices for titanium, copper, zinc etc to rise as well.

Most of the world's steel, coal, aluminum etc. is headed for China and prices will rise.

The shift from value buyers to VALUES buyers is evident in the growth of organic and natural food stocks such as Hansens and Whole Foods. Alternative energy is headed up too.

It is going to be a rocking year in some sectors.

[MrT1955]

Broad Strokes
==============

Here are some of the trends that will be shaping our world. Will refine these ideas and begin linking them to investment opportunities as we go.

1. Peak oil and the transition to alternative energy
2. The retirement of the baby boom generation
3. The popping of the debt bubble. Right now the trend is still up.
4. Trading and investing automation
5. Automation competing with human workers
6. Biotechnology
7. Economic expansion in China, India, and third-world countries
8. Terrorism, anti-terrorism, security
9. Precious metals
10. Competition for commodities, basic materials of all kinds

Many of the above are related and interrelated in interesting and intricate ways. Many of the above themes suggest insecurity, and this has led to the rise in precious metals. Biotechnology and terrorism are connected and will lead to an increased need for sophisticated detection systems. The bull market in commodities is directly linked to the economic expansion of third-world countries.

Exploring these ideas and linking them to investment opportunities may seem difficult. What I have noticed, however, is that every time I begin to focus in on this subject, I am able to discern the next major trends with extraordinary accuracy. I want to begin laying out some principles for doing this, so that we can work together and do it better than ever before.

Here is the first principle: In any 5- or 10-year year period, civilization is always giving birth to the next big thing. There is always a dominant theme emerging with dozens of smaller trends--related and unrelated. The way to capitalize on this principle is to pay attention to what really grabs your attention. What do you really want now? What do young people really want now? What are your friends and neighbors excited about? What is making the leading technology magazines buzz? Even if it is nothing, that's a message, a signal concerning the spirit of the times. Pay attention to any surprising twists to your answers. In the 1980s and 90s, what we really wanted was a computer and an internet connection. What is it now? Security? Economic security? New ways of earning a living? Vehicles powered by alternative fuels?

Here is a second principle: Certain trends are inexorable, inevitable, relentless, unstoppable. These are the major trends. Sometimes they are so big and obvious we miss them. An example would be the rise of the automobile--and everything related--during the 20th century. The economic consequences of China and India fit this category. The aging of the baby boom generation also does.

Here is the third and most important principle: Trends that make great investments are verifiable. Their charts tell a story. They speak the language of success even before they have fully unfolded. The cup-and-handle chart is just one example. If all you did was look for great cupping or otherwise bullish long-term charts, and report your findings here, this board would become enormously valuable.

T.

[MrT1955]

And Doug, you write so fast it is difficult to catch your meaning, but I sense something is there. What exactly is the can't-miss opportunity? Does it relate to a particular sector? Does it relate to stocks such as CME, ISE, OXPS, TRAD? Can you comment on any of these?

Thanks.

T.

[Doug Hauser]

Look I move speed of sound so no read your pleasing I'm sure intro, but didjah catch global trading and control of the global financial markets as a cant miss next 100 years.

I cant say name but I develop global internet trading platform Wall Street and very pleased at our ramping vols. As evidence. Oh yeah you cant just do this you have major Barriers to Entry here. Like seats on every stinkin bourse thruout world as a strter.

[MrT1955]

A Request: If you know someone interested in trends, knowledgeable about a particular industry, or an avid reader of business newspapers who would enjoy contributing to this site, please extend a personal invitation.

Particularly welcome would be the following:

* Technology specialists
* Oil industry specialists
* Commodity experts--general or specific (copper, coal, minerals)
* Precious metal experts
* Anyone in touch with pop trends
* Economists with real insight into practical consequences of the trade deficit, declining dollar, or rising US debts.

Thanks in advance.

Mr. T

[MrT1955]

Top 20 Trends Most Likely to
Make Great Investments
Over the Next 3 Years
=================================

I will begin by asking for ideas to include in this ongoing list. Every week I will be publishing and updating this list.

Great ideas will be those that tie directly to investment vehicles. For example, talking about the problem of the trade deficit becomes a great idea only if you can tie it directly to an investment strategy.

Great investments strategies always have a signature of success that will confirm it. For example, in 2002, a long-term chart of gold had a cup-and-handle formation--one of the success clues. When it broke out, it was confirmed.

Thanks for participating.

MrT