CHONG2 (CHONG2)

[chichi2]

The 9 Major Sectors - Weekly charts followed by Daily

Sectors are in Alphametical Order[B]

MONTHLY CHARTS











WEEKLY CHARTS









DAILY CHARTS

[chichi2]

TOL Long – This one needs a high volume breakout through 34.54 to trigger the daily cup and handle breakout. Longs trigger on pullbacks to 33.60-33.40 with a 33.18 trail stop for upside initially to 34.30-.34.60 and secondary breakout target near 36-37 area.

JBL Long – JBL forms a daily market structure low (MSL) above 19.70. Long trigger at 19.72 with a 19.38 trail stop for a tightening back to the 20.18 daily 15pd ma, then 20.35-20.60 weekly 50/5 period moving averages.

Key resistances to short tests/long breakout: WFM 56.50, BCOV 13.50, M 52.50

Key supports to long tests/short breakdowns: ARO 9.90, M 50.50

[chichi2]

Daily_&_Intra-Day_Charts_for: SPY,QQQ,DIA,GLD,SLV


DAILY for 6 Months






INTRA-DAY for 4 Days

[chichi2]

ffff

" Forecast for Future " (03/10/2013)


$SPX Loves New Flag, approaching its Flag Top




Note: the Breakout of this Huge Daily Interval Triangle



Note: the Breakout Upward of this Monthly Interval Triangle.
My Forecast is Coming to Pass

Once the old High is Reached there will be a Test
toward the Breakout of the Large Triange
Chichi2 does not expect it to be Breached.



-------------------------------

For "9 Major Sector" Daily and 10min charts click on http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=36620316
warning, you must be in very studious mood to follow charts on URL portion

Daily 3 mon "Major Sectors" sequenced XLY,XLF,XLI,XLV,XLB,XLP,XLE,XLK,XLU 11/25
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=81789930

==================================================
Below are Three Different types of Forecasters
==================================================

By Sentient Trader, uses Hurst Cycles
Weekly ST Outlook
http://sentienttrader.com/st-outlook/
USD Index Long Term Cycles 12/25/2012
http://sentienttrader.com/hurst-trading-room/blog/usd-index-long-term-cycles/

By Rai Time and Cycles
http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/

By Raymond James Brokerage
By Art Huprich
Http://raymondjames.com/technical_commentary.asp
By Jeffrey Saut
http://raymondjames.com/inv_strat.htm
===================================================

DeMark Sees S&P 500 Falling 5.5% After Peak Near 1,500
See Video
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=83290762

Chichi2 is Expecting Temp Top near $SPX Old High of 1576 See Chart

[chichi2]

10 Themes for 2013
Now that we've reviewed the shallowness that characterized market discourse last year, let's move on to the 10 big themes I've observed in 2012, all of which are poised to remain robust well into 2013.
1. The Housing Resurgence

First, and predominant, is the return of housing as a major driver to the U.S. economy. A lot of different people will give you a lot of different estimates as to how impactful housing is on the U.S. economy. To that I say: If I were an economics professor, I would be all over trying to figure out that correlation. But I am not. I am a stock-picker, and all I care about is what this means to the stocks in the sector -- and, for them, this recovery has been nothing short of amazing.

We had the homebuilders, led by Pulte (PHM) Lennar (LEN) and Toll Brothers (TOL). We had the housing-related retailers -- Home Depot (HD), Williams-Sonoma (WSM), Pier 1 (PIR) and Lowe's (LOW). We had the building-products companies -- Louisiana-Pacific (LPX), Weyerhaeuser (WY), Rayonier (RYN), Plum Creek Timber (PCL), USG (USG) and Owens Corning (OC). We had the suppliers, like Whirlpool (WHR), Newell Rubbermaid (NWL), Masco (MAS) and Mohawk (MHK). All of these will also be helped by the eventual rebuild that must happen in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy -- which, while not as big as that following Katrina, will help spur the second quarter's gross domestic product growth.

Then you have ancillary plays from new-household formation -- companies like Discovery Communications (DISCA), Time Warner (TWX) and Comcast (CMCSA) -- or from road-building, such as Vulcan Materials (VMC). Finally you have the stealth housing play, Berkshire-Hathaway (BRK.A),which really took off in the fourth quarter because it also participated in the next theme, insurance.

Can this move continue? How many times have we heard that question? How many times has it been answered negatively? How many times have we heard that it is only a matter of time before the Federal Reserve turns off the juice, even though Chairman Ben Bernanke just told you last month that he's going to keep money easy until unemployment reaches 6.5%?

Here's why I am not concerned. During the sector's heyday, homes were being built at a rate of about 1.5 million a year. OK, maybe that's not sustainable. But it dropped to 400,000 a couple of years ago, back to levels of the 1950s, when the U.S. had half as many people as it does today. Talk about unsustainable. That's ridiculous. Of course, the bears told us it didn't matter, given the shadow inventory of homes owned by banks.

But, in about a year's time, a combination of factors ate through that shadow inventory once pricing came back: banks working with underwater lenders, a pro-homeowner Washington and the annual destruction of homes through fire and flood. The rally in the bank stocks tells you fears about the underwater owners will not be realized. Those homes are roaring back in value, too -- and they are still good, affordable buys!

That's especially so given these low rates and high rents. I think that, unless you are in the real estate market, as I am, you have no idea how ridiculously high rents are. It is still quite difficult to get a loan to buy a place. But, as housing goes up in value, you will see the major banks lend again -- just as Bank of America (BAC) CEO Brian Moynihan told you would happen last Friday.

That's why I think we have multiple years -- not one year, but multiple years -- of housing strength ahead of us. This remains the go-to group for 2013, and Washington's debt-ceiling talk will be terrific for opportunities to buy.

2. The Insurance Comeback

This insurance group performed remarkably well in 2012, be it in Genworth (GNW) or Travelers (TRV) or Hartford (HIG), Allstate (ALL), Berkshire-Hathaway or AIG (AIG).

I think several things are at work here. First, there have been enough catastrophes out there to take out a lot of capacity, and insurance rates are going up. Second, the group's just done nothing for ages, and it is way behind the broad market. Finally, and most important, the asset side has come back to life with a vengeance. These companies owned a ton of miserable, awful housing-related paper -- and, as housing increases in value, this paper's coming back.

To me, AIG is the best way to play it, because this company has pretty much everything that had been negative, but is now good.

3. Ne'er-Do-Well Banks Recuperate

A third theme is right there with the insurance companies: the banks. I think people don't understand that this group is so far behind the market that we tend to think that it is never coming back -- at least if you think about the book values.

But something happened in this market in the fourth quarter: The book value started to come to relevance as a measure of worth. If that's the case, you're going to see some remarkable moves in everything from Regions (RF), First Horizon (FHN) and Zions (ZION) to Morgan Stanley (MS) and Goldman Sachs (GS), to Bank of America and Citigroup (C). These are the companies for which the book value had been suspect -- and it may no longer be suspect amid recovery in the kind of paper that is also owned by the insurers.

I know that you could argue I am leaving out the best three -- Wells Fargo (WFC), U.S. Bancorp (USB) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) -- all of which I like. But the theme here is not "best of breed," which is more of an evergreen concept. The theme is the cyclical recovery of the portfolios of the ne'er-do-well banks. I wouldn't overlook Capitol One (COF), either, because its credit-card business is hot. Also recall its purchase, for very little money, of the ING Direct business from ING Group (ING) -- a business that is humming.

4. Ascending Autos

The fourth rising tide? Autos. This group has been tough, because we've been in an American-related renaissance as auto production in the Great Recession has dropped almost 40%. We just can't talk enough about that decline in build, as well, which is almost as shattering as the plunge in housing starts. We just didn't see it in the stocks because the major players, Ford (F) and General Motors (GM), are huge international companies and they were being pulled back by Europe and even China.

In 2013, China stands to be a tailwind and Europe will be cordoned. That means Ford and GM are going to be huge stocks.

They should be terrific -- particularly Ford, which keeps refinancing and refinancing, and just refinanced a gigantic piece of paper last week. No one even notices anymore. They should. They will when the company reports. Meanwhile, GM has bought a big piece of the U.S. government's stake, which is going to set up this stock for a terrific 2013. I would buy both.

The ancillary auto plays make sense here, too -- like Goodyear (GT), Cooper Tire (CTB) and CarMax (KMX). These shares all rise with auto builds, which I think could be up to 16 million this year. The consolidation in rental cars, coupled with destruction from Superstorm Sandy, will mean that Hertz (HTZ) and Avis Budget (CAR) should go still higher as a huge wave of consolidation sweeps over the group.

5. The U.S. Energy Revolution

When you speak of big themes, you have to be focusing on the domestic revolution in energy, my fifth focus group. We in the U.S. have so much of it, and so much natural gas in particular, that this will be a multiyear game-changer. The principal winners are the companies that use natural-gas-related chemicals as a feedstock -- namely, Dow Chemical (DOW), Westlake (WLK), Eastman (EMN), PPG (PPG) and LyondellBasell (LYB) (even if the last company's headquarters are located overseas).

Right now, only Dow has really done much to capitalize off the cheap energy. It's almost as if the other companies don't really believe natural gas will stay down. But I believe that, in 2013, they will start building the plants needed to take advantage of the inexpensive food stock. For those who think this play is chimerical -- sorry, but the U.S. is burning off or flaring more natural gas than we use, and that's maybe all you need to know. The companies that build the most capacity here are the ones that will make the most money.

The refiners -- HollyFrontier (HFC), Valero (VLO) and Phillips 66 (PSX) -- are also huge beneficiaries of the new finds. Their costs are so low and their prices are still, outrageously, linked to the much-higher price coming from overseas. Good for them; bad for us.

Furthermore, it's an open secret that the U.S. has too much crude oil -- not just natural gas -- even as we continue, as a nation, to import it. Because of a weird mismatch between U.S. oil-refining capacity and the new kind of crude, light sweet from the Bakken and Eagleford, we will have to export crude starting next year. That's right. The U.S. will need to export natural gas because we'll have no place to put it -- that's what Cheniere Energy (LNG) will do -- and we'll need to export oil because we don't have the refining capacity to use it.

If we had an actual energy policy, we could straighten this out. We don't. So we will just have to make money off of it until we do.

On the production-and-drilling side, there are very few actual winners in the U.S. because of the twin gluts. The oil drillers are all very hard to own. That's with the exception of Ensco (ESV), which is purely offshore, where there's tremendous amount of activity because of the higher price of crude vs. nat gas. But the nat gas drilling market, itself, is in the doldrums because of the $3-per-MMBtu price tag for the fuel, and the surfeit of storage place, and the lack of surface vehicle or chemical use.

The only oil company with tremendous growth prospects is EOG (EOG), which has substantial positions in the two biggest shales, the Bakken and the Eagle Ford. It's the only one I would buy up here. The natural gas company I like is Southwestern (SWN). But I am early to like it, unless a takeover or the cessation in nat gas drilling gives you a marginally higher price for it.

6. China's Return

My sixth theme is the return of China. You saw this come up literally right at the end of 2012, when Cummins (CMI) began coming back and Caterpillar (CAT) put in a bottom and Emerson (EMR) started to rally. Joy Global (JOY) is the one to watch here, as electric use is accelerating in China -- which means more coal use, which means more coal mining, which means better orders for this very inexpensive stock. The best way to play China, alas, is China, with the iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (FXI). The ETF comprises a very big position for my charitable trust at Action Alerts PLUS.

7. The Aerospace Recovery

The seventh theme has to be the amazing aerospace recovery. What I find incredible about this one is that the companies involved -- mainly Boeing (BA), Honeywell (HON) and United Technologies (UTX) --have big defense businesses, yet these stocks didn't even blink when defense cuts were standing right in front of them. These three, plus Precision Castparts (PCP), are the obvious plays. United Tech is perhaps the one with the most upside potential, now that it has bought Goodrich.

You have to own one of these. When the risk-off crowd swarms, and when the sell-everything-because-of-Washington group grabs the mike, think aerospace.

8. The 4G Build-Out

I wish I could be more bullish on tech, but way too much of it is still personal-computer-centric, and I don't think this will be the year of the PC. -- nor next year, for that matter.

However, it will be the year of the 4G build-out. Unfortunately, there are very few ways to play this beyond the continual theme of the towers -- American Tower (AMT), Crown Castle (CCI) and SBA Communications (SBAC). Still, lately we've seen some optical plays do well, and I am encouraged by the continued growth of video. Two I am watching and willing to pounce on are JDS Uniphase (JDSU) for fiber and fiber testing, and Akamai (AKAM) for video on demand. Lots of people want to play the component companies for cell phones. Too hard for me. Learned that lesson.

As for as the rest of tech? Sure, I suspect we will see money continue to come in to Facebook (FB) and Google (GOOG), but they are battlegrounds. Apple (AAPL) remains a hold, and so does Amazon (AMZN). I wish I could be more enthusiastic, but when you are, you get your head cut off for it.

What I like about my themes is that they can be bought on weakness. However, the weakness that could bring down a company like Google or Apple or Amazon or Facebook is a type of weakness that has to be studied and examined, and is distinctly company-specific, and that's what I am trying to avoid by focusing on themes and not individual stocks.

9. The Government Made Me Do It

My ninth theme? I'm calling it "the government made me do it." These are stocks that are related to the costs of the new healthcare system that kicks in next year, and the chits are already being played. The temporary-staffing companies, like Robert Half (RHI), Manpower (MAN) and Insperity (NSP) were red-hot coming into the year, and I think they will stay that way. That's because temporary staffing is a way to beat the new taxes businesses might have to pay because of the government mandates.

The hospitals also work -- notably Tenet Healthcare (THC) but also Community Health Systems (CYH) -- because they're doing much better under the Affordable Care Act. Those are winners and will remain winners, because the law pretty much mandates that they have to be.

10. Don't Just Stand There. Do Something.

Final theme? I am calling it the "Don't just stand there, do something" theme. I am seeing the companies that buy other companies, and the companies that split themselves up into separately traded parts, really bring out a lot of value. When PVH (PVH) bought Warnaco to create a Calvin Klein house of brands, shares vaulted much higher and never came back. After Hormel's (HRL) deal to pick up Skippy, the stock immediately gained altitude and didn't surrender it. ConAgra's (CAG) deal to buy Ralcorp (RAH), and Eaton's (ETN) purchase of Cooper? These were all tremendous moves. As were the break-ups of MeadWestvaco (MWV), Abbott (ABT), Marathon Oil (MRO), ConocoPhillips (COP) and Kraft (KFT).

All of these deals brought instant valuation hikes. They are a reminder that when companies sit there and wait for things to get better, they miss the best opportunities. I believe we are at the infancy of a new merger wave because of all of the cash on the balance sheets -- as well as a new break-up wave, because so much value has been created from those that have already done so.

This is a market desperate for conviction -- desperate to find stocks that can be bought on weakness without worry about Washington. But when that weakness comes, more people leave stocks than return to them. I hope this list helps to remind you what worked in 2012 under those circumstances, and which I believe could work again in 2013.

[chichi2]

This theoretical model is based on Sam Stovall's S&P's Guide to Sector Rotation and states that different sectors are stronger at different points in the economic cycle. The graph above shows these relationships and the order in which the various sectors should get a boost from the economy. The Market Cycle preceeds the Economic Cycle because investors try to anticipate economic effects.

 
 Stage:                 Full Recession   Early Recovery   Full Recovery    Early Recession  
 Consumer Expectations: Reviving         Rising           Declining        Falling Sharply  
 Industrial Production: Bottoming Out    Rising           Flat             Falling  
 Interest Rates:        Falling          Bottoming Out    Rising Rapidly   Peaking  
 Yield Curve:           Normal           Normal (Steep)   Flattening Out   Flat/Inverted  
 

[chichi2]

u of m BB

Thu, Jan 3

@

Northwestern

7:00 PM ET

Conversation| Tickets



Sun, Jan 6

vs

Iowa

12:00 PM ET Big Ten Network

Conversation| Tickets



Wed, Jan 9

vs

Nebraska

7:00 PM ET Big Ten Network

Conversation| Tickets



Sun, Jan 13

@

#8 Ohio State

TBD CBS

Conversation| Tickets



Thu, Jan 17

@

#9 Minnesota

7:00 PM ET

Conversation| Tickets



Thu, Jan 24

vs

Purdue

7:00 PM ET

Conversation| Tickets



Sun, Jan 27

@

#11 Illinois

6:00 PM ET Big Ten Network

Conversation| Tickets



Wed, Jan 30

vs

Northwestern

6:30 PM ET Big Ten Network

Conversation| Tickets



Sat, Feb 2

@

#5 Indiana

9:00 PM ET

Conversation| Tickets



Tue, Feb 5

vs

#8 Ohio State

9:00 PM ET

Conversation| Tickets



Sat, Feb 9

@

Wisconsin

12:00 PM ET

Conversation| Tickets



Tue, Feb 12

@

#18 Michigan State

9:00 PM ET

Conversation| Tickets



Sun, Feb 17

vs

Penn State

12:00 PM ET Big Ten Network

Conversation| Tickets



Sun, Feb 24

vs

#11 Illinois

TBD CBS

Conversation| Tickets



Wed, Feb 27

@

Penn State

6:30 PM ET Big Ten Network

Conversation| Tickets



Sat, Mar 2

vs

#18 Michigan State

5:15 PM ET

Conversation| Tickets



Wed, Mar 6

@

Purdue

7:00 PM ET Big Ten Network

Conversation| Tickets



Sun, Mar 10

vs

#5 Indiana

TBD CBS

Conversation| Tickets

[chichi2]

OT xmas bonus = Peking Tall Ship - 1929 Video


Around Cape Horn - Irving Johnson 1929 Peking Footage

Published on Oct 1, 2012

Chichi2 saw this a few years ago in his local library. He then became haunted by the Peking. He lives in a very rural setting and marked it off in length down the road, marked it there with a fallen tree. Some days he would muse by just looking down the road to that fallen tree, and he would go back to the library and take out the video to see it again. Then one day while watching a mystery puzzle like story on TV's On-Demand of many many episodes, there in the window was the Peking ship seen out the actor's window. It felt like a true haunting. When chichi2 went the year before to Iceland and Greenland, he found out that he would land across the Manhattan Harbor from the Peking ship so he tried to figure out away to visit but it was not possible because of airline schedule.

But here you go, you get to see, Chichi2's haunting, Tall Ship, and its amateur filmmaker, narrator, and sailor, and a Captain.

It was filmed onboard the Peking in 1929 by Capt Irving Johnson, who then narrated the film in 1980.

Full Length with hand stands = 38 min

[chichi2]

Peking Tall Ship - Video

Full Length with hand stands = 38 min

[chichi2]

Peking Tall Ship








http://www.downtownexpress.com/de_296/downtownnotebook.html

http://www.oldsaltblog.com/2012/10/windjammer-peking-needs-a-new-home-south-street-deal-with-hamburg-falls-through/

amateur filmmaker irving johnson
http://workingharbor.wordpress.com/2012/07/02/new-york-loses-historic-ship-peking-to-hamburg/

[chichi2]

I think we have just seen Santa's Rally

[chichi2]

[chichi2]

[chichi2]

Stocks quoted in this article: THC,RDN, MWA

Catching our eye in this week's edition of Singles Only are Tenet Healthcare Corporation (NYSE:THC), Mueller Water Products, Inc. (NYSE:MWA), and Radian Group Inc. (NYSE:RDN). A screen from Finviz.com allows us to isolate names that are low-priced but have performed well in 2012, despite skepticism on Wall Street.

The "Avg. Rating" column in the table below is indicative of analysts' opinion; a rating of 1.0 means all covering analysts rate the stock a "strong buy." A reading of 5.0 indicates unanimous "strong sell" ratings.






Healthcare facility concern THC is up more than 25% in 2012 and has gained roughly 70% on a year-over-year basis. Analysts, however, remain unimpressed. Of the 15 names following the stock, just four have deemed THC worthy of anything better than a "hold" rating. Additionally, Thomson Reuters reveals the average 12-month price target on the stock is $6.28, which is several cents below current levels.


What's more, options players have been crowding the bearish bandwagon. The 10-day put/call volume ratio at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) measures 0.57, which is higher than 94% of the past year's worth of readings. In other words, speculators have been buying to open put options at a near-annual-high-pace during the past two weeks.

MWA manufactures products and services related to the distribution of drinking water. The stock has outperformed the broader S&P 500 Index (SPX) -- on a relative-strength basis -- by nearly 31 percentage points in the past three months. During this time, the shares have glided higher along support from their 10-day moving average. What's more, the shares have doubled in value on a year-to-date basis.


Five of the eight analysts tracking MWA still name it a "hold," however, and the average 12-month price target of $4.02 sits south of the equity's current price. Elsewhere, it looks as though short sellers may finally be throwing in the towel. After a 17% drop in short interest during the past month, though, it would still take nearly seven days to cover all of the existing shorted shares.



Finally, short-term MWA options are relatively inexpensive right now. The stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 49% is lower than all but 4% of the past year's worth of readings.


Insurance company RDN is up a whopping 111% during the past 52 weeks and has outperformed the SPX by 37 percentage points during the past two months. Despite this uptrend, the stock can't garner one positive mention on Wall Street. Among the six analysts following the shares, there are five "hold" ratings and one bold "strong sell."

Meanwhile, short interest accounts for nearly one-third of the equity's float, offering ample fuel for a short-covering rally. And like MWA and THC, the 12-month price target for RDN is also south of the current share price. If analysts begin to come around to the bullish side, further buying power could emerge.

[chichi2]

More and more Americans are living with chronic ailments like coronary artery disease, hypertension and diabetes, with many surviving multiple heart attacks. But as the population ages, the number of men and women with heart failure, a weakening of the heart’s ability to pump blood and oxygen, is expected to increase exponentially.

Paradoxically, many specialists link the significant increase in the number of cases of heart failure, and the fatigue, shortness of breath and fluid retention that come with it, to advances in heart attack treatment.

“While we have done a great job in improving survival of patients suffering a heart attack earlier in life, we haven’t been able to save that much heart muscle,” said Dr. Stuart D. Russell, chief of heart failure and transplantation at Johns Hopkins Hospital in Baltimore. “Over time, those patients will develop heart failure because injured heart muscle tissue damaged by the heart attack will eventually be replaced by stiff scar tissue.”

This process, called fibrosis, causes the heart to become inflexible, unable to contract and pump blood efficiently.

“Thirty years ago, patients would have died from their heart attacks,” said Dr. Christopher M. O’Connor, director of the Duke Heart Center in Durham, N.C. “Thanks to thrombolytic therapy and angioplasty, these patients are surviving their heart attacks, only to go on and develop fibrosis and heart failure. We have converted an entire new population of patients to heart failure.”

About 22 percent of men and 46 percent of women will develop heart failure within six years of having a heart attack.

Dr. Kenneth L. Baughman, section leader in the division of cardiovascular medicine at the Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston, stresses the importance of quick treatment in the case of a heart attack, which leaves the heart muscle starved for oxygen. “Time is muscle,” he said.

“Heart failure is still a diagnosis that carries a relatively poor prognosis,” he added. Fewer than half of patients survive 5 years after the original diagnosis, and only 25 percent are alive at 10 years.

Despite the grim statistics, a growing array of heart devices and innovative machines has slowed the natural course of heart failure over the past 20 years.

“I feel a lot better knowing I have more firepower than ever before in the armamentarium to offer patients,” Dr. Baughman said. “We are not only allowing patients to live longer, but their ability to enjoy life and have fewer restrictions has been increased.”

Since the 1990s, ventricular assist devices, or VADs — machines that take over or assist the pumping action of the left ventricle, the heart’s main pump — have played a major role in extending survival for those with advanced disease who can no longer benefit from beta blockers and other medications. These miniature devices, partially implanted in the heart, with a fist-size battery pack left outside the body, may even allow some of the damaged heart muscle to heal, helping some patients with advanced disease to avoid a heart transplant. For others, VADs can be effective bridge-to-transplant devices.

“I have seen totally bedbound, incapacitated patients become dramatically better patients,” Dr. Baughman said. “They are able to get about, enhance their physical strength and become dramatically better patients while they await a heart transplant.”

A 2008 study in The Journal of the American Medical Association reported high death rates, repeat hospital stays and soaring medical bills among Medicare patients who had VADs implanted to help their failing hearts. To get the best outcome, Dr. Russell urges patients to seek an experienced surgeon who uses the most up-to-date pumps.

“The take-home message is that the prospective surgeon should not only be qualified but also work at a high-volume heart center where many VAD implantation procedures are routinely performed,” he said.

It also pays to be an informed consumer. “The next-generation VAD will be totally implantable,” said Dr. Russell, who also consults for Thoratec, a leading manufacturer of the devices. “Some of these units are available in Europe, and we expect to have clinical trials with similar devices here within two years.”

As researchers begin to unravel the complex genetic underpinnings of heart failure, new drugs and biological approaches to managing heart failure are being investigated as well.

Researchers led by Dr. Amit N. Patel, a cardiac surgeon formerly at the University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine and now at the University of Utah, have reported some success using adult stem cells taken from the patient’s own bone marrow and injected into damaged heart tissue. Much work remains to be done in finding which stem cells, the master cells of the body and one-thousandth the size of a grain of sand, help regenerate new cardiac muscle and enhance the ailing heart’s ability to pump blood.

Taking a different approach, researchers at Weill Cornell Medical College in New York are investigating ways to prevent heart muscle from stiffening after a heart attack. In animal studies, they have reported that by limiting the function of a class of molecules known as secreted frizzled-related proteins that trigger muscle scarring, they can preserve muscle tissue after a heart attack.

In other research, scientists at the Emory University School of Medicine in Atlanta reported that blood levels of resistin, a hormone produced by fat cells, are an effective biomarker that can predict a person’s risk for heart failure. The hope is that by identifying who is at greatest risk as early as possible, patients can benefit from aggressive risk reduction and lifelong surveillance to reduce the rate of progression to symptomatic heart failure.

“By taking a more biological approach to heart failure with stem cells and maybe even with gene therapy,” Dr. O’Connor said, “we will have more to offer our patients.”



Publish date: 1/29/2009

[chichi2]

http://www.forexpros.com/charts/real-time-futures-charts

[chichi2]

[chichi2]

Futures= ES~NQ~USD~Euro (April 2012)

ES (S&P 500 mini Futures) April 2012


NQ (Nasdaq 100 mini Futures) April 2012


US Dollar Index (Futures) April 2012


Euro FX (E mini Futures) April 2012


Futures= ES~NQ~USD~Euro (April 2012)

ES (S&P 500 mini Futures) April 2012
[ img]quotes.ino.com/chart/intraday.gif?s=CME_ES.M12.E&t=f&w=15&a=2&v=w[/img]

NQ (Nasdaq 100 mini Futures) April 2012
[ img]quotes.ino.com/chart/intraday.gif?s=CME_NQ.M12.E&t=f&w=15&a=2&v=w[/img]

US Dollar Index (Futures) April 2012
[ img]quotes.ino.com/chart/intraday.gif?s=NYBOT_DX.M12.E&t=f&w=15&a=2&v=w[/img]

Euro FX (E mini Futures) April 2012
[ img]quotes.ino.com/chart/intraday.gif?s=CME_E7.M12.E&t=f&w=15&a=2&v=w[/img]

[chichi2]

Futures= ES~NQ~USD~Euro (March 2012)

ES (S&P 500 mini Futures) March 2012


NQ (Nasdaq 100 mini Futures) March 2012


US Dollar Index (Futures) March 2012


Euro FX (E mini Futures) March 2012


ES (S&P 500 mini Futures) March 2012
[ img]quotes.ino.com/chart/intraday.gif?s=CME_ES.H12.E&t=f&w=15&a=2&v=w[/img]

NQ (Nasdaq 100 mini Futures) March 2012
[ img]quotes.ino.com/chart/intraday.gif?s=CME_NQ.H12.E&t=f&w=15&a=2&v=w[/img]

US Dollar Index (Futures) March 2012
[ img]quotes.ino.com/chart/intraday.gif?s=NYBOT_DX.H12.E&t=f&w=15&a=2&v=w[/img]

Euro FX (E mini Futures) March 2012
[ img]quotes.ino.com/chart/intraday.gif?s=CME_E7.H12.E&t=f&w=15&a=2&v=w[/img]

[chichi2]

ES (S&P mini Futures) March 2012


US Dollar Index (Futures) March 2012


ES (S&P mini Futures) March 2012
[ img]quotes.ino.com/chart/intraday.gif?s=CME_ES.H12.E&t=f&w=15&a=2&v=w[/img]

US Dollar Index (Futures) March 2012
[ img]quotes.ino.com/chart/intraday.gif?s=NYBOT_DX.H12.E&t=f&w=15&a=2&v=w[/img]

[chichi2]

The Ord Oracle By Tim Ord (02/01/12)_TY_George


* Wednesday, February 1, 2012


For 30 to 90 days horizons SPX: Sold SPX on 12/29/11 at 1263.02 for gain of 1.75%; long 1241.30 on 12/20/11.
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Gold ETF GLD long at 173.59 on 9/21/11
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat



Above is our TRIN/SPY ratio which we showed Monday and has been to today’s trading, which is still showing a bearish divergence. In general the TRIN/SPY ratio moves up when the SPY moves down and vice versa. Since January 23 the medium term (red line) of the TRIN/SPY ratio has been moving higher with the SPY moving higher and a warning sign that a possible pull back may be coming in the SPY. A bullish development appeared at the November low where the SPY was moving lower and the TRIN/SPY ratio (red line) was also moving lower and suggested a rally was coming. The daily VIX hitting the Lower Bollinger Band described on January 26 report also has issued a warning sign for the short term. Sold SPX 12/29/11 at 1263.02 for gain of 1.75%; Long SPX on 12/20/11 at 1241.30.





We presented this scenario on Monday and may be still playing out. Monday’s decline broke the previous highest volume low on higher volume and suggests the short term trend has turned down. The pattern that may be forming short term is a small Head and Shoulders top where the Head is the January 26 high. The January 25 rally had a surge in volume about double the day before and could be a minor “Buying Climax”. The January 26 high occurred on lighter volume than closed below the January 25 high creating a bearish candlestick pattern called a “Dark Cloud cover”. The pattern could be forming the Right Shoulder now that may take another day or two to complete. If the market pushes higher and test the January 26 high (133.40) and volume falls at least 10% for the volume recorded on January 26 then the picture will remain short term bearish. If volume is higher on the test then we would have to revaluate. If and when there is a break of the Neckline (around 130 range on SPY) should show a “Sign of Weakness” and gives a target near 127 level. There is good support near 125 range and may be where the next low will form. If the 125 range is going to be a low the TRIN/SPY ratio should produce a positive divergence in that region. Staying flat for now.





We have showed this chart before, which is the monthly XAU/Gold ratio. This chart dates back to 1992 and shows the longer term view for the XAU. To refresh the two part buy signal; first the monthly RSI of the XAU/Gold ratio falls below 35 (last occurrence came in September 2011 with a reading of 29.95), second part of the signal comes when the monthly Slow Stochastics of the XAU/Gold ratio falls below 20 and a close above 20 triggers the buy signal. The monthly Slow Stochastics of XAU/Gold ratio closed above 20 in October 2011 and triggered the buy signal and remains on a buy signal. The best signals have come when the Monthly mid Bollinger band is trending sideways or rising and currently the mid Bollinger band is trending sideways. When a buy signal is triggered by this method with the mid Bollinger band trending sideways or rising have lead to rally that lasted over a year. When the monthly XAU/Gold ratio is low then Gold stocks are cheap compared to gold and currently this ratio is at the second lowest level (2008 was lowest) going back to 1992. Gold likely will do well this year but gold stocks should outperform gold.
Long GDX 58.65 on 12/6/11. Long SLV at 29.48 on 10/20/11. Long GDXJ at 36.24 on 9/21/11. Long GLD at 173.59 on 9/21/11. Long BRD at 1.67 on 8/3/11. Long YNGFF .44 on 7/6/11. Long EGI at 2.16, on 6/30/11. Long GLD at 147.14 on 6/29/11; stop 170 hit = gain 15.5% . Long KBX at 1.13 on 11/9/10. Long LODE at 2.85 on 1/21/11. Long UEXCF at 2.07 on 1/5/11. We will hold as our core position in AUQ, CDE and KGC because in the longer term view these issues will head much higher. Holding CDE (average long at 27.7. Long cryxf at 1.82 on 2/5/08. KGC long at 6.07. Long AUQ average of 8.25. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/ORD.html

George.

[chichi2]

americano, your input is greatly appreciated however
my main board is called, Chichi2
i will move your posts there and hope
that in the future you will join us there

i use this board to help us grow the other board
the post you replied to will be used in our Potpourri post
for future review of Tom Ord

no one will review your posts on this board but me.

[americano]

http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=trades&symbol=SLV

[americano]

SLV all t forms aft hours thus far.

[chichi2]

The Ord Oracle By Tim Ord (01/25/12)_TY_George

* Wednesday, January 25, 2012


For 30 to 90 days horizons SPX: Sold SPX on 12/29/11 at 1263.02 for gain of 1.75%; long 1241.30 on 12/20/11.
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Gold ETF GLD long at 173.59 on 9/21/11
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat



Above is the hour chart of the VIX with the Bollinger band set for the daily. We are still getting warning signs from the VIX. When the hourly RSI (25) of the VIX trades at 30 and the VIX brakes the lower boundary line of its Bollinger Band then a warning sign for the market is issued. This indicator works well but not all signals work out. We have labeled with red circles when the VIX breaks the lower Bollinger band (bearish) and with blue circles when the VIX breaks the upper Bollinger band (Bullish). over the last couple of days the lower Bollinger bands have been broken and suggests a pull back in the market. Since the 100 day TRIN is in bullish territory, we would look for a bullish signal on a pull back. Market is extended but for right now the momentum is up. Sold SPX 12/29/11 at 1263.02 for gain of 1.75%; Long SPX on 12/20/11 at 1241.30.





Above is the weekly chart of GDX. The monthly chart remains on a buy signal that was triggered on October 1, 2011 by the XAU/Gold ratio analysis. The Bottom window is the weekly Slow Stochastics and has turned up at the end of December and remains in an uptrend. We have a blue downtrend line connecting the highs from the September high. A strong bullish signal was arise with a “Sign of Strength” through that line. On the GDX/GLD ratio a close above the blue line would add to the bullish picture which we expect to happen shortly. The daily chart below is in bullish mode.





Today’s trading in GDX produced a candlestick pattern called a “Bullish Engulfing”. The more days a Bullish Engulfing pattern engulfs the stronger the signal. Today’s Bullish Engulfing pattern engulfed eight days and suggests a strong signal. Today’s rally was also accompanied by a jump in volume which suggest and impulse wave is starting. GDX should go up in a five wave count and today’s rally may be the start of wave 3. Next short term target is the previous highs of December and November from 61 to 63 range. The bullish percent index turned up and closed above 20 which is bullish and the Slow Stochastics closed above 20 and suggests and impulse wave up has started.
Long GDX 58.65 on 12/6/11. Long SLV at 29.48 on 10/20/11. Long GDXJ at 36.24 on 9/21/11. Long GLD at 173.59 on 9/21/11. Long BRD at 1.67 on 8/3/11. Long YNGFF .44 on 7/6/11. Long EGI at 2.16, on 6/30/11. Long GLD at 147.14 on 6/29/11; stop 170 hit = gain 15.5% . Long KBX at 1.13 on 11/9/10. Long LODE at 2.85 on 1/21/11. Long UEXCF at 2.07 on 1/5/11. We will hold as our core position in AUQ, CDE and KGC because in the longer term view these issues will head much higher. Holding CDE (average long at 27.7. Long cryxf at 1.82 on 2/5/08. KGC long at 6.07. Long AUQ average of 8.25. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/ORD.html

George.

[chichi2]

* Wednesday, January 18, 2012


For 30 to 90 days horizons SPX: Sold SPX on 12/29/11 at 1263.02 for gain of 1.75%; long 1241.30 on 12/20/11.
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Gold ETF GLD long at 173.59 on 9/21/11
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat




This is expiration week which normally has a bullish bias and the current rally could run into Friday. Above is our TRIN/SPY ratio and seems to do well to help pick turns in the market. In general the TRIN/SPY ratio will head up when the market is heading down and vice versa. At turns in the market the TRIN/SPY ratio will head in the same direction as the market and produce a divergence. Right now the TRIN/SPY ratio is heading lower as the market is heading higher and not producing a divergence and a bullish sign for the market. We did have a divergence in the TRINQ/QQQ the other day but got whipped away on the current rally. The trend is up and we don’t see a safe trade at the moment. Sold SPX 12/29/11 at 1263.02 for gain of 1.75%; Long SPX on 12/20/11 at 1241.30.




Above is the daily chart of Gold going back to late 2001. Above is a two part signal that has produced good buy signals in the past. First part of the two part signal is that slow stochastics %K(145) must trade below 20 and then close above along with the CCI (80) trade below -100 and close above. When these two indicators give signals the same time, Gold went on a rally phase lasting several months and some extended over a year. Notice that the last signal given by this method was at the 2008 low, near 3 years ago. This method gave a buy signal in early January. I might add that the Commercials for gold hit 164 Short positions and in bullish territory.



The monthly charts for the XAU/GOLD ratio gave a buy signal on the close of 9/30/11 and remains on a buy signal. Above is GDX on a weekly timeframe. A bullish Head and Shoulder bottom developed where the Head is the October 2009 low. The Neckline was jumped in October 2010 and has since traded sideways creating a bullish consolidation called a “Expanding Triangle”. Normally the Consolidation pattern marks the half way point of the move and would give the current consolidation a target to 110 range. There is a two part buy signal developing now using the Bullish percent index and the Slow Stochastics. For this buy signal to be triggered both the bullish Percent index and the Slow Stochastics much trade below 20 and then close above 20. Currently the Slow Stochastics has traded below 20 and closed above. The Bullish percent index has traded below 20 but has not closed above 20 leaving this buy signal incomplete. Any short term strength in GDX most likely will trigger this buy signal on the weekly timeframe.
Long GDX 58.65 on 12/6/11. Long SLV at 29.48 on 10/20/11. Long GDXJ at 36.24 on 9/21/11. Long GLD at 173.59 on 9/21/11. Long BRD at 1.67 on 8/3/11. Long YNGFF .44 on 7/6/11. Long EGI at 2.16, on 6/30/11. Long GLD at 147.14 on 6/29/11; stop 170 hit = gain 15.5% . Long KBX at 1.13 on 11/9/10. Long LODE at 2.85 on 1/21/11. Long UEXCF at 2.07 on 1/5/11. We will hold as our core position in AUQ, CDE and KGC because in the longer term view these issues will head much higher. Holding CDE (average long at 27.7. Long cryxf at 1.82 on 2/5/08. KGC long at 6.07. Long AUQ average of 8.25. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/ORD.html

[chichi2]

The Ord Oracle By Tim Ord (01/11/12)_TY_George


* Wednesday, January 11, 2012


For 30 to 90 days horizons SPX: Sold SPX on 12/29/11 at 1263.02 for gain of 1.75%; long 1241.30 on 12/20/11.
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Gold ETF GLD long at 173.59 on 9/21/11
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat



Above is the SPX with its McClellan Oscillator. A bearish divergence shows up when the SPX makes higher highs and its McClellan Oscillator makes lower highs (see chart above). Currently this bearish divergence has developed. We noticed that in the start of an impulse waves the bearish divergence doesn’t stop the advance in the SPX, so we will watch for this potential development. Sold SPX 12/29/11 at 1263.02 for gain of 1.75%; Long SPX on 12/20/11 at 1241.30.




The chart above is the TRIN/SPY ratio dating back to mid 2010. In general the TRIN stays above 1.00 in a downtrend and below 1.00 in an uptrend. The TRIN/SPY ratio helps to visualize that more clearly on a chart and give us divergences. When the TRIN/SPY ratio makes lower highs as the SPY makes lower lows then a bullish divergence is occurring and suggest a low is near, which is what happen at the November low. A bullish picture for the market is when the SPY makes higher highs and the TRIN/SPY ratio is making lower lows and suggest the uptrend in the market may continue which is what happening now. The TRIN/SPY ratio is designed to catch the larger trend and minor wiggles in the market won’t show up in the TRIN/SPY ratio. Therefore a pull back to support near 125 is possible and the TRIN/SPY ratio could remain on a bullish signal. Right now the TRIN/SPY ratio is showing a bullish intermediate term picture and therefore we will look for buy on a pull back. Staying flat for now.




The monthly charts for the XAU/GOLD ratio gave a buy signal on the close of 9/30/11 and remains on a buy signal. The late December low appears to be a Head of a Head and Shoulders bottom. The Right Shoulder is developing now and could take another couple of days to complete and has support near the 52 range. The next rally up should show a “Sign of Strength” (SOS) ( large volume and strong price move) through the Neckline level near 55. This potential Head and Shoulders bottom has upside target near 61 to 63 which is the November and December highs. It possible that the 61 to 63 range may be seen before this month is out.
Long GDX 58.65 on 12/6/11. Long SLV at 29.48 on 10/20/11. Long GDXJ at 36.24 on 9/21/11. Long GLD at 173.59 on 9/21/11. Long BRD at 1.67 on 8/3/11. Long YNGFF .44 on 7/6/11. Long EGI at 2.16, on 6/30/11. Long GLD at 147.14 on 6/29/11; stop 170 hit = gain 15.5% . Long KBX at 1.13 on 11/9/10. Long LODE at 2.85 on 1/21/11. Long UEXCF at 2.07 on 1/5/11. We will hold as our core position in AUQ, CDE and KGC because in the longer term view these issues will head much higher. Holding CDE (average long at 27.7. Long cryxf at 1.82 on 2/5/08. KGC long at 6.07. Long AUQ average of 8.25. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/ORD.html

George.

[chichi2]

The Ord Oracle By Tim Ord (01/04/11)_TY_George


* Wednesday, January 4, 2012


For 30 to 90 days horizons SPX: Sold SPX on 12/29/11 at 1263.02 for gain of 1.75%; long 1241.30 on 12/20/11.
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Gold ETF GLD long at 173.59 on 9/21/11
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat





Above is an intermediate term view of the SPX. The top window is the MACD of the TRIN/SPY ratio with a 50 day moving average. We have circled in blue when the bullish and bearish crossover has occurred. Notice to the right it getting close to having a bullish crossover and suggests an intermediate term rally would begin. The second window down is the TRIN/SPY ratio in two different moving averages (the red and blue lines). When there is a wide separation in the red and blue lines then a turn in the market is not far off. Notice that there is a wide separation in the lines now and suggests market is near a turn. If the Red line passes down through the blue line then the turn in the market will be up. This method has not given a signal yet but it very close in doing so. These charts suggest a bullish outcome for the market. Since the market has been choppy over the last several months an impulse wave should start soon and the impulse wave may be up. Sold SPX 12/29/11 at 1263.02 for gain of 1.75%; Long SPX on 12/20/11 at 1241.30.





For the reason mentioned on first page, the intermediate term picture looks bullish. Above is a Head and Shoulders bottom scenario that may be developing where there is a double Head at the August October lows. The Right Shoulder of this pattern is the June low and the Right Shoulder is the November low. Notice that it appears a smaller Head and Shoulders bottom is formed where the Head is the November low and its Right Shoulder formed at the December low. There is a small divergence in the McClellan Oscillator as well as the Jump above the Neckline yesterday had below average volume and suggest the jump may not be valid. There is an open gap near 122.50 and most open gap gets filled at some point. The bigger picture is bullish, the short term picture is unclear but a pull back to 122.50 range would not surprise us and might actually setup a bullish signal. If this Head and Shoulder pattern plays out it would give an upside target near 1500.



Above is the McClellan Oscillator and Summation index for GDX. The McClellan Oscillator has been showing a positive divergence since November and a bullish sign. The Summation index reached below -1000 (a rare occurrence) and most oversold condition in the last year. A “Rising Wedge” form from October to mid November which had a downside target to the October low and has hit last week. The October low was also a “Selling Climax” day and the “Selling Climax” low was tested last Thursday on lighter volume and then closed above the October low creating a bullish “Spring”. Our view is the low came in last Thursday and an uptrend has started in GDX. The first upside target on GDX is the previous high near 63. The monthly charts for the XAU/GOLD ratio gave a buy signal on the close of 9/30/11 and remains on a buy signal.
Long GDX 58.65 on 12/6/11. Long SLV at 29.48 on 10/20/11. Long GDXJ at 36.24 on 9/21/11. Long GLD at 173.59 on 9/21/11. Long BRD at 1.67 on 8/3/11. Long YNGFF .44 on 7/6/11. Long EGI at 2.16, on 6/30/11. Long GLD at 147.14 on 6/29/11; stop 170 hit = gain 15.5% . Long KBX at 1.13 on 11/9/10. Long LODE at 2.85 on 1/21/11. Long UEXCF at 2.07 on 1/5/11. We will hold as our core position in AUQ, CDE and KGC because in the longer term view these issues will head much higher. Holding CDE (average long at 27.7. Long cryxf at 1.82 on 2/5/08. KGC long at 6.07. Long AUQ average of 8.25. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/ORD.html

George.

[chichi2]

The Ord Oracle By Tim Ord (12/21/11)_TY_George


* Wednesday, December 21, 2011


For 30 to 90 days horizons SPX: long the SPX at 1241.30 on 12/20/11.
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Gold ETF GLD long at 173.59 on 9/21/11
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat



A possible Head and Shoulder bottom may be forming where the Head came in at the November low. We have a resistance zone form 125.5 to 127.5 ranges which is where Neckline lies from two different Head and Shoulders patterns. The Red Neckline is from the Head and Shoulders top where the May high was the Head. The smaller blue Neckline is the from the potential current Head and Shoulders bottom where the Head is the November low. A bullish intermediate term signal would be generated if the SPY rallied through the 125.50 – 127.50 range with a “Sign of Strength” (SOS). This condition would give an upside target to 150 on SPY. If an SOS fails to show up in the 125.50 to 127.50 range then that range will become resistance and market may fall back. Next chart will show this potential bullish setup.




Above is a potential analysis that may setup in the weeks ahead. There are a lot of Head and Shoulder patterns here but the large one that may be setting up is the one where the Head is the August to October bottom. The Neckline of this H&S comes in near 126 range and a large volume push through this level “Sign of Strength” (SOS) would confirm this pattern and give a target to 150 range on the SPY (SPX 1500). If this SOS is going to happen it will most likely hold off into January. Volume over the next week or so to finish off this year most likely will be below average. If a “Sign of Strength” does not appear through the 125 – 127 range on the SPY then market will form a high. As for right now a bullish signal has been triggered and trend remains up.




Above is a shorter term view for GDXJ. Yesterday’s rally jumped above the previous highs near 26 and implies that 26 range should now act as support. GDX did not jump above its previous highs and suggests GDXJ is stronger. Yesterday’s rally in GDXJ turned up the Slow Stochastics which was below 20 and suggest a rally may be beginning. Good rallies have formed when both the RSI hit below 30 and the Chaikin Oscillator traded below minus 2.5m and turn up together. On the current potential low the RSI hit below 30 and the Chaikin Oscillator hit below -5m which was more extreme and suggests a potential stronger rally. The monthly charts for the XAU/GOLD ratio gave a buy signal on the close of 9/30/11 and remains on a buy signal.
Long GDX 58.65 on 12/6/11. Long SLV at 29.48 on 10/20/11. Long GDXJ at 36.24 on 9/21/11. Long GLD at 173.59 on 9/21/11. Long BRD at 1.67 on 8/3/11. Long YNGFF .44 on 7/6/11. Long EGI at 2.16, on 6/30/11. Long GLD at 147.14 on 6/29/11; stop 170 hit = gain 15.5% . Long KBX at 1.13 on 11/9/10. Long LODE at 2.85 on 1/21/11. Long UEXCF at 2.07 on 1/5/11. We will hold as our core position in AUQ, CDE and KGC because in the longer term view these issues will head much higher. Holding CDE (average long at 27.7. Long cryxf at 1.82 on 2/5/08. KGC long at 6.07. Long AUQ average of 8.25. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/ORD.html

George.

[chichi2]

The Ord Oracle By Tim Ord (12/07/11)_TY_George


* Wednesday, December 7, 2011


For 30 to 90 days horizons SPX: Long on 10/4/11 SPX at 1123.95, Sold 10/18/11 at 1225.38 = gain 9.02%
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Gold ETF GLD long at 173.59 on 9/21/11
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat



There are two Head and Shoulders tops where their Necklines come in near the current Price. The larger Head and Shoulder Top where the Head is the May high (Red Neckline) comes in near the current price. A smaller Head and Shoulder pattern developed where the Head is the October 27 high and the Neckline (Blue line) comes in near current price and both of these Necklines may provide stiff resistance. On November 30, a “Sign of Strength” (SOS) appeared and pushed through the previous lows near 121 and now the previous lows should provided support on a pull back to that level and that area may line up for a bullish signal. We have circled in red a possible scenario that could develop. Staying flat for now. Long the SPX on 11/4 close at 1123.95, Sold 10/18/11 at 1225.38 for gain of 9.02%.





Above is our TICK/TRIN ratio (second window down from top). This ratio has stayed in bullish territory even on the rally from the November low. If the market does pull back in the next couple of days or so the TICK/TRIN ratio may push further into the bullish territory and will help give confidence for a bullish buy signal.





Above is a shorter term view for GDX. A “Triangle Pattern” starting forming at the September high and the October low (see chart above). A “Sign of Strength” Through 57 appeared on November 30 and suggest the 57 range should now act as support. Yesterday GDX tested the 57 range and bounced off creating a bullish candlestick pattern called a “Bullish Engulfing” and added to the short term bullish picture. The FOMC meeting is next Tuesday and a lot of the time the market will become quit leading up to that event. In general market may settle back a bit short term. We have draw the trend lines of the Triangle pattern and we would like to see a “Sign of Strength” through the upper trend line to confirm the breakout. The bottom window is the Bullish Percent index for the Gold Miners index and a cross above its 10 day moving average would be another bullish development. The bigger picture remains bullish.
Long GDX 58.65 on 12/6/11. Long SLV at 29.48 on 10/20/11. Long GDXJ at 36.24 on 9/21/11. Long GLD at 173.59 on 9/21/11. Long BRD at 1.67 on 8/3/11. Long YNGFF .44 on 7/6/11. Long EGI at 2.16, on 6/30/11. Long GLD at 147.14 on 6/29/11; stop 170 hit = gain 15.5% . Long KBX at 1.13 on 11/9/10. Long LODE at 2.85 on 1/21/11. Long UEXCF at 2.07 on 1/5/11. We will hold as our core position in AUQ, CDE and KGC because in the longer term view these issues will head much higher. Holding CDE (average long at 27.7. Long cryxf at 1.82 on 2/5/08. KGC long at 6.07. Long AUQ average of 8.25. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/ORD.html

George.

[chichi2]

The Ord Oracle By Tim Ord (11/30/11)_TY_George



* Wednesday, November 30, 2011


For 30 to 90 days horizons SPX: Long on 10/4/11 SPX at 1123.95, Sold 10/18/11 at 1225.38 = gain 9.02%
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Gold ETF GLD long at 173.59 on 9/21/11
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat



We are looking at the QQQ today as its drawing a clearer picture than the SPY. We didn’t get all the evidence we would have like at the last low and was looking for a minor retracement but the news of more stimuli snuffed that. We have founded when there are lots of gaps near one another the market is usually in a trading range. With the up and down gaps all over the place we are concluding the trading range will continue for a while longer. For near term the pattern formed from mid October to Mid November was a “Head and Shoulders top” where the “Head” came in at the October 27 high. This small “Head and Shoulder Top” had a downside target to 53 which was met. It also had a “Sign of Weakness” Through the Neckline and confirming the pattern. Resistance now lies at the Neckline which comes in near 56.50 of which we are almost there. Two large gaps are left open below (see chart above) and our targets to the downside for a potential long trade. According to our larger view of the market the larger trend is turning up and therefore will only trade the long side. Potential buy signal may be triggered at one of the two gaps below. Staying flat for now. Long the SPX on 11/4 close at 1123.95, Sold 10/18/11 at 1225.38 for gain of 9.02%.





The intermediate term view of the SPX is bullish. The chart above dates back to 1992 and shows the VIX in the bottom window and the 100 day average of the TRIN in top window. Intermediate term lows have formed when the VIX has reached above 40 and the 100 day TRIN reached above 1.40. Both of these indicators reached these bullish levels at the October low and suggest the SPX has started an intermediate term rally. There can be backing and filling near term but in general we expect the market to hold up well into January.





Above is the monthly XAU/GOLD ratio dating back to late 1984. You have seen this chart before but its a good reminder to show what the bigger picture is doing. The monthly charts rule the weekly charts and the weekly charts rule the daily and on down. Therefore when the monthly charts are tuning bullish than its more of a waiting game for the rally to kick in. To review the bullish two part signal, the monthly RSI of the XAU/GOLD ratio needs to close below 35 (on the September close the monthly RSI hit 29.95) which was met. The next part of the signal is for the monthly Slow Stochastics of the XAU/GOLD ratio trade below 20 and the bullish signal comes when it closes above 20. On the close of October the Slow Stochastics closed at 20.34 and has triggered the buy signal and today is the close of November and Slow Stochastic closed at 21.92 and remains on the buy signal. Previous signals of this type have lead to over 100% gains in 12 months. The bigger picture remains bullish.
Long SLV at 29.48 on 10/20/11. Long GDXJ at 36.24 on 9/21/11. Long GLD at 173.59 on 9/21/11. Long BRD at 1.67 on 8/3/11. Long YNGFF .44 on 7/6/11. Long EGI at 2.16, on 6/30/11. Long GLD at 147.14 on 6/29/11; stop 170 hit = gain 15.5% . Long KBX at 1.13 on 11/9/10. Long LODE at 2.85 on 1/21/11. Long UEXCF at 2.07 on 1/5/11. We will hold as our core position in AUQ, CDE and KGC because in the longer term view these issues will head much higher. Holding CDE (average long at 27.7. Long cryxf at 1.82 on 2/5/08. KGC long at 6.07. Long AUQ average of 8.25. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/ORD.html

George.

[chichi2]

The Ord Oracle By Tim Ord (11/16/11)_TY_George


* Wednesday, November 16, 2011


For 30 to 90 days horizons SPX: Long on 10/4/11 SPX at 1123.95, Sold 10/18/11 at 1225.38 = gain 9.02%
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Gold ETF GLD long at 173.59 on 9/21/11
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat




We are looking at the QQQ as it gives more clues to what may happen near term then the SPY. The “Three Drives to a Top” in October produced a negative divergence in the McClellan Oscillator which predicted a pull back of which it did. Another negative divergence by the McClellan Oscillator in early November produced another pull back in the QQQ. Yesterday the QQQ tested the gap level near 58 on lighter volume and showed the gap has resistance. The QQQ is virtually unchanged over the last month and a breakout of this trading range is coming soon. It appears the first move out of this trading range may be down and may find support near the gap level of early October near 55. The evidence can change quickly but right now the evidence is for a pull back. Seasonality is bullish into January and the bigger trend appears up, so if the market does pull back we will look for a buy signal. Staying flat for now. Long the SPX on 11/4 close at 1123.95, Sold 10/18/11 at 1225.38 for gain of 9.02%.




Above is the TRIN/TICK ratio updated to the present, dating back to mid 2005 and is an intermediate term view of the S&P. The TRIN/TICK ratio doesn’t give many signals but has been good when it does develop a signal. A bearish sign develops when the TRIN/TICK ratio falls to .01 (which it has now). This bearish signal has stayed in the bearish level for over a week now. Previous signals of this type have identified tops that where relative significant and therefore is keeping us alert. Readings in the .01 range and below have lead to pull backs in the market which is what we are expecting short term but we are not expecting a significant pull back. The next several days of trading may help clear the picture. Staying flat for now.




We have updated this chart to current time frame. Above is the monthly XAU/GOLD ratio dating back to 1984. Since 1984 only eight buy signals has been generated, counting the current buy signal which was triggered September 30. To refresh, the top window is the monthly RSI of the XAU/GOLD ratio. When the monthly RSI of this ratio falls below 35 then the first part of this two part signal has been met. The recent monthly RSI reached 29.95 back in September. The second part of the signal and to trigger the buy signal comes when the slow Stochastics of the XAU/GOLD ratio closes above 20. The Slow Stochastics closed above 20 on September 30 and triggered the buy signal. The 1986; 1992; 2000; 2005 and 2008 buy signals of this type all produce gains of 100% or more over the next 12 months or so. The two signals that didn’t, came in 1998 and 1999 which produced a gains some where near 25%. On a short term basis, GDX could pull back possibly to 58 or lower and we will be looking a bullish setup on the potential pull back.
Long SLV at 29.48 on 10/20/11. Long GDXJ at 36.24 on 9/21/11. Long GLD at 173.59 on 9/21/11. Long BRD at 1.67 on 8/3/11. Long YNGFF .44 on 7/6/11. Long EGI at 2.16, on 6/30/11. Long GLD at 147.14 on 6/29/11; stop 170 hit = gain 15.5% . Long KBX at 1.13 on 11/9/10. Long LODE at 2.85 on 1/21/11. Long UEXCF at 2.07 on 1/5/11. We will hold as our core position in AUQ, CDE and KGC because in the longer term view these issues will head much higher. Holding CDE (average long at 27.7. Long cryxf at 1.82 on 2/5/08. KGC long at 6.07. Long AUQ average of 8.25. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/ORD.html

George.

[chichi2]

The Ord Oracle By Tim Ord (11/09/11)_TY_George


* Wednesday, November 9, 2011


For 30 to 90 days horizons SPX: Long on 10/4/11 SPX at 1123.95, Sold 10/18/11 at 1225.38 = gain 9.02%
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Gold ETF GLD long at 173.59 on 9/21/11
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat




The SPY analysis is a little fuzzy and the QQQ seems to be giving a better clue of what to expect and is why we are looking at this index. There was a “Three Drives to a Top” pattern that formed in August to September and had a target to where the pattern began which came in near 50 and was met. This “Three Drives to a Top” came down in an ABC pattern. A smaller “Three Drives to a Top” may have formed In October and an ABC may have form where the “C” leg down may have started today. The QQQ has a large open gap near 55 and most large Open gaps get filled and are one of the reason we where expecting another down-leg. Also the McClellan Oscillator did show a negative divergence at yesterday’s high and a bearish sign. Also I might add that at the October 26 and November 1 low the McClellan Oscillator showed a divergence that supported for the downtrend to continue. Since the 100 day average of the TRIN hit 1.50 range (which implies an intermediate term low formed) we will take long positions only. We will look for a bullish setup for the next low, possibly near the 117 on the SPY which is where a gap lies open. Long the SPX on 11/4 close at 1123.95, Sold 10/18/11 at 1225.38 for gain of 9.02%.




Above is the VIX/TICK ratio dating back 18 months. Highs have been found in the market when the VIX/TICK ratio trades above .5 or below -.5. The VIX/TICK ratio pushed more negative last week with a closing reading of -.09 then popped up Friday and since entered the bearish level again yesterday. Sometimes bearish readings in the VIX/TICK ratio can lead a high in the market several days and appears that was the case for current timeframe. Of the last seven signals by the VIX/TICK ratio only one failed (back in October 2010). The market has been running into resistance near the Neckline of a Head and Shoulders top since late October and with the VIX/TICK ratio giving bearish signs, it appears the Neckline resistance will hold. We thought the SPY may pull back and fill the gap near 117 and still could be the case. In general the bigger trend appears up (100 day TRIN reached bullish level near 1.50) and if the SPY pulls back to the 117 gap level we will look for a bullish setup. For now we will remain flat.




Above is the daily GDX chart. On Monday’s report, we said, “For the last couple of days the GDX has been testing the gap level of September 22 on much lighter volume. Normally testing a gap on lighter volume shows the gap has resistance and therefore GDX may stall near current levels.” It does appear GDX has stalled and a pull back to support is possible. Good support lies near 58 and we will look for a bullish setup there. We are very bullish on GDX on the larger time frames as the monthly XAU/GOLD ratio suggests GDX could double over the next year or so. For short term we will look for a bullish setup near 58.
Long SLV at 29.48 on 10/20/11. Long GDXJ at 36.24 on 9/21/11. Long GLD at 173.59 on 9/21/11. Long BRD at 1.67 on 8/3/11. Long YNGFF .44 on 7/6/11. Long EGI at 2.16, on 6/30/11. Long GLD at 147.14 on 6/29/11; stop 170 hit = gain 15.5% . Long KBX at 1.13 on 11/9/10. Long LODE at 2.85 on 1/21/11. Long UEXCF at 2.07 on 1/5/11. We will hold as our core position in NXG, CDE and KGC because in the longer term view these issues will head much higher. Holding CDE (average long at 27.7. Long cryxf at 1.82 on 2/5/08. KGC long at 6.07. Long NXG average of 2.26. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/ORD.html

George.

[chichi2]

The Ord Oracle By Tim Ord (11/02/11)_TY_George


* Wednesday, November 2, 2011


For 30 to 90 days horizons SPX: Long on 10/4/11 SPX at 1123.95, Sold 10/18/11 at 1225.38 = gain 9.02%
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Gold ETF GLD long at 173.59 on 9/21/11
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat



Above is our VIX/TICK ratio that dates back to late 2007. We showed this chart yesterday. When this ratio reaches above .5 or below -.5 a high in the market is anticipated. The red lines showed successes and blue lines failures. This ratio entered the bearish level late last week and is in more bearish level today with a closing reading of -.9. Notice that it gave a sell signal near the Neckline resistance and remains on a sell signal. Not all indicators work all the time and the VIX/TICK could produce a failure here, but previous deep retracement signals like this have been successful. The window at the bottom is the TICK/VIX ratio and readings near -5 are bullish of which its not near this level right now. Long the SPX on 11/4 close at 1123.95, Sold 10/18/11 at 1225.38 for gain of 9.02%.





Here is the shorter term time frame of the VIX/TICK ratio dating back 9 months. You can see that the VIX/TICK ratio pushing more negative today with a closing reading of -.09. Notice the sell signal near the Neckline of the larger Head and Shoulder stop where the May high was the Head. What may be forming short term is a Smaller Head and Shoulder top where the Head is the October 27 high. The Right shoulder is forming now and may complete with today’s trading to as late as Friday’s trading. This Smaller Head and Shoulders top would give a downside target near 117 on the SPY which is also where an Open Gap lies. We have found most open gaps get filled at some point. In general the bigger trend appears up (100 day TRIN reached bullish level near 1.50) and if the SPY pulls back to the 117 gap level we will look for a bullish setup. For now we will remain flat.





Above is the Monthly chart of the XAU/GOLD ratio updated to tonight’s close. The month of October ended Monday and the Slow Stochastics of the XAU/GOLD ratio closed above 20 and a bullish monthly signal has been triggered for the XAU gold stocks. The signal that was triggered Monday is a two part signal. The first part of the two part signal requires that the monthly RSI of the XAU/GOLD ratio hit 35 or lower; and in September the RSI reached 29.95. The second part of the signal is that the Monthly Slow Stochastics of the XAU/GOLD ratio fall below 20 and a close above 20 triggered the buy signal which was met Monday. We also have done this type bullish setup for the monthly HUI/GOLD; GDX/GOLD and SPTGD/GOLD and all have triggered bullish signals where the monthly slow stochastics have turned up and closed above 20. Since this signal is on a monthly timeframe we expect this signal will be in force over the next 12 months or so. Some of the previous signals of this type have lead to over 100% gains in the gold indexes over the life of the signal.
Long SLV at 29.48 on 10/20/11. Long GDXJ at 36.24 on 9/21/11. Long GLD at 173.59 on 9/21/11. Long BRD at 1.67 on 8/3/11. Long YNGFF .44 on 7/6/11. Long EGI at 2.16, on 6/30/11. Long GLD at 147.14 on 6/29/11; stop 170 hit = gain 15.5% . Long KBX at 1.13 on 11/9/10. Long LODE at 2.85 on 1/21/11. Long UEXCF at 2.07 on 1/5/11. We will hold as our core position in NXG, CDE and KGC because in the longer term view these issues will head much higher. Holding CDE (average long at 27.7. Long cryxf at 1.82 on 2/5/08. KGC long at 6.07. Long NXG average of 2.26. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/ORD.html

George.

[chichi2]

Weekly Pivot Points for SPX Cash TY Chip McVickar

[chichi2]

The Ord Oracle By Tim Ord (10/26/11)_TY_George


* Wednesday, October 26, 2011


For 30 to 90 days horizons SPX: Long on 10/4/11 SPX at 1123.95, Sold 10/18/11 at 1225.38 = gain 9.02%
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Gold ETF GLD long at 173.59 on 9/21/11
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat



Above is the daily QQQ chart. The reason we are looking at the QQQ chart is that sometimes we can gleam information that doesn’t show up on the SPY. Since both QQQ and SPY in general trade in concert, then if QQQ pulls back, also SPY may follow. Intermediate term the picture remains bullish, but the short term QQQ is showing signs that a pull back may begin. The Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator is showing a negative divergence short term (we have pointed out previous divergences in the McClellan Oscillator on chart), the NYSE McClellan Oscillator is not showing a divergence. Also on Monday’s new high the volume drop near 30% compared to previous high of last week and a short term bearish sign. The 10 day moving average of the Tickq is also showing a negative divergence. There is a gap near 55 that could get filled and something to watch for. If the QQQ pulls back to 55 range and finds support, then we may look for a bullish signal to develop on the SPX as the intermediate term trend remains up. Sold 10/18/11 at 1225.38 for 9.02% gain, Long SPX at 1123.95 on 10/4/11,




Above is a shorter term view of the gold equity markets. Above is the daily Bullish percent index for the Gold miners. The bullish Percent index measure the percent of stocks in the index that are on Point and Figure buy signal. In early October the percent of stocks that where on Point and Figure buy signals in the Gold Miners index stood at 13%; Currently that percentage has risen to 30%. Therefore the Gold Miners index is getting stronger. The second window from the bottom is the Slow Stochastics of the Bullish Percent of the Gold Miners index (BPGDM). Normally when the Slow Stochastics trades below 20 and turns up it makes a “B” line to 80 and we would expect that to happen here which would require the percent of stocks on Point and Figure to rise rapidly. The bottom window is the XAU/GLD ratio. When this ratio is rising then gold stocks are outperforming gold and normally considered a bullish environment. Right now the XAU/GLD ratio is trending sideways which is considered Neutral but a close above the blue line would turn bullish for both gold and gold stocks.




Above is the Monthly chart of the XAU/GOLD ratio. Monday when we posted this chart the monthly Slow Stochastics set at 18.65 and today it hit 19.27 and rising. The month of October ends next Tuesday and if the Slow Stochastics of the XAU/GOLD ratio closes above 20 a bullish signal will be triggered for the XAU gold stocks. The first part of the two part signal requires that the monthly RSI of the XAU/GOLD ratio hit 35 or lower; which has been met. We also have done this type bullish setup for the monthly HUI/GOLD; GDX/GOLD and SPTGD/GOLD and all have triggered bullish signals where the monthly slow stochastics have turned up and closed above 20. For huge moves to occur, sentiment must be in extremes (it is), COT for Commercials is at extremes (Commercials are hording gold) and the Rydex Precious Metals traders are on the side lines (and they are).
Long SLV at 29.48 on 10/20/11. Long GDXJ at 36.24 on 9/21/11. Long GLD at 173.59 on 9/21/11. Long BRD at 1.67 on 8/3/11. Long YNGFF .44 on 7/6/11. Long EGI at 2.16, on 6/30/11. Long GLD at 147.14 on 6/29/11; stop 170 hit = gain 15.5% . Long KBX at 1.13 on 11/9/10. Long LODE at 2.85 on 1/21/11. Long UEXCF at 2.07 on 1/5/11. We will hold as our core position in NXG, CDE and KGC because in the longer term view these issues will head much higher. Holding CDE (average long at 27.7. Long cryxf at 1.82 on 2/5/08. KGC long at 6.07. Long NXG average of 2.26. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/ORD.html

George.

[chichi2]

The Ord Oracle By Tim Ord (10/19/11)_TY_George


* Wednesday, October 19, 2011


For 30 to 90 days horizons SPX: Long on 10/4/11 SPX at 1123.95, Sold 10/18/11 at 1225.38 = gain 9.02%
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Gold ETF GLD long at 173.59 on 9/21/11
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat



Above is our short term view of the SPY. Yesterday there was a surge in volume near 30% higher then the previous day and suggested short term exhaustion in the market. Also the McClellan Oscillator showed a negative divergence and a short term bearish sign. Previous times over the last several months this combination has occurred the market reversed so we took our 9% gain. If the market does not reverse near term then that will be a bullish longer term sign. What could be developing here is a Head and Shoulder bottom where the Head is the October 4 low and if the market does pull back here then that could develop the Right Shoulder that may be similar in price structure to Left Shoulder. For now we will remain flat. Sold 10/18/11 at 1225.38 for 9.02% gain, Long SPX at 1123.95 on 10/4/11,





Above is an intermediate term view of the SPX. A lot of the time the NYSE McClellan Summation index will show a divergence at turning points in the SPX. We have labeled above the negative divergence in the NYSE McClellan Summation index at the May and July highs. A positive divergence occurred on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator at the double bottom in SPX at the August and October lows. The short term picture shows exhaustion and depending how far the market pulls back will determine what the next trade will be. If SPX pulls back to 1120 range then we may conclude that a Head and Shoulder bottom is forming. If SPX finds support near 1190 then that would be more bullish for short term. Sold 10/18/11 at 1225.38 for 9.02% gain, Long SPX at 1123.95 on 10/4/11,





The pattern forming on GDX appears to be another “Rising Wedge”. The Previous “Rising Wedge” in GDX occurred in August that had a downside target to 54 range which was met. The current “Rising Wedge” started at the October 4 low and ended at the October 14 high. “Rising Wedge” Pattern have downside target to where they began and in the current “Rising Wedge” pattern would have a target to the October 4 low near 50 range and be the place we will look for a buy signal. The Bullish Percent index of the Gold Miners (Bottom window) has had a bullish crossover and the test of the 50 low most likely will put in a positive divergence along with a positive divergence in the daily RSI. Remember the monthly GDX/GOLD ratio is forecasting a huge move in GDX in the next 12 months or so. For these huge moves to occur, sentiment must be in extremes (it is), COT for Commercials is at extremes (Commercials are hording gold) and the Rydex Precious Metals traders are on the side lines (and they are).
Long GDXJ at 36.24 on 9/21/11. Long GLD at 173.59 on 9/21/11. Long BRD at 1.67 on 8/3/11. Long YNGFF .44 on 7/6/11. Sold on 8/8/11 SLV at 38.32 for gain of 11.4%-Long SLV at 34.39 on 7/5/11. Long EGI at 2.16, on 6/30/11. Long GDX at 57.01- stopped at 59.50 for gain 4.4%. Long GLD at 147.14 on 6/29/11; stop 170 hit = gain 15.5% . Long KBX at 1.13 on 11/9/10. Long LODE at 2.85 on 1/21/11. Long UEXCF at 2.07 on 1/5/11. We will hold as our core position in NXG, CDE and KGC because in the longer term view these issues will head much higher. Holding CDE (average long at 27.7. Long cryxf at 1.82 on 2/5/08. KGC long at 6.07. Long NXG average of 2.26. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/ORD.html

George.

[chichi2]

http://www.wavaholic.com/


BlackTruck
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=56226112

Trend1
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[chichi2]

$SPX charts (5m,15m,60m,d,d,w,w,w,m) --- Continuous Updates


Five (5) Minute --- 2 Day chart



Fifteen (15) Minute --- 5 Day chart



Sixty (60) Minute --- 1 Month chart



The Daily --- 8 Month chart



The Daily (8 Month chart) --- CLOSE UP only 2 Months shown



Weekly --- 3 Year chart



Weekly --- 3 Year chart -- with 2 Fibonacci Scales



Weekly --- 1 Year and 8 Months chart



Monthly --- 6 Years and 6 Months

[chichi2]

$SPX charts (5m,15m,60m,d,d,w,w,m) --- Continuous Updates


Five (5) Minute --- 2 Day chart



Fifteen (15) Minute --- 5 Day chart



Sixty (60) Minute --- 1 Month chart



The Daily --- 8 Month chart



The Daily (8 Month chart) --- CLOSE UP only 2 Months shown



Weekly --- 3 Year chart



Weekly --- 1 Year and 8 Months chart



Monthly --- 6 Years and 6 Months

[chichi2]

$SPX Charts (5m,15m,60m,d,d,w,m) --- Continuous Updates


Five (5) Minute -- 2 Day chart



Fifteen (15) Minute -- 5 Day chart



Sixty (60) Minute -- 1 Month chart



The Daily -- 8 Month chart



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Weekly -- 3 Year chart



Monthly -- 6 1/2 Year chart

[chichi2]

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[chichi2]

The Ord Oracle By Tim Ord (10/05/11)_TY_George



* Wednesday, October 5, 2011


For 30 to 90 days horizons SPX: Long on 10/4/11 SPX at 1123.95.
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Gold ETF GLD long at 173.59 on 9/21/11
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat



A “Selling Climax” occurred at the 8/9 low which came in near 110 on the SPY and 1100 on SPX and most “Selling Climax” low are tested and that test came yesterday. For a bullish signal to be triggered, the test needs to be on lighter volume and close above the “Selling climax” low, which it did. The 100 day average of the TRIN hit into the intermediate term bullish level of 1.50 and suggest the potential uptrend will be of intermediate term and could keep the rally going into year end. There is strong resistance near 1250 on SPX and could be where market is headed. The McClellan Oscillator did produce a positive divergence yesterday and a bullish sign. Sometimes the test of the “Selling Climax” is tested (that’s yesterday’s low) before the market heads higher and as long as the test is on lighter volume the bullish picture will remain. Long SPX at 1123.95 on 10/4/11.





Above is an intermediate term view of the SPX. Normally when the 100 day moving average of the TRIN reaches above 1.40 (Current high reading came in at 1.49) the market is near an intermediate term low. To keep the bullish picture for the SPX, generally the 100 day TRIN should trend lower. The Neckline of a Head and Shoulders top lies near 1250 and may be where the SPX is headed and may provide resistance.



Above is the daily silver/gold ratio dating back to mid 2007. When silver falls dramatically compared to gold than the RSI of this ratio falls rapidly and when the RSI falls below 30 then a bottom in gold is near for the intermediate term. We have labeled with Red arrows when the daily RSI of this ratio fell below 30. Over the last week the RSI has been below 30 (current reading is 29.49) and suggests gold is near an intermediate term low. We bought GLD early but the analysis suggests an intermediate term low is being processed and we will keep our position. Long GDXJ at 36.24 on 9/21/11. Long GLD at 173.59 on 9/21/11. Long BRD at 1.67 on 8/3/11. Long YNGFF .44 on 7/6/11. Sold on 8/8/11 SLV at 38.32 for gain of 11.4%-Long SLV at 34.39 on 7/5/11. Long EGI at 2.16, on 6/30/11. Long GDX at 57.01- stopped at 59.50 for gain 4.4%. Long GLD at 147.14 on 6/29/11; stop 170 hit = gain 15.5% . Long KBX at 1.13 on 11/9/10. Long LODE at 2.85 on 1/21/11. Long UEXCF at 2.07 on 1/5/11. We will hold as our core position in NXG, CDE and KGC because in the longer term view these issues will head much higher. Holding CDE (average long at 27.7. Long cryxf at 1.82 on 2/5/08. KGC long at 6.07. Long NXG average of 2.26. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/ORD.html

George.

[chichi2]

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[chichi2]

The Ord Oracle By Tim Ord (09/28/11)_TY_George



* Wednesday, September 28, 2011


For 30 to 90 days horizons SPX: Flat
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Gold ETF GLD long at 173.59 on 9/21/11
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat




A “Selling Climax” occurred at the 8/9 low which came in near 110 on the SPY and 1100 on SPX and most “Selling Climax” low are tested at some point. We have found that the McClellan Oscillator will form a divergence (positive divergence for bottoms and negative divergence at top) and right now there is no divergence and suggests today’s decline may continue. In general we are looking for a bullish signal to develop on the Test of the August 9 low near 1100 or a little below. On that potential test, most likely the 100 day average of the TRIN would be pushed to 1.45 range and signal an intermediate term low. Current 100 day TRIN is coming in at 1.43 an interring the bullish intermediate term level. On today’s decline the Trin closed at 5.39 which predict a low in the next couple of days. If the SPX reaches the 8/9 low near 1100 in the next couple of days then that would add to the bullish setup. Stay flat for now.




Longer term indicators are showing bullish signs. The 100 day average of the TRIN near 1.40 and higher appear near intermediate term lows and this reading closed today at 1.43 and in the bullish intermediate term level. When the 100 day moving average of the TRIN starts to trend down then that implies the bottom has been seen and the uptrend in the market has started and right now the 100 day average of the TRIN is still trending higher. The equity put/call ratio (CPCE) on a 15 day moving average above .8 also have appeared near intermediate term low and this level was hit at the August low. The 15 day moving average of the Total put/call ratio (CPC) readings above 1.2 is bullish intermediate term which was also hit in August. Doesn’t appear an extended down leg is beginning but rather an intermediate term low is close to completing. Still looking for a test of the 8/9 low near 1100 on SPX which may complete the bottoming process. Staying flat for now.







Above is the weekly chart of the ETF for Gold (GLD). Bottoms form in GLD when the Weekly RSI hits near 50 (current weekly RSI reading is 48.97) when the weekly mid Bollinger bands are in an uptrend (like now). Also GLD did hit our support level which was the previous high in June and July near the 160 to 155 range. GLD could back and fill a bit but in general GLD has hit support and another uptrend should start from here. If you haven’t bought GLD yet this area should be near the low, unfortunately we bought early but are still expecting GLD to break news highs on the next rally phase. Long GDXJ at 36.24 on 9/21/11. Long GLD at 173.59 on 9/21/11. Long BRD at 1.67 on 8/3/11. Long YNGFF .44 on 7/6/11. Sold on 8/8/11 SLV at 38.32 for gain of 11.4%-Long SLV at 34.39 on 7/5/11. Long EGI at 2.16, on 6/30/11. Long GDX at 57.01- stopped at 59.50 for gain 4.4%. Long GLD at 147.14 on 6/29/11; stop 170 hit = gain 15.5% . Long KBX at 1.13 on 11/9/10. Long LODE at 2.85 on 1/21/11. Long UEXCF at 2.07 on 1/5/11. We will hold as our core position in NXG, CDE and KGC because in the longer term view these issues will head much higher. Holding CDE (average long at 27.7. Long cryxf at 1.82 on 2/5/08. KGC long at 6.07. Long NXG average of 2.26. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/ORD.html

George.

[chichi2]

http://blog.stocktradersalmanac.com/media/image/blog_20110926_Rosh-Yom_Kippur.jpg

[chichi2]

The Ord Oracle By Tim Ord (09/21/11)_TY_George



* Wednesday, September 21, 2011


For 30 to 90 days horizons SPX: Flat
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Gold ETF GLD long at 173.59 on 9/21/11
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat





A “Selling Climax” occurred at the 8/9 low which came in near 110 on the SPY and 1100 on SPX and most “Selling Climax” low are tested at some point. Today market sold off and produce a TRIN close of 4.00. Closing TRIN close above 3.00 normally produce a low in the market the same day to as late as two days later. This indicator doesn’t work all the time but does give clues that the market is approaching a low. Ideally we would like to see the 8/9 Selling Climax low tested and possibly end up with a bullish signal. If this decline continued, most like the 100 day average of the TRIN would be pushed to 1.45 range and signal an intermediate term low. Also nice that the three days going into the recent highs that the ticks approached the +900 close which was a bearish sign. Current 100 day TRIN is coming in at 1.41 an interring the bullish intermediate term level. Stay flat for now.





Above is the shorter term look at the buy signal generated on the weekly GDX/GLD ratio. The set up comes when the weekly RSI of the GDX/GLD ratio hits 30 or below, which appeared at the end of June. The buy signal is triggered when the weekly Slow Stochastics of the GDX/GLD ratio closes above 20 and this buy trigger came the first week of July and at a price level on GDX near 56. The Slow Stochastics turned down below 20 and then turned up above 20 again in late August and triggered another buy signal near 65 on GDX. Also the weekly MACD produced a positive divergence and had a bullish crossover in late August and triggered a buy signal also near 65 on GDX.



On last nights report we said, “Above is the Commitment of Traders report last dated September 16. Over the last two years when the Commercials had short interests in the minus 2200 range or less the market was near an intermediate term low. We where looking for a pull back near the 1650 range on gold but with the Commercials reducing their short positions in an area where lows have formed, then its not likely gold will pull back much more from current levels. We may be going long GLD soon. Also gold stocks may have started on the next wave up and gold most likely will participate.” Today we looked into our gold studies which suggested the sideways consolidation since mid August is about done and the next rally up should be starting soon. We went long GLD on tonight’s close at 173.59.
Long GDXJ at 36.24 on 9/21/11. Long BRD at 1.67 on 8/3/11. Long YNGFF .44 on 7/6/11. Sold on 8/8/11 SLV at 38.32 for gain of 11.4%-Long SLV at 34.39 on 7/5/11. Long EGI at 2.16, on 6/30/11. Long GDX at 57.01( stop at 59.50). Long GLD at 147.14 on 6/29/11; stop 170 hit = gain 15.5% . Long KBX at 1.13 on 11/9/10. Long LODE at 2.85 on 1/21/11. Long UEXCF at 2.07 on 1/5/11. We will hold as our core position in NXG, CDE and KGC because in the longer term view these issues will head much higher. Holding CDE (average long at 27.7. Long cryxf at 1.82 on 2/5/08. KGC long at 6.07. Long NXG average of 2.26. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/ORD.html

George.

[chichi2]

The Ord Oracle By Tim Ord (09/14/11)_TY_George



* Wednesday, September 14, 2011


For 30 to 90 days horizons SPX: Flat
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Gold ETF GLD long at 147.14 on 6/29/11; stop hit at 170 = gain 15.5%.
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat

What has worked well short term is that when the Ticks close above +1000 and the TRIN close below .50 the same day a short term top in the SPX is near. We have identified with blue arrow when these condition materialized. Yesterday the ticks closed at +1103, however the TRIN closed at .93. Today the TRIN closed at .49 but the TICK closed at +658 so the rule is not ideal as the last two days had the TRIN and Tick readings but are a day apart. However, High tick closes above +1000 and low TRIN readings below .5 are still bearish and suggest the short term rally my not go far. On August 9 a “Selling Climax” formed at the 1100 level on SPX and most all “Selling Climax” are tested at some point. If the test comes on lighter volume we could end up with a buy signal. The 100 day average of the TRIN is coming in near 1.40 and close to where intermediate term bottoms form. We would like to see the 1100 Selling Climax low tested as there would be a possible intermediate term bullish signal develop at that level. We don’t see a safe trade and will remain flat for now.




GLD appears to have peaked near 185. Previous times on GLD when the weekly RSI got above 75 and the weekly Slow stochastics turned down, a multi week pull back occurred and we are expecting that here. Strong support comes in near the previous trading range highs which are near 155 level. In weekly up-trends the RSI normally finds support near the 50 range with a low in GLD and something we will be looking for on the retracement. Bigger trend is up in GLD, but a pull back near 155 in the coming weeks is possible.



Above is the monthly Canadian SPTGD/GLD ratio with the Canadian gold index SPTGD second window down from top. The SPTGD/GLD ratio hit the 2008 low and shows gold stocks are as cheap now as there where at the 2008 bottom. Since this chart began (started in mid 2000) the Monthly RSI of the SPTGD/GLD ratio has hit 30 only three times. The first time came in early 2008 but the monthly Slow Stochastics never turned up and therefore no signal was generated. The second time the Monthly RSI hit 30 came in late 2008 and the Slow Stochastics turned up late 2008 and triggered a buy signal. Just recently the Monthly RSI of the SPTGD/GLD ratio hit 30 again and has set up a bullish signal. Right now the monthly Slow Stochastics is above 20 (currently at 21.32) and on a buy signal, but since this is a monthly chart, the Slow Stochastics needs to stay above 20 on the close of 9/30 to trigger the buy signal. Previous times when the monthly RSI got to 30 and turned up it trended higher for several months. The SPTGD/GLD ratio is showing strength and at the 2008 levels which show this index is at the best value compared to HUI/GLD, XAU/GLD and GDX/GLD ratio, which are all well above their 2008 lows. Short term gold stocks may pull back, but next rally up may see gold stocks way outperform gold in a big way. We are long GDX at 57.01 with a stop at 59.50. If the stop is hit would imply a pull back to previous low near 54 which we will look for another bullish setup.
Long BRD at 1.67 on 8/3/11. Long YNGFF .44 on 7/6/11. Sold on 8/8/11 SLV at 38.32 for gain of 11.4%-Long SLV at 34.39 on 7/5/11. Long EGI at 2.16, on 6/30/11. Long GDX at 57.01( stop at 59.50). Long GLD at 147.14 on 6/29/11; stop 170 hit = gain 15.5% . Long KBX at 1.13 on 11/9/10. Long LODE at 2.85 on 1/21/11. Long UEXCF at 2.07 on 1/5/11. We will hold as our core position in NXG, CDE and KGC because in the longer term view these issues will head much higher. Holding CDE (average long at 27.7. Long cryxf at 1.82 on 2/5/08. KGC long at 6.07. Long NXG average of 2.26. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/ORD.html

George.

chart not included in Sept 14 post by Ord, but is here...

[chichi2]

The Ord Oracle By Tim Ord (09/07/11)_TY_George



* Wednesday, September 7, 2011


For 30 to 90 days horizons SPX: Flat
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Gold ETF GLD long at 147.14 on 6/29/11; stop hit at 170 = gain 15.5%.
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat



In general the TRIN stays above 1.00 in a declining market and below 1.00 in a rising market and the TRIN/SPY ratio helps to identify that trend visually. Therefore when the SPY is in an uptrend than TRIN/SPY trends down and vice versa. Divergence show up when the SPY makes a higher high and the TRIN/SPY ratio makes a higher low (TRIN/SPY ratio should make lower low as SPY makes higher high to keep the parallel). Notice in the current consolidation that the SPY has made a higher high and the TRIN/SPY ratio made a higher low which is a bearish sign. A similar occurrence appeared at the July high (see chart). SPY may make an attempt to test the Neckline of the Head and Shoulders top (near 126 range on SPY) and if the TRIN/SPY ratio makes a higher low as SPY makes a higher high then a sell signal could develop. Obama gives his job speech tomorrow night at 7:00 pm Eastern and could produce affects in the market. For now we will remain flat the SPX.




GLD appears to have peaked near 185. Previous times on GLD when the weekly RSI got above 75 and the Chaikin Oscillator traded above 100m, a multi week pull back occurred and we are expecting that here. Strong support comes in near the previous trading range highs which are near 155 level. In weekly up-trends the RSI normally finds support near the 50 range and a low in GLD and something we will be looking for on the retracement. Bigger trend is up in GLD, but a pull back near 155 in the coming weeks is possible.




Above is the monthly XAU/GLD ratio dating back to late 1983. The monthly XAU chart is second window up from the bottom. The XAU/GLD ratio shows when gold stocks are expensive or cheap compared to gold. The speed of the rise and fall of this ratio determine by the RSI help to find bullish and bearish signals. When this ratio plunges and the monthly RSI falls below 35 then a bottom is not far off and sets up the signals. The second part of the signal comes when the Monthly slow Stochastics of the XAU/GLD ratio turns up from below 20. In September the monthly RSI hit 33 (below 35) and the monthly Slow Stochastics hit 17 meeting the requirements. Right now the monthly RSI sets at 36.58 and the Slow Stochastics sets at 20.77. Since this chart is on the monthly timeframe then the Slow Stochastics needs to close above 20 on the close of September 30 to generate the buy signal. The previous six signals were all successful and four lead to over 100% gains. The two that lead to less then 100% gain came in 1998 and 1999. It is worth noting that in the last 28 years only one time before (2008 low) has gold stocks been this cheap compared to gold. We are long GDX at 57.01 with a stop at 59.50. If the stop is hit would imply a pull back to previous low near 54 which we will look for another bullish setup.
Long BRD at 1.67 on 8/3/11. Long YNGFF .44 on 7/6/11. Sold on 8/8/11 SLV at 38.32 for gain of 11.4%-Long SLV at 34.39 on 7/5/11. Long EGI at 2.16, on 6/30/11. Long GDX at 57.01( stop at 59.50). Long GLD at 147.14 on 6/29/11; stop 170 hit = gain 15.5% . Long KBX at 1.13 on 11/9/10. Long LODE at 2.85 on 1/21/11. Long UEXCF at 2.07 on 1/5/11. We will hold as our core position in NXG, CDE and KGC because in the longer term view these issues will head much higher. Holding CDE (average long at 27.7. Long cryxf at 1.82 on 2/5/08. KGC long at 6.07. Long NXG average of 2.26. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/ORD.html

George.

[chichi2]

$SPX Charts (10m,60m,D,D,W,M)


10 min for 5 days


60 min since August 08, 2011


Daily since Feb 21, 2011


Daily since Apr 01, 2010


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